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§8.3 fills the hours a day-ahead feed has not published yet with yesterday's profile and flags them provisional, and forbids any irreversible action on such a price. The whole risk of this ticket is one line - a carried point and a published point are three fields and a bool, so `provisional=y.provisional` copies yesterday's False onto today's guess and produces stale data presented as current. That is SAFETY-18's frozen-but-fresh meter one layer up. So the flag is never passed through. Carried points come from a constructor with no provisional parameter; published points pass through BY IDENTITY, so no copy exists that could lose one; an audit re-derives the expected flag for every emitted point and raises rather than repairing; and the check walks the module's own AST so the pass-through idiom cannot come back looking ordinary. A published point may itself be provisional (eneco_eddy's imbalance print is), so the rule for a published hour is "whatever the feed said", never False. The fill keys on the Brussels wall clock rather than t-24h, so the 23- and 25-hour days are right; a late publication rebuilds the series, moving the number and the flag together. AC2 and AC3 landed on TARIFF-03's existing verdict surface rather than beside it. Refusal 3 became "fewer than two FIRM hours" - refusing on "any point is provisional" would have switched arbitrage off every morning on every dynamic site - and refusal 5 is new: the spread must clear a threshold widened by the widest active uncertainty source (max, never a product). The permitting variant now refuses to be constructed around a provisional point at all, and the cheap-window flag became per-hour for the same reason. The irreversible action is a value carrying the hours it commits, derived from maintenance.py's own DRAIN_TIMEOUT_MIN; the gate blocks a maintenance drain whose window reaches into a carried hour, and the phase machine stays idle. It is the price-justified entry point only - a gate that blocked on no_data would stop the monthly cycle on every default install. Zero new config options; TEST-14's signature scan ported to cover both Gate's and Arbitrage's constructors, closing _Refused.reason's open hole. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC