SAFETY-02: a loop can be fresh, tracking and inside its rating and still push the wrong way
The stale-input watchdog asks whether the meter is still talking. The saturation freeze asks whether the inverter can follow. The output clamp asks whether the number is too big. A loop can pass all three while charging the battery out of the grid, because the only thing wrong is the sign. On 2026-08-20 a commercial controller did exactly that four times in one day, for up to 77 minutes at a stretch, reaching a commanded -14 768 W against a ±5000 W inverter. app/watchdog.py compares the emitted setpoint against the authoritative P1 figure and, when they oppose each other with both over 300 W for 180 s continuously, files a failsafe SET claim at P_SAFETY, commands 0 W and latches there until an operator starts control again. Validated against that day rather than against an argument: sim/replay_sign.py in the infra repo drives this module over the committed captures of both 2026-08-20 and the healthy 2026-08-23 and reaches 18 trips on the fault day - every one inside a window NOTES.md §4.7 accounts for - and 0 on the healthy day. The four episodes do share one signature: 0.3 / 0.9 / 10.5 / 0.0 % sign agreement inside them against 92.9 % healthy. Three decisions the ticket could not make: - It is DISARMED whenever the grid-following loop is not what is driving. Sign agreement is a property of a loop that follows the meter, and a maintenance grid charge opposes the meter by design - 2500 W of charge into a house drawing 500 W is +3000 W on the meter against a -2500 W command, for hours. The gate tests the emitted number, not the winning claim's name, because a limit claim can let the loop "win" and still replace its value. - The trip LATCHES. Commanding 0 W removes the command side of the comparison, so the disagreement always clears the moment the trip works. - sign_disagree_w at or above max_w is refused at startup. The arbiter never lets a command exceed max_w, so such a threshold leaves the watchdog incapable of firing while the status page still reports it armed. What it does not catch, said out loud: an inverter that ACTS opposite to its command moves the meter further the same way, leaving command and meter in agreement. That is the saturation freeze's job. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Du77usMj8XNKNFZGmUiWDa
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"""SAFETY-02 - the sign-disagreement watchdog.
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WHAT IT CATCHES, in one sentence: a grid-following loop that is pushing power in
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the wrong direction, which every other guard in this system is blind to.
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The stale-input watchdog (SAFETY-01) asks "is the meter still talking?". The
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saturation freeze asks "can the inverter follow?". The output clamp asks "is the
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number too big?". A loop can pass all three and still be charging the battery
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out of the grid while the house imports - the meter is fresh, the inverter is
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tracking beautifully, and the magnitude is inside the rating. The only thing
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that separates that from healthy operation is the SIGN.
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⚠️ THIS IS NOT A HYPOTHETICAL. On 2026-08-20 the vendor controller (Illusmart)
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did exactly this four times in one day (NOTES.md §4.7). Both captures of that
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bus are committed - `sim/scenarios/bus-2026-08-20.log.gz` and the healthy
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`bus-2026-08-23.log.gz` in the infra repo - and `sim/replay_sign.py` drives this
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module over both of them. Every number in this file was measured on those two
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days, not chosen:
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day samples gated in sign agreement
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2026-08-23 4 127 / 16 349 92.9 % (healthy)
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2026-08-20 6 892 / 15 598 55.6 % (the whole fault day)
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episode A 15:26-16:43 0.3 %
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episode B 17:11-18:28 0.8 %
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episode C 20:01-20:31 11.0 %
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episode D 20:55-21:11 0.0 %
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That is the signature, and it is the SAME signature in all four episodes: not a
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noisier version of healthy, a near-total inversion.
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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WHY IT LIVES HERE AND NOT IN THE FIRMWARE OR THE WITNESS
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Three vantage points see three different things. The firmware knows what it
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WROTE, the witness Pi knows what was ON THE WIRE and whether the inverter ACKed
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it, and the add-on knows what it INTENDED and holds the authoritative meter.
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This check is not command-versus-wire; it is command-versus-physics. It needs
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the emitted setpoint and the P1 net figure in the same place, and it needs the
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authority to command zero when they fight:
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- the witness is read-only by charter and cannot command anything, so it could
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raise the alarm but never take the trip action the AC requires;
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- the firmware has the wire but not the meter. §5.1 makes P1 the only
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authoritative grid figure and the board only ever receives its AGE
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(`sensor.goodwe_p1_sample_age`), never its value. Putting the check there
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would mean shipping the meter to the ESP32 for no other reason, and it would
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be C++ per install rather than one generic guard;
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- the add-on has both halves already, plus an arbiter that can outrank every
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strategy with a P_SAFETY claim.
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The cost of standing here is real and worth stating: this watchdog compares what
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we MEANT to put on the wire against the meter. If the firmware or the driver
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inverts the sign on the way out, the add-on's own view still agrees with itself
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and this check stays silent. That gap is a wire-versus-intent problem and it
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belongs to the witness, not here.
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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WHAT "DISAGREEMENT" MEANS, PRECISELY
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disagree = following
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and commanded_w * grid_w < 0
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and abs(commanded_w) > min_w
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and abs(grid_w) > min_w
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Four gates, and each one exists to exclude a specific thing that is NOT a fault:
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1. `following`. ⚠️ THE GATE THAT IS EASIEST TO FORGET AND MOST EXPENSIVE TO
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OMIT. Sign agreement is a property of a GRID-FOLLOWING loop. It is not
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expected of a strategy that deliberately commands against the meter -
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maintenance is exactly that. A maintenance grid charge of 2500 W into a house
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drawing 500 W puts +3000 W on the meter against a -2500 W command: opposed,
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both far over any sane threshold, and sustained for HOURS. Armed
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unconditionally this watchdog would trip on every single maintenance cycle,
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which is not a tuning problem, it is the wrong question being asked. So the
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caller says whether the grid-following loop actually won the arbitration this
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cycle, and the timer only accumulates when it did.
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2. The strict `< 0` product. "Opposed" and "neither side is zero" in one
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expression.
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3. The 300 W magnitude gate ON BOTH SIDES. Near zero the sign is noise, and near
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zero is where a healthy loop LIVES - the deadband holds the command still
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while the meter wanders either side of `target_grid_w`. On the healthy day
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only 4 127 of 16 349 samples (25 %) are even gated in; the other 75 % are the
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converged band where sign carries no information. This is also why the
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deadband cannot produce a false trip: inside it the meter is by definition
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under 300 W.
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4. The 180 s continuity requirement. This is what excludes the legitimate
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transient. A load step reverses the meter's sign instantly while the command
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is still where the last cycle left it; slew limiting then needs a few cycles
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to cross over. Measured on the healthy day, the LONGEST such crossing is 30 s
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- and that is with a vendor controller far cruder than ours. 180 s is six
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times that. It is not a fitted threshold: at 60 s the healthy day still
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produces zero trips, and at 300 s the fault day still produces 13.
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⚠️ A BATTERY THAT REFUSES A COMMAND CANNOT TRIP THIS, and that is structural
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rather than lucky. At SoC 10 % in Standby, a 1350 W discharge command into a
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1350 W import is DECLINED: the battery does nothing, so the meter stays at
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+1350 W and the command stays at +1350 W. Same sign. Agreement. A refusal leaves
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the meter where it was; only the inverter ACTING moves it, and acting in the
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commanded direction moves it toward zero, not through it. The failure mode this
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check keys on is the opposite of a refusal - it is the inverter obediently doing
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a wrong thing.
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⚠️ A FROZEN METER cannot trip it either, for the same reason read the other way:
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a stuck reading of +800 W makes the loop command discharge and keep commanding
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discharge. Command and meter converge on AGREEING. Freezes are SAFETY-12's and
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SAFETY-01's problem, and this watchdog neither helps nor hinders there.
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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STATE, TRIP AND LATCH
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One timestamp, not a sample counter. The cycle rate is not fixed - a meter
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arrival, or `cycle_floor_s` elapsing, whichever comes first - so N samples is a
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different wall-clock window on every path, and the AC is written in minutes.
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The latch is not optional and not a nicety. Commanding 0 W removes the command
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side of the comparison (|0| is not > 300), so the disagreement disappears the
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instant the trip works. Un-latched, this watchdog would trip, clear itself, and
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hand the actuator straight back to the loop that was driving the wrong way -
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three minutes later, forever. `tripped` therefore stays true until an operator
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`reset()`s it by starting control again, which is a deliberate human act after
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looking at why.
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"""
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from dataclasses import dataclass
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from datetime import datetime
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@dataclass(frozen=True)
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class SignWatchdogConfig:
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"""Defaults, not constants - config.yaml carries both (SAFETY-02 AC 5)."""
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min_w: float = 300.0
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hold_s: float = 180.0
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class SignWatchdog:
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"""One instance per actuator, evaluated once per control cycle.
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⚠️ NOT SHARED ACROSS CADENCES. `disagree_since` is a wall-clock start time,
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so driving one instance from two loops at two rates would have each one
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resetting the other's window. If a fast on-device path ever wants this
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check, it gets its own instance - the same exactly-one-writer discipline the
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arbiter applies to the actuator, applied to the detector's own state.
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"""
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def __init__(self, cfg: SignWatchdogConfig | None = None):
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self.cfg = cfg or SignWatchdogConfig()
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self.disagree_since: datetime | None = None
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self.tripped = False
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self.reason = ""
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# -- the whole check, and it is a pure function of its arguments ----------
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def evaluate(self, commanded_w, grid_w, following: bool,
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now: datetime) -> bool:
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"""Advance the detector one cycle. Returns True while tripped.
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`commanded_w` the EMITTED setpoint - what is standing on the wire now,
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after deadband, slew, quantisation and the arbiter. Not
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the optimizer's raw wish: the wire carries the emitted
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value, so anything else can disagree with the meter for a
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reason that is not a fault.
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`grid_w` net P1, + = importing. None when the meter is stale or
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missing, which CLEARS the timer rather than accumulating
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- a frozen figure held against a moving command would
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otherwise manufacture a disagreement in about three
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minutes, on top of SAFETY-01 having already commanded
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zero for the same cause.
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`following` did the grid-following loop actually win this cycle? See
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gate 1 in the module docstring.
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`now` the caller's clock, so this stays testable and replayable.
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"""
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if self.tripped:
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# Latched. Do not re-evaluate: the trip removed the evidence.
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return True
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cfg = self.cfg
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disagree = (
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following
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and commanded_w is not None and grid_w is not None
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and commanded_w * grid_w < 0
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and abs(commanded_w) > cfg.min_w
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and abs(grid_w) > cfg.min_w
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)
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if not disagree:
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self.disagree_since = None
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return False
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if self.disagree_since is None:
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self.disagree_since = now
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return False
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held = (now - self.disagree_since).total_seconds()
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if held < cfg.hold_s:
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return False
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self.tripped = True
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self.reason = (
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f"SIGN_DISAGREEMENT: commanded {commanded_w:+.0f} W against a meter "
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f"reading {grid_w:+.0f} W for {held:.0f} s continuously "
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f"(limits: both over {cfg.min_w:.0f} W, held over {cfg.hold_s:.0f} s)"
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)
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return True
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@property
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def held_s(self) -> float:
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"""How long the current disagreement has been standing, for the UI."""
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if self.disagree_since is None:
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return 0.0
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return (datetime.now(self.disagree_since.tzinfo)
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- self.disagree_since).total_seconds()
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def reset(self) -> None:
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self.disagree_since = None
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self.tripped = False
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self.reason = ""
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