- DECISIONS: the Cheap hours change and why; the no-sun replay (the gain is Leftover solar buying the evening's shortfall; the forecast added 0.14 EUR); the reconstruction bias stated plainly. - DOCS: Cheap hours ignores the forecast; a reading from before midnight is stale. - The forecast line: "Solar still to come today: ..." (it is what is left, and it stays within the 12-word limit). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
130 lines
8.5 KiB
Markdown
130 lines
8.5 KiB
Markdown
# OPT-11 - battery modes, per battery
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A battery's mode (on/off, Solar first, Leftover solar) is a soft unit limit at
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`P_MODE` = 35 that always holds 0 W. A SET above 35 (a safety stop) overrides
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it; a limit above 35 (the peak guard) makes it give way only as far as that
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limit needs, and a battery its mode holds back then carries only what the
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others cannot (`arbiter._unit_modes()`, `_site_mode()`). Design and owner answers: `goodwe-session/OPT-11-design.md` (2026-09-27);
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P1 is its section 6 P1, and the pull request lists what was measured.
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- Off by default (`battery_modes_enabled`); off, commands are byte-identical to
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a5dddad (`test_modes.py` part 1).
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- Off is a mode range, so the peak guard can still use an Off battery when the
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others cannot cover the floor (design sections 2-3). Whether Off should be
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absolute is an open owner question.
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- Review (PR #149): releasing only when the peak floor bound S let a trade won
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above the floor keep the modes and place less than the floor, and let a
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capped grid charge release an Off battery. Both are graded in
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`test_arbiter.py` part 11. The loop bound leaves a side that reaches the
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rail to the rail, so SAFETY-03 still flags a loop winding into it.
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- P2 (HA entities): a select and a switch per battery, only while modes are
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on; commands go through `handle_action()`, the page's path. A retained
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command is dropped, not applied: the store already holds the last choice,
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and a replay after a restart could otherwise undo a newer one. The config
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topics announced are kept in the store (`mqtt_mode_configs`), so turning
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modes off removes exactly those, and an install that never turned them on
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publishes what ed739d4 did (`test_mqtt.py` part 10). A removed topic stays
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in that list and its empty config is re-sent on each start, so a start with
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no broker cannot lose it; re-sending is harmless. The HA options are the
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page's English names, pinned by a test, and are not renamed with the page:
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automations send them.
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- In P1 only Off closes a direction; Leftover solar differs by charging last.
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- P3 (price runs, `priceruns.py`, `modetrade.py`): each battery's range is
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narrowed by its role this tick (hold, give, charge, rest, sell); main.py
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files the intersection with the switch, so it still holds 0 W. With modes on
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the site trade is filed by the modes, sized from the loop bound (so no
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battery a mode or a refusal holds is asked for watts, P1's unmet share) and
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the guard's headroom; `arbitrage.decide()` runs only with modes off, which
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stays byte-identical to 7a00f12 (`test_modes_p3.py` part 1).
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- SAFETY-46 item 2 is decided as the owner answered (2026-09-25): a trade is
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a run of consecutive firm slots. It applies with battery modes on; the
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modes-off trade keeps its one-period shape, because that path must not move.
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- Choices that were measured, not assumed (tools/opt11p3_replay.py):
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- a sale needs the guard to have measured the quarter, not to be clear: a
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5 kW discharge alone reads "engaged" on export and flipped the sale every
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5 s;
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- a grid charge makes the others rest, so it starts only at 500 W and, once
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the guard or the headroom stops it, stays off for that 15-minute period
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(without: 13 flips in 4 minutes under a 3.5 kW house);
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- stored energy is valued at the last cheap run for 12 h, and a charge
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needs its own run to clear the spread (without: a night charge was spent
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on flat morning prices, then charging went on at them);
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- a run edge reseeds the loop at the house's level (a 3 kW import spike
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removed; about 0.1 x rating still overshoots as export).
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- Replay (tools/opt11p3_replay.py, 16 recorded days, EPEX hourly prices a
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year earlier, modelled batteries), net EUR, lower is better: P2 19.33, P3
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Solar first + Leftover solar 19.57, with a sale 19.60, the old one-period
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trade 18.14. Review of #153 (same model, with a per-action split):
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- the cheapest hours were at midday on 15 of 16 days, so Leftover solar (acting
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as Cheap hours until P4) bought 12.2 kWh there that the sun would have
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given: 7 kWh more exported, 12 kWh less solar stored. Holding for the
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expensive hours saved 4 kWh of import, not enough. With no grid charge on
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Leftover solar: 19.44;
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- the old trade charged one hour, so the afternoon sun still fit;
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- a sale earned the wholesale price (2.27 EUR for 11.4 kWh) and the house
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then bought the same energy back (2.29 EUR): a wash before wear. It pays
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only when the sale hour's wholesale price beats the later import price,
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levies included (about 0.13 EUR/kWh above that hour's wholesale here);
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- valuing the charge left at the end, wear and real Flemish levies make
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selling worse and do not change the order.
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- Owner decision 2026-09-29 (option A): selling is off until it can be judged
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on the price the grid pays (`packmode.SELLING_ENABLED`, code kept), and
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Leftover solar takes solar only until P4's forecast
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(`packmode.GRID_CHARGE_MODES`); Cheap hours only still charges from the grid. Replayed
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(16 days, as above): Solar first + Leftover solar 19.44 EUR net against
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P2's 19.33; Solar first + Cheap hours only 19.57.
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- Not done in P3: the forecast (P4), and a headroom too short for the run
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moving the rest to the next cheap periods.
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## P4: the solar forecast and the day plan (2026-09-29)
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- Input: a Home Assistant forecast sensor (`pv_forecast_entity`, kWh left
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today; `pv_forecast_tomorrow_entity` optional), read by `app/solarfc.py`.
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Supported shapes: Forecast.Solar (state only), Solcast (`detailedForecast`)
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and Open-Meteo Solar Forecast (`wh_period`). The unit is read, not guessed;
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older than 3 h is stale (one missed hourly poll must not flag it).
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- Trust: `solar_trust_pct`, default 70 (owner answer 5).
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- House use: nothing the add-on recorded fitted. `tariff.db` holds grid
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import per quarter, which the batteries shape. So `dayplan.HouseProfile`
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keeps grid + battery per local hour for 7 days in the store
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(`house_profile`), median per hour. It is net of the solar the house used,
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so the solar sum never takes it below the night median. Solar readings are
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not used (TEL-11). The first plan needs one day of it.
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- Verdict (`dayplan.plan()`): trust x sum max(0, forecast - house) x 0.95
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until the expensive run the cheap run is for. Solar first takes it first.
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- Leftover solar may then charge from the grid up to min(ceiling, floor +
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the house's use in the expensive runs / 0.95), less its sun share: only
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the shortfall.
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- Cheap hours only ignores the plan and fills to the ceiling (design
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section 1; review of #156, see the replay below).
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- Solar first never charges from the grid (owner, 2026-09-29).
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- The level is kept unless it moves by min(1 kWh, 10 %). With no plan
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(no, stale or failed forecast, no house profile, no capacity) every mode
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is P3 option A exactly: `test_modes_p4.py` part 1 pins 12 digests from
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5a4cdc2 (modes on, with and without an unavailable forecast).
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- The plan is made with the runs (every 15 min, or at once when the forecast
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comes or goes). A lost forecast drops the levels at the next cycle.
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- Not done: the design's scaling by measured solar from 10:00 (it needs the
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solar readings TEL-11 keeps out), the HA `goodwe_<inv>_plan` sensor, and
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FCST-01.
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- Replay (`tools/opt11p4_replay.py`, 16 recorded days, Solar first + Leftover
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solar, net EUR, lower is better; site solar rebuilt from the recording,
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forecast errors from Elia's day-ahead Belgian solar forecast):
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- year-earlier hourly prices: P2 19.33, P3 option A 19.44, old one-period
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trade 18.14, P4 19.15 (perfect forecast 19.14, 1.5 x too high 19.16,
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missing 19.44);
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- the days' real 2026 quarter-hourly prices (held out): P2 32.26, option A
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32.01, old trade 31.40, P4 29.19 (perfect 29.21, too high 29.28, missing
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32.01).
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- Solar first + Cheap hours only, skipping its sun share (the first
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build): 19.57 (same as P3) and 29.72 against P3's 29.41. The shorter,
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moved runs left B lower, so later midday top-ups rested A while the sun
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shone. Cheap hours now ignores the plan, which is P3 exactly.
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- A forecast of no sun at all gives 19.14 and 29.33. So nearly all of the
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gain is Leftover solar buying the evening's shortfall in the cheap run;
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the forecast itself was worth 0.14 EUR in 16 September days.
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- Bias: the site's solar is rebuilt from the same net use the replay
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plays, and "recorded" keeps its hourly shape and adds only the national
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daily error. Both favour P4; "national" (no house leakage) gives 29.25.
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No threshold was tuned to these days. The 2026-09-24 PV recording could not
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be replayed: it is only in the live Home Assistant.
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