OPT-11 P4: solar forecast and day plan #156

Merged
admin merged 6 commits from opt11-p4-solar-forecast into release/1.0 2026-09-29 23:01:49 +02:00
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glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5.5 b171ada894 Merge release/1.0 (SAFETY-78, #154) into opt11-p4-solar-forecast
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Conflicts: modetrade.decide() takes both the day plan (targets) and
SAFETY-78's draining flag; the Why line keeps SAFETY-78's other_cycle
ahead of the plan's word (test added).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-29 22:37:09 +02:00
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5.5 0b96e3191c OPT-11 P4 review: records and text
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- DECISIONS: the Cheap hours change and why; the no-sun replay (the gain is
  Leftover solar buying the evening's shortfall; the forecast added 0.14
  EUR); the reconstruction bias stated plainly.
- DOCS: Cheap hours ignores the forecast; a reading from before midnight
  is stale.
- The forecast line: "Solar still to come today: ..." (it is what is
  left, and it stays within the 12-word limit).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-29 22:29:00 +02:00
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5.5 a692560960 Merge release/1.0 (SAFETY-81, #155) into opt11-p4-solar-forecast
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-29 22:08:52 +02:00
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5.5 fbd884797d OPT-11 P4 review: Cheap hours ignores the plan; midnight-stale forecast; stricter ids
- Cheap hours only fills to the ceiling with or without a forecast, as the
  design (section 1) says. Skipping the sun's share cost 0.31 EUR on real
  2026 prices (29.72 against P3's 29.41) and saved nothing on the P3 set.
- A forecast reading from before local midnight is stale: until the
  integration refreshes, "left today" is still yesterday's 0 and
  "tomorrow" is really today.
- Forecast entity ids must be sensor.[a-z0-9_]+ (they go into the
  /api/states/<id> path).
- House profile: a stored day that is not a date, or is after today, is
  dropped instead of kept forever.
- Text: the forecast line says "for the rest of today"; the learning line
  no longer promises "tomorrow" (a plan needs one full day).
- Tests for four surviving review mutants (hour sample floor, the dear run
  after the cheap run, share by room, daytime use) and the fixes above.
- Replay tool: `--fc zero` (a forecast of no sun).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-29 22:08:47 +02:00
Claude aabc2a27fd OPT-11 P4: tests for eight surviving mutants; guarded reads
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-29 20:22:16 +02:00
Claude eb10537aee OPT-11 P4: solar forecast and day plan
A Home Assistant solar forecast (Forecast.Solar, Solcast or Open-Meteo
shapes) and the add-on's own hourly house use decide, before each cheap
run, whether the sun will fill each battery before the expensive hours.
Leftover solar then buys from the grid only the shortfall; Cheap hours only
skips the part the sun covers; Solar first never grid-charges. No, stale or
failed forecast: P3 option A exactly (12 digests pinned from 5a4cdc2).

Replay (16 recorded days, forecast errors from Elia's day-ahead BE solar):
year-earlier prices P4 19.15 vs P2 19.33 / option A 19.44 / old trade 18.14;
real 2026 prices P4 29.19 vs 32.26 / 32.01 / 31.40 EUR net.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-29 19:29:32 +02:00