2 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5 04292c4a08 DATA-01: thirty days of the real meter, and what AC 3 actually measures
checks / unit (pull_request) Successful in 3m36s
TARIFF-01 and SAFETY-07 both merged with AC 3 - "monthly peak held under
the soft limit in >= 95 % of intervals over a 30-day simulation replay" -
honestly unmet, because two days of capture existed and it was believed
nothing longer could be produced. That belief was a true statement about
the past read as a claim about the future: HA's recorder still held the
whole month, and the reason nobody found out is that the 2026-08-25
export was a one-off script that left no artefact.

So the exporter is committed and runnable now.
scenarios/p1-net-30d-2026-08/ is 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-30, 485,841
samples, 30/30 days read, 0 failed, 4.13 MB gzipped, in the schema the
two committed days already fixed.

VERIFIED AGAINST THE DAYS THAT EXIST. `--verify` re-fetches 2026-08-20
and 2026-08-23 by this exact route and reproduces both committed files
BYTE FOR BYTE after decompression (865,024 B / 15,600 samples and
894,387 B / 16,351 samples). The gzip containers differ by design: this
exporter writes mtime 0 so its output is reproducible, where the one-off
wrote a wall clock.

A FAILED READ IS NOT AN OBSERVATION. A day whose read fails writes no
file, is recorded "read": "FAILED", and the run exits non-zero; the
entity is proved to exist through /api/states before any empty day is
believed, because a typo would otherwise answer 200 [] thirty times and
produce a consistent dataset of nothing. Nothing is interpolated, so the
month's 13 gaps (1291 s, 99.95 % covered) and its 3 `unavailable`
samples stay visible as holes.

SIZE: COMMITTED, DELIBERATELY, AND MEASURED. A git bundle of the whole
history goes from 1.58 MB (release/1.0 @ 86c43eb) to 5.28 MB - +3.70 MB,
x3.3 - and a Home Assistant supervisor clones that on every install.
Downsampling was not on the table: meter_max_age_s is 30 s, so any
coarser resample turns real coverage into modelled meter-gap and moves
the number being measured. "Outside the repo with a pointer" is what
already happened and is why this card exists. The files sit in a
SUBDIRECTORY so the non-recursive globs in test_tariff.py part 9 and
test_peakguard.py part 6 do not pick them up - CI keeps replaying the two
small days instead of growing ~50 s per PR.

AC 3, MEASURED OVER 30 DAYS (tools/replay_ac3.py, which must reproduce
test_peakguard part 6's 189/190 to be believed):

  uncontrolled  2847/2879 = 98.89 % of quarters at or under 3500 W
  guarded       2850/2879 = 98.99 %
  month peak    5029.8 W -> 4107.3 W

Met on the ">= 95 % of intervals" reading - and the uncontrolled figure
is the finding, because a month with no controller at all passes it. Not
met on the other reading of the same sentence: 4107.3 W is still over the
soft limit. The guard pulls 31 of the 32 over-cap quarters down but lands
only 3 under the cap, because CEILING_MONTH_PEAK defends the running
month peak rather than the cap once one is set. Both suites' honesty
notes are corrected to point at the month instead of at its absence.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC
2026-08-31 11:15:02 +02:00
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5 f4914a174a TARIFF-01: measure the month's billed peak, and make it survive a restart
checks / unit (pull_request) Successful in 2m38s
The 15-minute block average was already built and unwired. p1.QuarterAverager
computes clock-aligned 900 s blocks, time-weighted over irregular telegram
spacing, offtake-only and per-phase; P1Ingest.blocks was a 96-entry list in
memory that a restart erased. So this is the persistence and the monthly
reduction, not a second accumulator - a second one would be a second source of
truth for the exact quantity the money depends on.

BLOCKS, NOT A SLIDING WINDOW. The card says "rolling"; 9.1 bills "the highest
15-minute average offtake" and states its own worked case per QUARTER - one
4998 W quarter moving a monthly peak from 4832 to 5013 W. A trailing window
reports a peak the meter never bills, and reports it HIGH: a burst straddling
:15 fills the window completely while contributing to two block averages at
partial weight.

DELIVERED, NOT INTENDED. tariff.py only ever sees P1Sample - the meter's own
reading - and never a setpoint. SAFETY-20's open question does not arise for a
capacity tariff: the utility integrates the current that flowed.

AN UNREADABLE STORE IS NOT A ZERO PEAK. peak() answers OBSERVED / NO_RECORD /
NOT_OBSERVED with peak_w None unless observed, which is riglock.holder()'s fix
applied to something that spends money. A peak read as 0 W hands SAFETY-07
maximum headroom and disarms the guard at the moment its own storage breaks.

Restart mid-block resumes the accumulator through a new snapshot()/restore()
pair, checkpointed every 15 s and cleared in the same breath as a block close.
The held sample keeps its ORIGINAL timestamp, so an outage is integrated under
the same max_hold_s rule a running process would apply. quarter_start is the
primary key and a re-bank may only ever RAISE a figure.

Calendar months are LOCAL: a quarter starting 22:15 UTC on 31 August bills in
September.

No new option (the limit is the existing peak_cap_w), so config.yaml and
validate.py are untouched and CFG-03 is not widened. No second peak entity:
peak_forecast_entity stays the input to maintenance_charge_floor(), because
repointing that consumer changes what moves energy and belongs to SAFETY-07.

AC 3 is NOT met. It asks for 30 days of replay; two days of this house's real
meter exist and are committed here. test_tariff.py part 9 replays them, reports
the percentage next to the sample size in days, and asserts nothing about 95 %.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC
2026-08-30 19:13:58 +02:00