FCST-03: yesterday's prices, flagged as yesterday's, and unable to move anything

§8.3 fills the hours a day-ahead feed has not published yet with yesterday's
profile and flags them provisional, and forbids any irreversible action on such
a price. The whole risk of this ticket is one line - a carried point and a
published point are three fields and a bool, so `provisional=y.provisional`
copies yesterday's False onto today's guess and produces stale data presented as
current. That is SAFETY-18's frozen-but-fresh meter one layer up.

So the flag is never passed through. Carried points come from a constructor with
no provisional parameter; published points pass through BY IDENTITY, so no copy
exists that could lose one; an audit re-derives the expected flag for every
emitted point and raises rather than repairing; and the check walks the module's
own AST so the pass-through idiom cannot come back looking ordinary. A published
point may itself be provisional (eneco_eddy's imbalance print is), so the rule
for a published hour is "whatever the feed said", never False.

The fill keys on the Brussels wall clock rather than t-24h, so the 23- and
25-hour days are right; a late publication rebuilds the series, moving the
number and the flag together.

AC2 and AC3 landed on TARIFF-03's existing verdict surface rather than beside
it. Refusal 3 became "fewer than two FIRM hours" - refusing on "any point is
provisional" would have switched arbitrage off every morning on every dynamic
site - and refusal 5 is new: the spread must clear a threshold widened by the
widest active uncertainty source (max, never a product). The permitting variant
now refuses to be constructed around a provisional point at all, and the
cheap-window flag became per-hour for the same reason.

The irreversible action is a value carrying the hours it commits, derived from
maintenance.py's own DRAIN_TIMEOUT_MIN; the gate blocks a maintenance drain
whose window reaches into a carried hour, and the phase machine stays idle. It
is the price-justified entry point only - a gate that blocked on no_data would
stop the monthly cycle on every default install.

Zero new config options; TEST-14's signature scan ported to cover both Gate's
and Arbitrage's constructors, closing _Refused.reason's open hole.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC

goodwe_controller/test_static_tariff.py

@@ -306,8 +306,8 @@ check(f"...while the two-period spread is the day/night difference "
       f"{_spread_two}, re-derived here as {DAY_P - NIGHT_P:.4f}",
       near(_spread_two, DAY_P - NIGHT_P, 1e-9))
 
-_v_fixed = p_fixed.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False)
-_v_two = p_two.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False)
+_v_fixed = p_fixed.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset())
+_v_two = p_two.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset())
 check("a fully-fixed tariff REFUSES arbitrage", _v_fixed.kind == "refused")
 check("...for the true reason - the series is flat, so there is nothing to buy "
       "low and sell high, not because a FIXED enum was matched on",
@@ -327,7 +327,7 @@ _flat_dayahead = TariffPlan(
     None, "provider")
 check("a DAY_AHEAD series that happens to be flat is refused too, so the rule "
       "is arithmetic and not a product label",
-      _flat_dayahead.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False).kind == "refused")
+      _flat_dayahead.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset()).kind == "refused")
 
 # The numbers an optimiser needs exist ONLY on the permitting variant.
 check("the allowed verdict carries the spread, the cheapest hour and the "
@@ -352,9 +352,9 @@ check("...and there is no falsy variant, so `if verdict:` cannot look like a "
 # §10.1 priority 2 over priority 3, expressed so OPT-04 cannot skip it.
 check("peak shaving outranks arbitrage: the SAME allowed plan is refused when "
       "the peak guard is holding",
-      p_two.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=True).kind == "refused")
+      p_two.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=True, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset()).kind == "refused")
 check("...and the reason names the ordering rather than the tariff",
-      "priority 2" in p_two.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=True).reason)
+      "priority 2" in p_two.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=True, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset()).reason)
 check("...and the question cannot be skipped: peak_guard_active is required "
       "and keyword-only, so a spread is not obtainable without answering it",
       raises(lambda: p_two.arbitrage(), TypeError)
@@ -497,7 +497,7 @@ check("...and its underlying read has no .points at all, so `min(read.points)` "
       "cannot run against it",
       raises(lambda: _none.read.points, Absence))
 check("...and arbitrage is refused, per §11.4",
-      _none.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False).kind == "refused"
+      _none.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset()).kind == "refused"
       and arbitrage_allowed(_none.read) is False)
 check("...and static_status() says so in words rather than reporting a price",
       static_status(opts(None), THU) == (False, "no static profile"))
@@ -746,12 +746,12 @@ check("...marked PROVISIONAL, which is the one flag that differs",
       _fb.provisional and plan_is_provisional(_fb.read))
 check("...and arbitrage is refused on it, per §11.4, even though a full series "
       "exists and has a real spread",
-      _fb.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False).kind == "refused"
+      _fb.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset()).kind == "refused"
       and near(_fb.spread_eur_kwh(), DAY_P - NIGHT_P))
 check("...while the SAME profile as the configured product allows it - so the "
       "refusal is about provisionality and not about the profile",
       static_plan(opts(TWO_PERIOD), THU, THU + timedelta(days=1)
-                  ).arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False).kind == "allowed")
+                  ).arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset()).kind == "allowed")
 check("...and the provisional plan has no cheap window either: §8.3 forbids an "
       "irreversible action on a provisional price, and a grid top-up is one",
       not any(_fb.cheap_now(at_local(THU, h)) for h in range(24)))
@@ -779,8 +779,8 @@ check("a live feed is used in preference to the static profile",
       and _live_plan.product is PriceProduct.DAY_AHEAD)
 check("...and arbitrage is allowed on it, with the spread derived from the "
       "feed rather than from the profile",
-      _live_plan.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False).kind == "allowed"
-      and near(_live_plan.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False).spread_eur_kwh,
+      _live_plan.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset()).kind == "allowed"
+      and near(_live_plan.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=False, min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, uncertainty=frozenset()).spread_eur_kwh,
                0.023, 1e-9))