glenn schrooyenandClaude
e4b9dee699
The run is sized at the batteries' ratings, not the peak limit, so a run too short to fill a Cheap hours battery is planned again later in the night. Counting that run alone made B's give grow through the night and A's level fall after A had bought (round 2: 55 -> 69 -> 41 -> 37 %, A to 56 %). dayplan._cheap_give_kwh() now also counts the later firm slots before the expensive hours that a run would still be worth charging in (price + the spread control asks at most the give run's dearest slot); the Controller passes the slots and the spread. test_opt34: back to the original house shapes, fixture and expected values. B is Off in the nights that test A's level (a Cheap hours B now covers these hours); B's checks run in new `_b` nights; the 03:00 check runs in a night from midnight; tail starts A at 60 %; late_fresh reads the kept 6.0. test_opt36: slot cases, a whole night on one figure (level never moves), F-1 with B counted (raised level reached and held). test_ux54: the run end is read from the plan and asserted (02:30); the F1/F2 sweep uses a peak limit that does not bind and reads a level shown as the target as at it. Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
421 lines
18 KiB
Python
421 lines
18 KiB
Python
"""OPT-11 P4: the day plan. Will the sun fill each battery before the
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expensive hours? If not, how much should it take from the grid?
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Pure: the forecast (`solarfc`), the house profile, the price runs and the
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batteries in; a level per battery (`Plan.targets`) out. `modetrade.charge_to()`
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turns the level into permission to charge from the grid; main.py rebuilds the
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plan with the price runs (at most every 15 minutes) and keeps a level unless
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it moves by `HYST_KWH` or `HYST_FRAC` (`hold()`).
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The sums (OPT-11-design section 1, "Excess solar", with the owner's answers;
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OPT-28 for the second):
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* `sun`: trust x the solar the house will not use, between now and the
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expensive run the cheap run is for, x the charge efficiency:
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`trust x sum_h max(0, forecast_h - house_h) x EFF`.
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* Solar first batteries take it first, up to the ceiling. What is left is
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shared by the Leftover solar batteries by their room.
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* `short` (OPT-28): what the house draws in the expensive run that the sun
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will not give, `sum_h max(0, house_h - trust x forecast_h)` over every
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hour of the run, early morning and evening. The Leftover solar batteries
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hold it together: `short / EFF` above the floor, shared by capacity, and
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a battery that reaches the ceiling passes the rest to the others. What
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all of them cannot hold (`Plan.uncovered_kwh`) is not bought: another
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battery (Cheap hours, Solar first) or the grid carries it.
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* Cheap hours only ignores the plan and fills to the ceiling, as in P3 and
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the design (section 1). OPT-36: what it, and a Solar first battery after
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the night's use, will give in the expensive hours is taken off `short`
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before the Leftover solar batteries share it (`_cheap_give_kwh()`,
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`_solar_first_give_kwh()`). Skipping the sun's share cost money in the replay
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(PR #156 review: 29.72 against 29.41 EUR on real 2026 prices).
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* A Leftover solar battery charges from the grid up to the level it needs
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for its part of `short`, less its share of the sun before the run:
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`min(ceiling, floor + its part / EFF) - share`. So it buys only the
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shortfall, not up to the ceiling.
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* Solar first never charges from the grid (owner, 2026-09-29).
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* A state-only forecast is read from now for every span (`Forecast.between`
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`since=`, OPT-23), so the hours add up to the day's figure.
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DECISIONS/OPT-23-28-the-night-charge-covers-the-dear-hours.md has the record.
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The house profile is the add-on's own measurement, grid + battery power, per
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local hour, over the last `PROFILE_DAYS` days; the estimate for an hour is the
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median of that hour. It is net of the solar the house used itself, so for
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the solar sum it is never taken below the night-time median (`base()`).
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The site's own solar readings are not used: TEL-11 keeps them out of every
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control decision.
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"""
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import statistics
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from dataclasses import dataclass, field
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
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from .packmode import CHEAP_HOURS, LEFTOVER_SOLAR, SOLAR_FIRST
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from .tariff import BILLING_TZ
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EFF = 0.95 # charge (and discharge) efficiency
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HYST_KWH = 1.0 # a kept level moves only by this much...
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HYST_FRAC = 0.10 # ...or this share of the battery's shortfall
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PROFILE_DAYS = 7
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MIN_HOURS = 20 # hours of a day recorded before it counts
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NIGHT_HOURS = (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 22, 23)
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DEFAULT_TRUST_PCT = 70
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# Site verdicts (the page's forecast line).
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SUNNY, PARTLY, DARK = "sunny", "partly", "dark"
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# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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# The house profile
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# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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def _local(t: datetime):
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return t.astimezone(BILLING_TZ)
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class HouseProfile:
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"""Hourly means of the house's net use (grid + battery power), kept per
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local day and hour: `{"YYYY-MM-DD": {hour: [mean_w, samples]}}`. The
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store holds `dump()`; `load()` takes it back and drops what is bad."""
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def __init__(self, data=None):
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self.days = {}
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self._cur = None # (day, hour, sum, n)
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if isinstance(data, dict):
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self.load(data)
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def load(self, data):
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for day, hours in data.items():
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try:
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datetime.strptime(str(day), "%Y-%m-%d")
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except ValueError:
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continue
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if not isinstance(hours, dict):
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continue
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row = {}
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for h, v in hours.items():
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try:
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hi, w = int(h), float(v)
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except (TypeError, ValueError):
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continue
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if 0 <= hi < 24 and abs(w) < 1e6:
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row[hi] = w
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if row:
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self.days[str(day)] = row
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def dump(self) -> dict:
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return {d: {str(h): round(w, 1) for h, w in sorted(r.items())}
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for d, r in sorted(self.days.items())}
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def add(self, now: datetime, house_w) -> bool:
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"""One reading. Returns True when an hour closed (then store it)."""
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lt = _local(now)
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key = (lt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), lt.hour)
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closed = False
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if self._cur is not None and self._cur[:2] != key:
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day, hour, s, n = self._cur
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if n >= 60: # about 5 minutes of readings
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self.days.setdefault(day, {})[hour] = s / n
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closed = True
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self._cur = None
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self._prune(lt)
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if house_w is None:
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return closed
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if self._cur is None:
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self._cur = (key[0], key[1], 0.0, 0)
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d, h, s, n = self._cur
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self._cur = (d, h, s + float(house_w), n + 1)
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return closed
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def _prune(self, lt):
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"""Keep the last `PROFILE_DAYS` days; a day after today (the clock
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was wrong once) would never age out, so it goes too."""
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keep = (lt.date() - timedelta(days=PROFILE_DAYS)).isoformat()
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today = lt.date().isoformat()
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for d in [d for d in self.days if d < keep or d > today]:
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del self.days[d]
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def ready(self) -> bool:
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"""At least one day with `MIN_HOURS` hours recorded."""
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return any(len(r) >= MIN_HOURS for r in self.days.values())
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def hour_w(self, hour: int):
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vals = [r[hour] for r in self.days.values() if hour in r]
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return statistics.median(vals) if vals else None
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def base(self):
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vals = [w for h in NIGHT_HOURS if (w := self.hour_w(h)) is not None]
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return statistics.median(vals) if vals else None
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def estimator(self):
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"""`f(hour) -> W`, or None when not ready. Fixed at call time."""
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if not self.ready():
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return None
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base = self.base() or 0.0
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table = {}
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for h in range(24):
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w = self.hour_w(h)
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table[h] = base if w is None else w
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return lambda h: table[h], max(0.0, base)
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# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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# The plan
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# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- #
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@dataclass(frozen=True)
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class Plan:
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verdict: str # SUNNY / PARTLY / DARK
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sun_kwh: float # solar the batteries can count on
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fc_kwh: float # the forecast over the same span
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until: datetime # the expensive run the plan is for
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targets: dict # name -> level % (Leftover solar only)
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need_kwh: dict # name -> kWh from the grid (0: none)
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share_kwh: dict # name -> kWh of solar counted for it
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# OPT-28: the expensive hours' shortfall, the part of it each battery
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# covers, and what no battery can hold. All kWh on the house's side.
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short_kwh: float = 0.0
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cover_kwh: dict = field(default_factory=dict)
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uncovered_kwh: float = 0.0
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# OPT-36: what Cheap hours batteries will give in those hours (kWh on the
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# house's side), and, per Leftover solar battery, the grid kWh it buys
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# less because of it.
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cheap_kwh: float = 0.0
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saved_kwh: dict = field(default_factory=dict)
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# ...and the same for Solar first batteries (owner, 2026-11-02): their
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# level when the expensive hours start, after the night's use.
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solar_first_kwh: float = 0.0
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def _hour_slices(t0, t1):
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"""Local-hour slices of [t0, t1): (start, end, local hour).
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Steps in UTC, so `t` always advances (SAFETY-123, DECISIONS)."""
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out, t = [], t0
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while t < t1:
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lt = _local(t)
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left = timedelta(minutes=60 - lt.minute) - timedelta(
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seconds=lt.second, microseconds=lt.microsecond)
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e = min(t.astimezone(timezone.utc) + left, t1)
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out.append((t, e, lt.hour))
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t = e
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return out
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def _spread(amount, room, weight):
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"""Share `amount` over the keys of `room` by `weight`, none past its
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room, what one cannot take passed to the others. Returns `(taken,
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left)`: what each took and what none could."""
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got = {k: 0.0 for k in room}
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left = float(amount)
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live = {k for k, r in room.items() if r > 1e-9 and weight.get(k, 0) > 0}
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while left > 1e-9 and live:
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total = sum(weight[k] for k in live)
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used, full = 0.0, set()
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for k in sorted(live):
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part = left * weight[k] / total
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free = room[k] - got[k]
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if part >= free - 1e-9:
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part = free
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full.add(k)
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got[k] += part
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used += part
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left -= used
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if not full:
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break
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live -= full
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return got, max(0.0, left)
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def _room(p, to_pct):
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if p.capacity_kwh is None or p.soc is None:
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return 0.0
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return max(0.0, float(to_pct) - float(p.soc)) / 100.0 * float(
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p.capacity_kwh)
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def _cheap_give_kwh(runs, now, house, packs, *, floor_pct, ceiling_pct,
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aim_w, until=None, slots=None, spread=None):
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"""OPT-36: what the Cheap hours batteries in `packs` give in the
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expensive hours, in kWh on the house's side: (the level at the start of
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those hours - the floor) x capacity x `EFF`.
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That level is the one its cheap charging reaches: the ceiling, or less
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when the time left cannot get there. That time is the cheap run from now
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(or the whole run ahead of it) and, given the firm price `slots`, each
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later slot before the expensive hours (`until`, a give run) still worth
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charging in: its price plus the spread control asks (`spread`) at most
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the give run's dearest slot, `priceruns.plan()`'s test. The run is sized
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at the batteries' ratings (`priceruns.need_hours()`), not the peak limit,
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so a run too short to fill them is planned again in that time; counting
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the run alone let A's level fall in the night after A had bought. In
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that time the batteries together charge at their ratings, held to what
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the peak aim leaves above the house's use that hour (`aim_w`, None: no
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limit), shared by rating. No cheap run worth charging in: the level now.
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A battery that refuses a direction counts 0."""
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ps = [p for p in packs if p.mode == CHEAP_HOURS and p.refused == 0]
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if not ps:
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return 0.0
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house_w, base_w = house
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gain = {p.name: 0.0 for p in ps}
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rate = {p.name: abs(float(p.rating_w)) for p in ps}
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total = sum(rate.values())
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run = runs.cheap
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spans = [(max(now, run.start), run.end)]
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top = max((eur for s, _e, eur in slots or ()
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if until is not None and until.start <= s < until.end),
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default=None)
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if top is not None and spread is not None:
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spans += [(max(s, now, run.end), min(e, until.start))
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for s, e, eur in slots
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if eur + float(spread) <= top + 1e-9
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and e > run.end and s < until.start]
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if runs.charge_useful() and total > 0.0:
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for t0, t1 in spans:
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for s, e, h in _hour_slices(t0, t1):
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w = total
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if aim_w is not None:
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w = min(w, max(0.0, float(aim_w)
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- max(house_w(h), base_w, 0.0)))
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hrs = (e - s).total_seconds() / 3600.0
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for p in ps:
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gain[p.name] += w * rate[p.name] / total * hrs / 1000.0
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out = 0.0
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for p in ps:
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cap = float(p.capacity_kwh)
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lvl = max(float(p.soc), min(float(ceiling_pct),
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float(p.soc) + gain[p.name] / cap * 100.0))
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out += max(0.0, lvl - float(floor_pct)) / 100.0 * cap * EFF
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return out
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def _solar_first_give_kwh(house, now, start, packs, *, floor_pct):
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"""OPT-36 (owner, 2026-11-02): what the Solar first batteries in `packs`
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will still give when the expensive hours start at `start`, in kWh on the
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house's side. They give at any hour, so the house's use from now to
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`start` (the plan's own profile) is taken off first, shared by the energy
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each holds above the floor, and what is left x `EFF` counts. A battery
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that runs down to the floor before then counts 0; one that refuses a
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direction counts 0."""
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ps = [p for p in packs if p.mode == SOLAR_FIRST and p.refused == 0]
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if not ps:
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return 0.0
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house_w, _base = house
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use = sum(max(0.0, house_w(h)) * (e - s).total_seconds() / 3.6e6
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for s, e, h in _hour_slices(now, start))
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have = {p.name: max(0.0, float(p.soc) - float(floor_pct)) / 100.0
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* float(p.capacity_kwh) for p in ps}
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took, _ = _spread(use / EFF, have, have)
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return sum(have[n] - took[n] for n in have) * EFF
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def plan(forecast, house, runs, now, packs, *, trust_pct, floor_pct,
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ceiling_pct, aim_w=None, slots=None, spread=None):
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"""The day plan, or None when there is none to make: no forecast, no
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house profile yet, no price plan, or no expensive run after the cheap
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run. `house` is `HouseProfile.estimator()`'s answer. `packs` are
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`modetrade.Pack`s. `aim_w`, `slots` (`priceruns.firm_slots()`) and
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`spread` (the price gap control asks, EUR/kWh) size a Cheap hours
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battery's charge (`_cheap_give_kwh()`)."""
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if forecast is None or house is None or runs is None or not runs.on \
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or runs.cheap is None:
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return None
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house_w, base_w = house
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until = next((g for g in runs.give if g.start >= runs.cheap.end), None)
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if until is None:
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return None
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trust = max(0.0, min(1.0, float(trust_pct) / 100.0))
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sun = fc_sum = 0.0
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for s, e, h in _hour_slices(now, until.start):
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pv = forecast.between(s, e, since=now)
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if pv is None:
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return None # the span reaches a day with no forecast
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hrs = (e - s).total_seconds() / 3600.0
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use = max(house_w(h), base_w) * hrs / 1000.0
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sun += max(0.0, pv - use)
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fc_sum += pv
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sun *= trust * EFF
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usable = [p for p in packs if p.use and p.live and p.idle
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and p.soc is not None and p.capacity_kwh]
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sf = [p for p in usable if p.mode == SOLAR_FIRST]
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price = [p for p in usable if p.mode == LEFTOVER_SOLAR]
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sf_room = sum(_room(p, ceiling_pct) for p in sf)
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excess = max(0.0, sun - sf_room)
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rooms = {p.name: _room(p, ceiling_pct) for p in price}
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total_room = sum(rooms.values())
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# OPT-28: what the house draws in the expensive runs, from the one this
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# plan is for until the next cheap run (or a day), that the sun will not
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# give. An hour with sun is read at no less than the night base, as the
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# sun sum above reads it (the profile is net of the sun the house used);
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# an hour without is read as measured. A run hour with no forecast counts
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# no sun.
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horizon = until.start + timedelta(hours=24)
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short = 0.0
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for g in runs.give:
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if g.start < until.start or g.start >= horizon:
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continue
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for s, e, h in _hour_slices(g.start, g.end):
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pv = forecast.between(s, e, since=now) or 0.0
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w = max(0.0, house_w(h))
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if pv > 0.0:
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w = max(w, base_w)
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short += max(0.0, w * (e - s).total_seconds() / 3.6e6
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- trust * pv)
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caps = {p.name: float(p.capacity_kwh) for p in price}
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span = max(0.0, float(ceiling_pct) - float(floor_pct))
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# OPT-36: the Cheap hours and Solar first batteries give first;
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# Leftover solar holds the rest. A Leftover solar battery's own stored energy counts through its
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# level: it buys from where it is to the level it needs.
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cheap = _cheap_give_kwh(runs, now, house, usable, floor_pct=floor_pct,
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ceiling_pct=ceiling_pct, aim_w=aim_w,
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until=until, slots=slots, spread=spread) \
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if price else 0.0
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cheap = min(cheap, short)
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sfirst = _solar_first_give_kwh(house, now, until.start, usable,
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floor_pct=floor_pct) if price else 0.0
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sfirst = min(sfirst, short - cheap)
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others = cheap + sfirst
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room_of = {n: span / 100.0 * c for n, c in caps.items()}
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held, left = _spread((short - others) / EFF, room_of, caps)
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held0 = _spread(short / EFF, room_of, caps)[0] if others > 0.0 else held
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targets, need, share, cover, saved = {}, {}, {}, {}, {}
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for p in price:
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sh = excess * rooms[p.name] / total_room if total_room > 0 else 0.0
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sh_pct = sh / caps[p.name] * 100.0
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top = float(floor_pct) + held[p.name] / caps[p.name] * 100.0
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level = max(0.0, top - sh_pct)
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targets[p.name] = round(level, 2)
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need[p.name] = round(_room(p, level), 3)
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top0 = float(floor_pct) + held0[p.name] / caps[p.name] * 100.0
|
|
saved[p.name] = round(
|
|
_room(p, max(0.0, top0 - sh_pct)) - need[p.name], 3)
|
|
share[p.name] = round(sh, 3)
|
|
cover[p.name] = round(held[p.name] * EFF, 3)
|
|
if sun < sf_room:
|
|
verdict = DARK
|
|
elif any(v > 0.05 for v in need.values()):
|
|
verdict = PARTLY
|
|
else:
|
|
verdict = SUNNY
|
|
return Plan(verdict, round(sun, 3), round(fc_sum, 3), until.start,
|
|
targets, need, share, round(short, 3), cover,
|
|
round(left * EFF if price else 0.0, 3), round(cheap, 3),
|
|
saved, round(sfirst, 3))
|
|
|
|
|
|
def hold(old: dict | None, new: dict, capacity: dict) -> dict:
|
|
"""Hysteresis: a battery keeps its old level unless the new one differs
|
|
by at least `HYST_KWH`, or by `HYST_FRAC` of the larger level's energy
|
|
(whichever is less). A battery new to the plan takes its level at once;
|
|
one that left the plan is dropped at once."""
|
|
out = {}
|
|
for name, level in new.items():
|
|
was = (old or {}).get(name)
|
|
cap = float(capacity.get(name) or 0.0)
|
|
if was is None or cap <= 0:
|
|
out[name] = level
|
|
continue
|
|
moved = abs(level - was) / 100.0 * cap
|
|
step = min(HYST_KWH, HYST_FRAC * max(was, level) / 100.0 * cap)
|
|
out[name] = level if moved >= step else was
|
|
return out
|