diff --git a/goodwe_controller/CHANGELOG.md b/goodwe_controller/CHANGELOG.md index 8d80357..5aff1a4 100644 --- a/goodwe_controller/CHANGELOG.md +++ b/goodwe_controller/CHANGELOG.md @@ -2,6 +2,82 @@ ## Unreleased +**OPT-04's AC4 is met: twelve months of real EPEX BE day-ahead prices are now in +the repository, and the strategy has been replayed against them (DATA-02).** +AC4 asked for "net-positive across 12 months of replayed prices". OPT-04 shipped +it as NOT MET and replayed a synthetic year instead, because `scenarios/` held +only P1 meter captures. That was the right call at the time and the wrong +diagnosis of why: the criterion was being carried alongside a 30-day *meter* +criterion as though both needed waiting, and EPEX BE day-ahead is **public data, +not a capture**. It needed a fetch, not a month. + +`scenarios/epex-be-dayahead-2025-09-01_2026-09-01.json` — **8760 hourly points**, +2025-09-01 to 2026-09-01 Brussels-local, in §9.3's canonical three-field shape. +`scenarios/fetch_epex_be.py` produced it and `--verify` re-derives every claim it +makes about itself without touching the network. + +**Licensing was checked before anything was committed.** The source is +Fraunhofer ISE's Energy-Charts API, which publishes the **BE** zone under +**CC BY 4.0 from Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de** and other zones under +private-use-only terms — so this zone is redistributable with attribution and the +data is committed rather than left as a script plus a checksum. The fetcher +**refuses to write a file** whose per-response `license_info` stops saying +CC BY 4.0. Cross-checked against the upstream: SMARD's own `4996/DE` series +matched this feed on all 96 quarter-hours of 2026-04-10, maximum difference +0.00 EUR/MWh. + +**The figures are raw wholesale and the file says so.** `"all_in": false`, with +the markup/tax assumption carried in `provenance.all_in_assumption` as *numbers +to apply* rather than numbers already applied — TARIFF-02's double-counting trap +in data form. `test_arbitrage.py` section 7B applies it in one visible place and +**asserts arithmetically** that its two additive terms cancel out of every daily +spread, so the trade counts depend on the VAT multiplier alone and not on the +guessed markup. The same replay is run on raw wholesale as well, so how much of +the answer rests on the guess is reported (110 trades all-in, 88 raw). + +**DST is handled by construction, not by a special case.** The fetcher iterates +in UTC and renders through `price.brussels()`, so **2025-10-26 comes out 25 +points and 2026-03-29 comes out 23** — verified by counting per Brussels day +rather than asserting 24, and by checking that October's 02:00 appears twice at +`+02:00` and `+01:00` with two different prices while March's 02:00 does not +appear at all. The window is bounded at *local* midnight: bounding it at 00:00 +UTC produced a 22-hour first day, and a 24-hour day silently missing from the +end, both of which the point-and-gap accounting caught. + +**The result, at the shipped default, whatever it is.** At +`cycle_cost_threshold_eur` **0.10** widened by FCST-03's no-weather **1.5×** to a +required 0.1500 EUR/kWh, the real year completes **110 round trips** and is +**net-positive at +24.88 EUR** of benefit net of the cycle cost (2 kWh a trade). +Unwidened it completes 173. **Nothing was tuned:** the shipped default and the +2.5/1.5 factors are untouched, and every figure comes out of the same `decide()`. + +**What the product owner's open decision now has under it.** The four +independent reports that a static day/night spread of ~0.0840 does not clear +0.10 **all stand** — a static-tariff site still never trades. What was missing +was the other half: a *dynamic* site's daily spread clears the widened +requirement on **121 of 365 days**, median daily all-in spread **0.1130**. The +threshold at which a median day would clear is **0.0754**, and at that value the +same year completes 156 trips for +35.42 EUR. Both numbers are reported; neither +is applied. + +**And the synthetic year stays, because the real one cannot grade §17.** Not one +of the 365 real days has a negative *dearest* hour — 372 negative wholesale hours +and 0 days where the strategy would have sold into one — so "0 discharges into a +negative-price hour" over real prices is a count of something that could not +happen, and deleting the guard would not change it. Section 7B asserts that +degeneracy instead of quietly reporting the zero; section 7's generator is still +the only thing here that puts a negative price where the strategy would sell. + +**Size, measured rather than assumed.** Plain JSON: 893 KB in the working tree +but **74.6 KB as a git object**, against 56.5 KB for a committed `.json.gz`. Git +already compresses blobs, so gzipping saves 18 KB and costs a reviewer the +ability to read the provenance block — including the licence claim they are +meant to check — in the diff. Plain, and `load()` still accepts `.gz` for a +future dataset that earns it. + +**Nothing is wired into the add-on.** `generic_dayahead` remains the live fetch +path; nothing under `app/` imports the script, and the dataset is for replay. + **The capacity-peak guard's forced discharge now has an EMS-side energy floor (SAFETY-24).** SAFETY-07 can command a discharge to hold a billed quarter down, and nothing below it consulted the state of charge — `soc_floor` belongs to the diff --git a/goodwe_controller/scenarios/epex-be-dayahead-2025-09-01_2026-09-01.json b/goodwe_controller/scenarios/epex-be-dayahead-2025-09-01_2026-09-01.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cf22f2d --- /dev/null +++ b/goodwe_controller/scenarios/epex-be-dayahead-2025-09-01_2026-09-01.json @@ -0,0 +1,43849 @@ +{ + "provenance": { + "card": "DATA-02", + "what": "EPEX BE day-ahead auction clearing prices, hourly", + "source": "https://api.energy-charts.info/price?bzn=BE (Energy-Charts API, Fraunhofer ISE)", + "upstream": "Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de", + "licence": "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)", + "licence_checked": "before committing anything; the API's OpenAPI document lists BE among the CC BY 4.0 zones and the remaining zones as private/internal use only, so redistribution of THIS zone is permitted with attribution", + "licence_as_returned": [ + "CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) from Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de" + ], + "attribution": "Data licensed CC BY 4.0 by Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de, retrieved via the Energy-Charts API (Fraunhofer ISE), https://energy-charts.info. Published without changes.", + "cross_check": "SMARD chart_data 4996/DE over 2026-04-10 matched this feed on all 96 quarter-hours, max abs difference 0.00 EUR/MWh (2026-08-31)", + "retrieved_utc": "2026-08-31T08:52:46+00:00", + "fetched_by": "scenarios/fetch_epex_be.py", + "window_utc": { + "start": "2025-08-31T22:00:00+00:00", + "end": "2026-08-31T22:00:00+00:00" + }, + "unit": "EUR per kWh (source publishes EUR/MWh; divided by 1000)", + "all_in": false, + "all_in_note": "RAW WHOLESALE. No supplier markup, no network or transmission tariff, no levies, no VAT. 9.3's canonical point is all-in and this is NOT; the consumer applies the assumption below, visibly.", + "all_in_assumption": { + "form": "all_in = (wholesale + markup + network_and_levies) * (1 + vat)", + "markup_eur_per_kwh": 0.02, + "network_and_levies_eur_per_kwh": 0.1, + "vat_fraction": 0.06, + "status": "ASSUMPTION, NOT MEASURED. Stated so a consumer applies it deliberately; the committed eur_per_kwh has none of it applied.", + "note": "The two additive terms cancel out of any spread, so an arbitrage trade count depends on vat_fraction only. They do NOT cancel out of the negative-price guard (17), which compares one hour's all-in price against zero." + }, + "resolution": { + "note": "EPEX day-ahead moved to a 15-minute market time unit in Oct 2025, part-way through this window.", + "hours_from_hourly_source": 720, + "hours_from_quarter_hourly_mean": 8040, + "aggregation": "unweighted mean of the four quarters; a stated approximation of the hourly product, and a LOWER bound on the spread a 15-minute strategy would have seen" + }, + "timezone": "starts rendered at the Brussels offset by app.price.brussels(); instants carried in UTC, so the transition days come out 23 and 25 points by construction rather than by a special case", + "nulls_dropped": 0, + "gaps": [], + "gaps_note": "hours the source did not publish completely. Dropped, never zero-filled: a missing hour is not a free hour.", + "points": 8760, + "exact_zero_hours": 20, + "negative_hours": 372, + "zero_note": "REAL CLEARINGS AT 0.00 EUR/MWh, not dropped reads. Nulls are dropped and incomplete hours become gaps, so points + gaps == hours in the window and no point stands in for something that failed to arrive.", + "sha256_of_points": "0eb45de898f430a159050519c3e78fde51ebdc48289a178a653be07bd01b789f" + }, + "prices": [ + { + "start": "2025-09-01T00:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.07006, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2025-09-01T01:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.06571, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2025-09-01T02:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.06614, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2025-09-01T03:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.0617, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2025-09-01T04:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.06185, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2025-09-01T05:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.07114, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2025-09-01T06:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.06763, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2025-09-01T07:00:00+02:00", + 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"2026-08-27T20:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.197363, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-27T21:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.188023, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-27T22:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.18443, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-27T23:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.169042, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T00:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.184185, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T01:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.165855, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T02:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.153053, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T03:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.144355, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T04:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.1447, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T05:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.151965, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T06:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.175185, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T07:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.181235, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T08:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.173847, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T09:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.159025, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T10:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.138873, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T11:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.12129, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T12:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.114335, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T13:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.1117, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T14:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.095257, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T15:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.103433, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T16:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.106365, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T17:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.132762, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T18:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.15832, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T19:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.171768, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T20:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.176943, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T21:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.166928, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T22:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.162288, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-28T23:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.14929, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T00:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.134857, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T01:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.113978, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T02:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.101072, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T03:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.093948, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T04:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.09336, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T05:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.096952, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T06:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.098498, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T07:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.101713, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T08:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.060965, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T09:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.00563, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T10:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.0002, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T11:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.000215, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T12:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.001755, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T13:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.00057, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.000417, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T15:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.00962, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T16:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.022357, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T17:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.096727, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T18:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.141097, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T19:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.177973, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T20:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.176127, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T21:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.16947, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T22:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.155823, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-29T23:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.143742, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-30T00:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.117998, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-30T01:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.103493, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-30T02:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.087525, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-30T03:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.078545, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-30T04:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.07043, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-30T05:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.07394, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-30T06:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.072575, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": "2026-08-30T07:00:00+02:00", + "eur_per_kwh": 0.06002, + "provisional": false + }, + { + "start": 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a/goodwe_controller/scenarios/fetch_epex_be.py b/goodwe_controller/scenarios/fetch_epex_be.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d60362c --- /dev/null +++ b/goodwe_controller/scenarios/fetch_epex_be.py @@ -0,0 +1,551 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""DATA-02: fetch 12 months of EPEX BE day-ahead prices, in §9.3's shape. + + python3 scenarios/fetch_epex_be.py --start 2025-09-01 --end 2026-09-01 \ + --out scenarios/epex-be-dayahead-2025-09-01_2026-09-01.json + +Run from `goodwe_controller/`. Rewrites the output file from scratch; the +committed dataset is exactly what this produces, and `--verify` re-derives every +claim the file makes about itself without going to the network. + + +WHAT THIS IS NOT +================ +NOT wired into the add-on, and it must never be. `price.py`'s `GenericDayAhead` +is the live path and it has its own egress check; this is a one-shot archival +fetch that produces a file for REPLAY, run by hand by a developer. Nothing under +`app/` imports it. + + +THE SOURCE, AND WHY THIS ONE +============================ +`https://api.energy-charts.info/price?bzn=BE` - Fraunhofer ISE's Energy-Charts +API. No key, no registration. + +⚠️ THE LICENCE WAS CHECKED BEFORE ANY DATA WAS COMMITTED, because for this +source it is NOT uniform across bidding zones. The API's own OpenAPI document +(`https://api.energy-charts.info/openapi.json`, /price) splits the zones in two: + + "The data for the following bidding zones is licensed as CC BY 4.0 from + Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de and is published without changes: + AT, BE (Belgium), CH, CZ, DE-LU, ..." + + "The data for the other bidding zones is for private and internal use only. + The utilization of any data, whether in its raw or derived form, for + external or commercial purposes is expressly prohibited. Should you require + licensing for market-related data, please direct your inquiries to the + original data providers, including but not limited to EPEX SPOT SE." + +BE is in the FIRST list, so redistribution is permitted with attribution and the +dataset is committed rather than left as a fetch script and a checksum. Every +response also carries the licence per-response in `license_info`, and this +script REFUSES to write a file if that field ever stops saying CC BY 4.0 - a +licence checked once by a human and assumed forever is a licence that changes +silently. Had BE been in the second list, the correct output of this card would +have been this script and a checksum and no data. + +Attribution, carried in the dataset's own `provenance` block and reproduced +here: data CC BY 4.0, Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de, retrieved via Energy-Charts +(Fraunhofer ISE), https://energy-charts.info, published without changes. + +Cross-checked against the upstream on 2026-08-31: SMARD's own chart_data series +`4996/DE` over 2026-04-10 matched this API's BE series on all 96 quarter-hours +with a maximum absolute difference of 0.00 EUR/MWh. "Published without changes" +is a claim worth checking once; `--verify` does not repeat it, because it is a +claim about the SOURCE and not about the file. + + +RAW WHOLESALE, AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT IS NOT BAKED IN +====================================================== +⚠️ WHAT COMES BACK IS RAW WHOLESALE, EUR/MWh, DAY-AHEAD AUCTION CLEARING PRICE. +It is NOT all-in: no supplier markup, no distribution or transmission tariff, no +levies, no VAT. §9.3's canonical point is all-in, and TARIFF-02's whole trap is +a figure that already contains a component being handed to something that adds +it again. + +So this file does NOT add one. `eur_per_kwh` in the output is the wholesale +figure converted from EUR/MWh, `provenance.all_in` is `false` beside it, and the +markup/tax assumption a consumer needs lives in `provenance.all_in_assumption` +as NUMBERS TO APPLY rather than numbers already applied. test_arbitrage.py +section 7 applies them where a reader can watch it happen. + +The assumption's SHAPE is the part that is not arbitrary, and it decides which +conclusions depend on the guessed numbers at all: + + all_in(h) = (wholesale(h) + markup + network_and_levies) * (1 + vat) + + * The two ADDITIVE terms cancel out of a spread: max - min is unchanged by + them. So how often a day clears `cycle_cost_threshold_eur` does NOT depend + on the markup guess - only on the VAT multiplier. + * They do NOT cancel out of §17's negative-price guard, which compares ONE + hour's all-in price against zero. A wholesale hour at -0.02 EUR/kWh is + comfortably positive all-in once ~0.12 of fixed charges is added. + +Both are asserted arithmetically in section 7 rather than believed, and the +trade count is reported on the raw spread as well, so a reader can see exactly +how much of the answer rests on the guess. + +The numbers themselves (2026 Belgian residential dynamic contract, order of +magnitude) are a STATED GUESS, labelled as one everywhere they appear. They are +not a measurement and this card had nothing to measure them with. + + +HOURS, QUARTER-HOURS, AND THE SEAM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE YEAR +============================================================ +⚠️ THE SOURCE CHANGES RESOLUTION PART-WAY THROUGH ANY RECENT 12 MONTHS. EPEX +day-ahead moved to a 15-minute market time unit in October 2025 and the feed +follows: 2025-09-10 comes back as 24 hourly points, 2025-12-10 as 96 +quarter-hourly ones. An importer that assumed either one silently loses three +quarters of the year, or reads a quarter as an hour. + +The canonical format is hourly, so quarter-hours are aggregated: an hour's price +is the unweighted mean of its four quarters. That is a STATED APPROXIMATION of +the hourly product, not the hourly product, and it errs in the direction that +matters here - averaging discards intra-hour variation, so the observed spread +is a LOWER bound on what a 15-minute strategy would see. +`provenance.resolution` records how many hours came from each source shape. + +⚠️ AND A PARTIAL HOUR IS DROPPED, NOT AVERAGED OVER WHAT ARRIVED. An hour with +three of four quarters is an hour nobody published a complete price for; the +mean of three would be an invented number carrying no flag. Dropped hours are +listed in `provenance.gaps` with their timestamps, because a missing hour in a +feed is not a zero price, and a zero price is exactly the value that would make +everything look free. + + +SIZE: WHY THIS IS PLAIN JSON AND NOT A `.gz`, MEASURED +====================================================== +The directory's existing captures are gzipped, so the default would have been to +gzip this too. Measured on the committed file instead of assumed: + + working tree, plain JSON 893 171 bytes + what GIT actually stores for it (zlib, loose object) 74 590 bytes + what git would store for a committed `.json.gz` 56 504 bytes + +⚠️ GIT ALREADY COMPRESSES BLOBS, so gzipping buys 18 KB - 24 % of an object +that is already 75 KB, in a repository whose three existing P1 captures cost +27 KB, 136 KB and 140 KB. Eighteen kilobytes is not worth making the provenance +block unreadable in a pull request, and the licence claim in that block is +precisely the thing a reviewer of this card has to read and check. Plain JSON +also greps, diffs line-by-line when a future refetch changes something, and is +what `--verify` opens. `load()` still handles `.gz` for a future dataset large +enough to want it; this one is not. + +The P1 captures are gzipped for the opposite reason and it is not an +inconsistency: they are hundreds of thousands of telegram lines that no human +reads, and there is no metadata in them to review. + + +TIME +==== +Every instant is carried as UTC and rendered with `app.price.brussels()`, the +module that already owns the EU DST rule without a tz database. There is no +second answer to that question here and there must not be: the point of +`brussels()` is that the 02:00-03:00 hour which happens twice in October is two +instants, and a 24-slot local-hour importer collapses them. + +So a year is 8760 hours only if it contains no transition, or contains both and +they cancel - 25 in October, 23 in March. `--verify` therefore asserts the +PER-DAY counts, not the total, because the total is exactly the number a broken +importer also produces. +""" + +import argparse +import gzip +import hashlib +import json +import os +import sys +import time +import urllib.error +import urllib.request +from collections import Counter, defaultdict +from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone + +sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))) + +from app.price import brussels # noqa: E402 + +API = "https://api.energy-charts.info/price" +BZN = "BE" +LICENCE_MUST_CONTAIN = "CC BY 4.0" +UTC = timezone.utc + +ATTRIBUTION = ("Data licensed CC BY 4.0 by Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de, " + "retrieved via the Energy-Charts API (Fraunhofer ISE), " + "https://energy-charts.info. Published without changes.") + +# ⚠️ A GUESS, LABELLED AS ONE, AND APPLIED BY THE CONSUMER - NOT HERE. +# Order-of-magnitude 2026 Belgian residential dynamic contract. Nothing in this +# repository measured any part of it. +ALL_IN_ASSUMPTION = { + "form": "all_in = (wholesale + markup + network_and_levies) * (1 + vat)", + "markup_eur_per_kwh": 0.020, + "network_and_levies_eur_per_kwh": 0.100, + "vat_fraction": 0.06, + "status": "ASSUMPTION, NOT MEASURED. Stated so a consumer applies it " + "deliberately; the committed eur_per_kwh has none of it applied.", + "note": "The two additive terms cancel out of any spread, so an arbitrage " + "trade count depends on vat_fraction only. They do NOT cancel out " + "of the negative-price guard (17), which compares one hour's " + "all-in price against zero.", +} + + +PACE_S = 3.0 # between chunks, unconditionally +RETRIES = 6 + + +def _get(url: str) -> dict: + """One GET, backing off on 429 and 5xx. + + ⚠️ THIS IS A FREE PUBLIC SERVICE AND IT RATE-LIMITS. The first run of this + script was refused with 429 on its fifth chunk. Backing off is the polite + behaviour; it is also the correct one, because the alternative - catching + the error and carrying on - would produce a file that is silently missing a + month and says nothing about it. A refused request is not an empty month. + """ + req = urllib.request.Request( + url, + headers={"User-Agent": "goodwe-addon/DATA-02 (one-shot archival fetch)"}) + wait = 5.0 + for attempt in range(1, RETRIES + 1): + try: + with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=90) as r: + return json.loads(r.read().decode("utf-8")) + except urllib.error.HTTPError as e: + if e.code not in (429, 500, 502, 503, 504) or attempt == RETRIES: + raise + print(f" HTTP {e.code}; backing off {wait:.0f}s " + f"(attempt {attempt}/{RETRIES})", file=sys.stderr) + time.sleep(wait) + wait *= 2 + raise SystemExit(f"unreachable: {url}") + + +def local_midnight_utc(day: str) -> datetime: + """The INSTANT at which Brussels midnight begins on `day` (YYYY-MM-DD). + + ⚠️ THE WINDOW IS LOCAL, NOT UTC, AND THE FIRST RUN OF THIS SCRIPT PROVED WHY. + Bounding it at 00:00 UTC starts the year at 02:00 CEST, which makes the first + Brussels day 22 hours long - and 22 is not one of the two lengths a + transition produces, so `report()` refused the file. A dataset whose first + day is short is a dataset whose "days per year" arithmetic is quietly wrong + everywhere downstream. + + Derived from `brussels()` by trying the only two offsets Belgium has and + keeping the one that round-trips, rather than by restating the EU rule here. + """ + for hours in (1, 2): + guess = datetime.fromisoformat(f"{day}T00:00:00").replace( + tzinfo=timezone(timedelta(hours=hours))).astimezone(UTC) + if brussels(guess).isoformat() == f"{day}T00:00:00+0{hours}:00": + return guess + raise SystemExit(f"no Brussels midnight for {day!r} - brussels() disagrees " + f"with itself, which is a bug in price.py, not here.") + + +def _months(start: datetime, end: datetime): + """[start, end) in month-sized chunks, so a bad chunk names its own window.""" + a = start + while a < end: + b = min(end, (a.replace(day=1) + timedelta(days=32)).replace(day=1)) + yield a, b + a = b + + +def fetch(start: datetime, end: datetime): + """Raw {unix_second: EUR/MWh} over [start, end), deduplicated. + + ⚠️ A `null` price is DROPPED, never coerced. The API returns null for an + interval it holds no result for, and `or 0.0` is the version of this line + that ships a year of free electricity. + """ + seen, licences, nulls = {}, Counter(), 0 + for a, b in _months(start, end): + # ⚠️ THE API'S `end` IS AN INCLUSIVE LOCAL DAY, AND THE WINDOW'S IS AN + # EXCLUSIVE INSTANT. Ask for the day containing the LAST hour of the + # chunk, derived from the instant rather than by subtracting a calendar + # day from the bound: `b - 1 day` drops the final local day whenever the + # window ends at local midnight, which is exactly how this window ends. + # The first run lost 2026-08-31 that way, silently - 8736 points instead + # of 8760 - and the points-plus-gaps accounting in report() is what + # noticed. A day nobody asked for is not a day with no prices. + first = brussels(a).date().isoformat() + last = brussels(b - timedelta(hours=1)).date().isoformat() + url = f"{API}?bzn={BZN}&start={first}&end={last}" + d = _get(url) + lic = str(d.get("license_info", "")) + licences[lic] += 1 + if LICENCE_MUST_CONTAIN not in lic: + raise SystemExit( + f"REFUSING TO WRITE. {url} came back under licence {lic!r}, " + f"which does not say {LICENCE_MUST_CONTAIN!r}. The BE zone was " + f"redistributable when this card ran; if that has changed, the " + f"right output is this script and a checksum, not the data.") + unit = str(d.get("unit", "")) + if "MWh" not in unit: + raise SystemExit( + f"REFUSING TO WRITE. {url} reports unit {unit!r}, not EUR/MWh. " + f"A silent unit change is a factor of 1000 on every price.") + for t, p in zip(d["unix_seconds"], d["price"]): + if p is None: + nulls += 1 + continue + if start.timestamp() <= t < end.timestamp(): + seen[int(t)] = float(p) + print(f" {a.date()} .. {b.date()} {len(d['price']):5d} intervals", + file=sys.stderr) + time.sleep(PACE_S) + return seen, licences, nulls + + +def to_hourly(raw: dict): + """Hourly means keyed by UTC hour. Returns (hours, gaps, shape_counts). + + An hour is emitted only when every interval the source used for it arrived: + 1 of 1 where the source was hourly, 4 of 4 where it was quarter-hourly. + Anything else is a gap and is named as one. + """ + buckets = defaultdict(dict) + for t, p in raw.items(): + buckets[t - (t % 3600)][t % 3600] = p + + hours, gaps, shapes = {}, [], Counter() + for h in sorted(buckets): + got = buckets[h] + if set(got) == {0}: + shapes["hourly"] += 1 + hours[h] = got[0] + elif set(got) == {0, 900, 1800, 2700}: + shapes["quarter_hourly_mean"] += 1 + hours[h] = sum(got.values()) / 4.0 + else: + gaps.append({ + "hour_utc": datetime.fromtimestamp(h, UTC).isoformat(), + "intervals_present": sorted(got), + "why": "incomplete hour - dropped rather than averaged over " + "what arrived; a partial read is not an observation", + }) + return hours, gaps, shapes + + +def canonical(hours: dict) -> list: + """9.3 points. THREE FIELDS, rendered at the Brussels offset for the instant.""" + return [{"start": brussels(datetime.fromtimestamp(h, UTC)).isoformat(), + "eur_per_kwh": round(hours[h] / 1000.0, 6) + 0.0, + "provisional": False} + for h in sorted(hours)] + + +def expected_hours(start: datetime, end: datetime) -> int: + """Whole hours in the window. Derived, rather than 8760 typed in.""" + return int((end - start).total_seconds() // 3600) + + +def per_local_day(points) -> Counter: + """Points per BRUSSELS calendar day - the count that exposes a DST bug.""" + n = Counter() + for p in points: + n[p["start"][:10]] += 1 + return n + + +def digest(points) -> str: + """A checksum over the POINTS, so reformatting the envelope does not move it.""" + h = hashlib.sha256() + for p in points: + h.update(f"{p['start']}|{p['eur_per_kwh']:.6f}|{int(p['provisional'])}\n" + .encode()) + return h.hexdigest() + + +def load(path: str) -> dict: + op = gzip.open if path.endswith(".gz") else open + with op(path, "rt", encoding="utf-8") as f: + return json.load(f) + + +def report(doc, *, start=None, end=None) -> int: + """Re-derive every claim the file makes about itself. Returns failures.""" + pts = doc["prices"] + prov = doc["provenance"] + bad = 0 + + def ck(name, cond): + nonlocal bad + print(f" {'ok ' if cond else 'FAIL'} {name}") + if not cond: + bad += 1 + + ck(f"the checksum over the {len(pts)} points matches the recorded one " + f"({prov['sha256_of_points'][:16]}...)", + digest(pts) == prov["sha256_of_points"]) + ck("every point has exactly the three canonical fields and nothing else", + all(set(p) == {"start", "eur_per_kwh", "provisional"} for p in pts)) + ck("every start carries a UTC offset, and it is +01:00 or +02:00 - a naive " + "timestamp here is a wall clock plus an assumption", + bool(pts) and all(p["start"][-6:] in ("+01:00", "+02:00") for p in pts)) + ck("the series is strictly increasing in time, so no instant is duplicated", + all(datetime.fromisoformat(a["start"]) < datetime.fromisoformat(b["start"]) + for a, b in zip(pts, pts[1:]))) + ck("consecutive points are exactly one hour apart AS INSTANTS, so the two " + "02:00s of the October day are two hours rather than one", + all((datetime.fromisoformat(b["start"]) + - datetime.fromisoformat(a["start"])) == timedelta(hours=1) + for a, b in zip(pts, pts[1:]))) + + days = per_local_day(pts) + odd = {d: n for d, n in days.items() if n != 24} + ck(f"exactly two Brussels days are not 24 hours long, and they are the " + f"transitions: {sorted(odd.items())}", + sorted(odd.values()) == [23, 25] and len(odd) == 2) + spring = [d for d, n in odd.items() if n == 23] + autumn = [d for d, n in odd.items() if n == 25] + ck(f"the 23-hour day {spring} is in March and the 25-hour day {autumn} is " + f"in October, which is the direction the EU rule actually runs", + len(spring) == 1 and len(autumn) == 1 + and spring[0][5:7] == "03" and autumn[0][5:7] == "10") + if autumn: + twice = [p["start"] for p in pts + if p["start"].startswith(autumn[0] + "T02")] + ck(f"...and 02:00 on {autumn[0]} occurs TWICE at two different offsets " + f"{twice} - exactly the case a 24-slot local-hour array collapses", + len(twice) == 2 and twice[0][-6:] == "+02:00" + and twice[1][-6:] == "+01:00") + ck(f"...and the two carry DIFFERENT prices, so the 25th hour is a real " + f"observation and not the same one written down twice", + len({p["eur_per_kwh"] for p in pts + if p["start"].startswith(autumn[0] + "T02")}) == 2) + if spring: + ck(f"...and 02:00 on {spring[0]} does not occur at all, because that " + f"wall clock reading never happened in Belgium", + not any(p["start"].startswith(spring[0] + "T02") for p in pts)) + + if start and end: + want = expected_hours(start, end) + ck(f"{len(pts)} points for a window of {want} whole hours, and the " + f"{len(prov['gaps'])} recorded gaps account for the difference " + f"exactly", len(pts) + len(prov["gaps"]) == want) + + # ⚠️ A ZERO IS NOT AUTOMATICALLY A DEFECT HERE, AND SAYING IT WAS WOULD BE + # THE WRONG LESSON. The Belgian market really does clear at 0.00 EUR/MWh in + # solar-glut hours; this window contains such hours. What must be impossible + # is a zero that arrived by COERCION - a dropped read turned into a free + # hour. That is excluded structurally rather than by outlawing the value: + # nulls are dropped, incomplete hours become gaps, and the accounting above + # shows points + gaps covering every hour of the window, so every emitted + # point stands for intervals the source actually published. + zeros = [p["start"] for p in pts if p["eur_per_kwh"] == 0.0] + ck(f"the {len(zeros)} hours priced at exactly zero match the count recorded " + f"at build time, so no zero appeared between the fetch and the file", + len(zeros) == prov["exact_zero_hours"]) + ck("...and none of them is a coerced read: every emitted hour is backed by " + "published intervals, which is what the points-plus-gaps accounting " + "above establishes", + len(prov["gaps"]) == 0 or all("intervals_present" in g + for g in prov["gaps"])) + ck("the figures are declared RAW WHOLESALE, and the all-in assumption is " + "recorded as an assumption rather than applied", + prov["all_in"] is False + and "ASSUMPTION" in prov["all_in_assumption"]["status"]) + return bad + + +def main() -> int: + ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.splitlines()[0]) + ap.add_argument("--start", default="2025-09-01") + ap.add_argument("--end", default="2026-09-01", + help="exclusive; both bounds are BRUSSELS-local midnights") + ap.add_argument("--out", default=None) + ap.add_argument("--verify", default=None, + help="re-derive the claims of an existing file; no network") + a = ap.parse_args() + + if a.verify: + doc = load(a.verify) + print(f"verifying {a.verify}") + s = datetime.fromisoformat(doc["provenance"]["window_utc"]["start"]) + e = datetime.fromisoformat(doc["provenance"]["window_utc"]["end"]) + bad = report(doc, start=s, end=e) + print("OK" if not bad else f"{bad} FAILED") + return 1 if bad else 0 + + start = local_midnight_utc(a.start) + end = local_midnight_utc(a.end) + out = a.out or f"scenarios/epex-be-dayahead-{a.start}_{a.end}.json" + + print(f"fetching {BZN} day-ahead {start.date()} .. {end.date()}", + file=sys.stderr) + raw, licences, nulls = fetch(start, end) + hours, gaps, shapes = to_hourly(raw) + pts = canonical(hours) + + doc = { + "provenance": { + "card": "DATA-02", + "what": "EPEX BE day-ahead auction clearing prices, hourly", + "source": f"{API}?bzn={BZN} (Energy-Charts API, Fraunhofer ISE)", + "upstream": "Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de", + "licence": "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)", + "licence_checked": "before committing anything; the API's OpenAPI " + "document lists BE among the CC BY 4.0 zones and " + "the remaining zones as private/internal use " + "only, so redistribution of THIS zone is " + "permitted with attribution", + "licence_as_returned": sorted(licences), + "attribution": ATTRIBUTION, + "cross_check": "SMARD chart_data 4996/DE over 2026-04-10 matched " + "this feed on all 96 quarter-hours, max abs " + "difference 0.00 EUR/MWh (2026-08-31)", + "retrieved_utc": datetime.now(UTC).replace(microsecond=0).isoformat(), + "fetched_by": "scenarios/fetch_epex_be.py", + "window_utc": {"start": start.isoformat(), "end": end.isoformat()}, + "unit": "EUR per kWh (source publishes EUR/MWh; divided by 1000)", + "all_in": False, + "all_in_note": "RAW WHOLESALE. No supplier markup, no network or " + "transmission tariff, no levies, no VAT. 9.3's " + "canonical point is all-in and this is NOT; the " + "consumer applies the assumption below, visibly.", + "all_in_assumption": ALL_IN_ASSUMPTION, + "resolution": { + "note": "EPEX day-ahead moved to a 15-minute market time unit " + "in Oct 2025, part-way through this window.", + "hours_from_hourly_source": shapes["hourly"], + "hours_from_quarter_hourly_mean": shapes["quarter_hourly_mean"], + "aggregation": "unweighted mean of the four quarters; a stated " + "approximation of the hourly product, and a " + "LOWER bound on the spread a 15-minute strategy " + "would have seen", + }, + "timezone": "starts rendered at the Brussels offset by " + "app.price.brussels(); instants carried in UTC, so the " + "transition days come out 23 and 25 points by " + "construction rather than by a special case", + "nulls_dropped": nulls, + "gaps": gaps, + "gaps_note": "hours the source did not publish completely. Dropped, " + "never zero-filled: a missing hour is not a free hour.", + "points": len(pts), + "exact_zero_hours": sum(1 for p in pts if p["eur_per_kwh"] == 0.0), + "negative_hours": sum(1 for p in pts if p["eur_per_kwh"] < 0), + "zero_note": "REAL CLEARINGS AT 0.00 EUR/MWh, not dropped reads. " + "Nulls are dropped and incomplete hours become gaps, " + "so points + gaps == hours in the window and no point " + "stands in for something that failed to arrive.", + "sha256_of_points": digest(pts), + }, + "prices": pts, + } + + with open(out, "w", encoding="utf-8", newline="\n") as f: + json.dump(doc, f, indent=1, ensure_ascii=False) + f.write("\n") + print(f"wrote {out} {len(pts)} points {os.path.getsize(out)} bytes", + file=sys.stderr) + print(f"verifying {out}") + return 1 if report(doc, start=start, end=end) else 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + raise SystemExit(main()) diff --git a/goodwe_controller/test_arbitrage.py b/goodwe_controller/test_arbitrage.py index a6d99c7..1f030cf 100644 --- a/goodwe_controller/test_arbitrage.py +++ b/goodwe_controller/test_arbitrage.py @@ -20,12 +20,15 @@ WHAT THIS FILE IS DEFENDING, in the order the card's acceptance criteria name it exist - static_tariff's required `peak_guard_active` interlock and arbiter.py's clause 2 - both driven end to end, plus the third state (the guard never ran) that neither of them can express on its own. - AC4 NET-POSITIVE ACROSS 12 MONTHS OF REPLAYED PRICES. ⚠️ SEE SECTION 7. THIS - REPOSITORY HOLDS NO PRICE HISTORY AT ALL - `scenarios/` carries two days - of real METER data and nothing else - so the criterion as written cannot - be met, and it is NOT redefined here into something that can be. What - section 7 does instead is stated there in full, and what it cannot say is - stated with it. + AC4 NET-POSITIVE ACROSS 12 MONTHS OF REPLAYED PRICES. ⚠️ MET AS OF DATA-02, + AND SECTIONS 7 AND 7B DO DIFFERENT HALVES OF IT. 7B replays twelve months + of REAL EPEX BE day-ahead prices - `scenarios/epex-be-dayahead-*.json`, + 8760 hours, public data under CC BY 4.0 - through the shipped `decide()`, + and reports the euro figure at the shipped threshold. Section 7 keeps the + SYNTHETIC year, because the real one turns out to be unable to grade §17 + at all: not one of its 365 days has a negative DEAREST hour, so a count + of zero negative-price discharges over it grades nothing. 7B asserts that + degeneracy rather than quietly reporting the zero. THREE RULES THIS FILE HOLDS ITSELF TO, because the reviewer will: @@ -786,34 +789,39 @@ check("...and it is still ARMED when arbitrage is idle and the loop wins, so " print() print("7. AC4 - 12 months of replayed prices, and what could NOT be measured") -# ⚠️ READ THIS BEFORE READING THE NUMBERS BELOW. +# ⚠️ READ THIS BEFORE READING THE NUMBERS BELOW. THIS SECTION IS THE SYNTHETIC +# YEAR, AND IT IS NOT AC4's EVIDENCE ANY MORE - SECTION 7B IS. # -# The acceptance criterion is "net-positive across 12 months of replayed prices -# in simulation". THIS REPOSITORY CONTAINS NO PRICE HISTORY. `scenarios/` holds -# three gzipped captures and all three are P1 METER data - two days of net power -# from the reference house plus one age capture. There is no EPEX archive, no -# supplier export, and no CSV of a past year anywhere in the tree. +# When OPT-04 shipped, this repository held no price history: `scenarios/` +# carried three gzipped P1 METER captures and nothing else. AC4 was therefore +# reported NOT MET rather than redefined into something passable, which is what +# TARIFF-01 and SAFETY-07 had both been upheld for doing. # -# TARIFF-01 and SAFETY-07 both hit an unmeetable criterion and both DECLINED to -# redefine it into one they could pass, and both were upheld for it. So: +# DATA-02 pointed out that the missing ingredient was never a capture. EPEX BE +# day-ahead is PUBLIC DATA; the 30-day meter criterion it was being carried +# beside genuinely needs waiting, and this one only ever needed a fetch. Section +# 7B replays the real year and AC4 is met there. # -# AC4 IS NOT MET, AND IT IS NOT RESTATED. What follows is not a replay of the -# Belgian market; it is a replay of a SYNTHETIC year, and a euro figure from a -# synthetic year grades the generator that produced it, not the strategy. +# ⚠️ SO WHY IS THE SYNTHETIC YEAR STILL HERE? Because the real one cannot grade +# §17, and 7B proves that rather than assuming it. Across all 365 real days, the +# number whose DEAREST hour is priced below zero is ZERO - raw wholesale and +# all-in alike - so "no discharges into a negative hour" over the real year is a +# count of something that never had the chance to happen. Deleting the guard +# would not change it. This section's generator drives a summer midday block +# negative ON PURPOSE, and it is the only thing in this file that puts a +# negative price where the strategy would otherwise sell. # -# What the replay is FOR is the half of AC4 that does not need real prices. Net -# positivity here is not an empirical outcome to be hoped for - it is a property -# of the decision rule, and the replay's job is to demonstrate that the property -# holds on every trade the strategy actually chose, over a year of varied days -# including negative-price ones. Stated as an invariant: +# What this section establishes is the half of AC4 that does not need real +# prices, and it is a property of the decision rule rather than an outcome to be +# hoped for: # # every executed round trip has (sell - buy) >= required >= threshold, # so its benefit net of the threshold is >= 0, on every day, always. # -# That is asserted per trade below, over 365 days. What it does NOT establish - -# and no synthetic series could - is how OFTEN a real Belgian year clears the -# threshold, which is the actual open question and the reason the shipped -# default is a product decision rather than a number this card picked. +# That is asserted per trade below, over 365 varied days including negative ones. +# HOW OFTEN a real Belgian year clears the threshold is the other question, it +# is the one the product owner's open decision turns on, and section 7B is the +# only place in this file that answers it. def synth_day(n): """A synthetic all-in day-ahead day. Deterministic, seeded by day number. @@ -920,12 +928,256 @@ check("the shipped threshold is strictly more selective than the loose one on " "the same year - the parameter does what it says, at whatever value the " "owner sets it to", len(_sh_trades) < len(_trades)) -check("AC4 IS REPORTED AS NOT MET rather than redefined: this file says so in " - "section 7's preamble, and there is no price history in the repository " - "to meet it with", - not any(f.endswith((".csv", ".json.gz")) - and "price" in f.lower() - for f in os.listdir(os.path.join(HERE, "scenarios")))) +check("...and the shipped default was NOT moved to make any of this look " + "better: app/arbitrage.py reads the threshold through price_option() and " + "names no number of its own", + "0.10" not in open(os.path.join(HERE, "app", "arbitrage.py"), + encoding="utf-8").read().split('"""', 2)[2]) + + + + +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # +print() +print("7B. AC4 - twelve months of REAL EPEX BE prices, replayed") + +# THE DATASET, AND WHAT IT IS NOT. +# +# `scenarios/epex-be-dayahead-2025-09-01_2026-09-01.json` - 8760 hourly Belgian +# day-ahead auction prices, 2025-09-01 to 2026-09-01 Brussels-local, fetched by +# `scenarios/fetch_epex_be.py` from Fraunhofer ISE's Energy-Charts API, which +# publishes the BE zone under CC BY 4.0 from Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de. The +# licence was checked BEFORE the data was committed, because the same API serves +# other zones under private-use-only terms; the script refuses to write a file +# whose per-response `license_info` stops saying CC BY 4.0. Provenance, +# attribution and the DST accounting live in the file's own `provenance` block +# and `fetch_epex_be.py --verify` re-derives every claim in it. +# +# ⚠️ THE FIGURES IN THAT FILE ARE RAW WHOLESALE, NOT ALL-IN, AND THIS SECTION IS +# WHERE THE DIFFERENCE IS MADE VISIBLE. §9.3's canonical point is all-in; the +# committed file says `"all_in": false` and carries the markup/tax assumption as +# NUMBERS TO APPLY rather than numbers already applied - TARIFF-02's +# double-counting trap, avoided by never baking the guess in. `_all_in()` below +# applies it in one place where a reader can watch it happen, and both replays +# are run, so exactly how much of the answer rests on the guess is reported +# rather than hidden. + +import json # noqa: E402 +from collections import defaultdict # noqa: E402 + +_DS_PATH = os.path.join(HERE, "scenarios", + "epex-be-dayahead-2025-09-01_2026-09-01.json") +_DS = derived(lambda: json.load(open(_DS_PATH, encoding="utf-8"))) +_ASSUME = _DS["provenance"]["all_in_assumption"] + + +def _all_in(wholesale): + """The stated assumption, applied HERE and nowhere in the committed data. + + all_in = (wholesale + markup + network_and_levies) * (1 + vat), with the + coefficients read from the dataset's own provenance block rather than + retyped - a second copy is a second thing to disagree with the file. + """ + return round((wholesale + _ASSUME["markup_eur_per_kwh"] + + _ASSUME["network_and_levies_eur_per_kwh"]) + * (1.0 + _ASSUME["vat_fraction"]), 6) + + +def _days(price_of): + """The dataset as Brussels calendar days of `PricePoint`s, in order. + + ⚠️ GROUPED BY THE LOCAL DATE IN THE `start` STRING, NOT BY SLICING 24 AT A + TIME. Two of these days are not 24 hours long, which is the whole DST check, + and a fixed stride would put October's 25th hour into the next day and + misalign every day after it. + """ + out = defaultdict(list) + for p in _DS["prices"]: + out[p["start"][:10]].append( + PricePoint(start=datetime.fromisoformat(p["start"]), + eur_per_kwh=price_of(p["eur_per_kwh"]), + provisional=bool(p["provisional"]))) + return [out[k] for k in sorted(out)] + + +_AI_DAYS = derived(lambda: _days(_all_in)) +_RAW_DAYS = derived(lambda: _days(lambda w: w)) + +# ---- the dataset is not degenerate, asserted BEFORE anything is graded ------ +_lens = [len(d) for d in _AI_DAYS] +check(f"the replay has {len(_AI_DAYS)} Brussels days and {sum(_lens)} hourly " + f"points, which is a full year rather than a fortnight repeated", + len(_AI_DAYS) == 365 and sum(_lens) == 8760) +check(f"...and the day lengths are {sorted(set(_lens))}, so BOTH DST days are " + f"in it: an importer that produced 24 everywhere would have lost an hour " + f"in October and invented one in March", + sorted(set(_lens)) == [23, 24, 25] + and _lens.count(23) == 1 and _lens.count(25) == 1) +_dst_day = [d for d in _AI_DAYS if len(d) == 25][0] +check("...and the 25-hour day's two 02:00 points are two different INSTANTS at " + "two different offsets, which is what `at()` has to tell apart", + len({p.start for p in _dst_day}) == 25 + and {p.start.utcoffset() for p in _dst_day} + == {timedelta(hours=1), timedelta(hours=2)}) + +_ai_spreads = sorted(round(max(p.eur_per_kwh for p in d) + - min(p.eur_per_kwh for p in d), 6) + for d in _AI_DAYS) +_raw_spreads = sorted(round(max(p.eur_per_kwh for p in d) + - min(p.eur_per_kwh for p in d), 6) + for d in _RAW_DAYS) +_req_shipped = required_spread(_shipped, NO_WEATHER) +_clears = [s for s in _ai_spreads if s > _req_shipped] +check(f"...and the year's daily spreads STRADDLE the shipped requirement of " + f"{_req_shipped:.4f} EUR/kWh - {len(_clears)} of {len(_ai_spreads)} days " + f"clear it - so the threshold is grading something. A year in which every " + f"day cleared, or none did, would grade nothing at any value", + 0 < len(_clears) < len(_ai_spreads)) +check(f"...and the spreads are not one repeated number: median " + f"{_ai_spreads[len(_ai_spreads) // 2]:.4f}, min {_ai_spreads[0]:.4f}, " + f"max {_ai_spreads[-1]:.4f}", + len(set(_ai_spreads)) > 300 and _ai_spreads[-1] > 4 * _ai_spreads[0]) + +# ---- the assumption's arithmetic, asserted rather than asserted-about ------- +check("the ADDITIVE half of the all-in assumption cancels out of every daily " + "spread, so the trade counts below do not depend on the markup guess at " + "all - only on the VAT multiplier", + all(near(a, r * (1.0 + _ASSUME["vat_fraction"]), 1e-6) + for a, r in zip(_ai_spreads, _raw_spreads))) + +# ---- ⚠️ THE DEGENERACY THAT KEEPS SECTION 7 ALIVE -------------------------- +_raw_neg_h = sum(1 for d in _RAW_DAYS for p in d if p.eur_per_kwh < 0) +_ai_neg_h = sum(1 for d in _AI_DAYS for p in d if p.eur_per_kwh < 0) +_raw_neg_dear = sum(1 for d in _RAW_DAYS if max(p.eur_per_kwh for p in d) < 0) +_ai_neg_dear = sum(1 for d in _AI_DAYS if max(p.eur_per_kwh for p in d) < 0) +check(f"the real year DOES contain negative hours - {_raw_neg_h} of them at " + f"wholesale, {_ai_neg_h} still negative once the assumed markup and " + f"charges are added - so §17 is a live case on this market and not a " + f"hypothetical", _raw_neg_h > 100 and _ai_neg_h > 0) +check(f"BUT NOT ONE OF THE 365 DAYS HAS A NEGATIVE DEAREST HOUR " + f"({_raw_neg_dear} raw, {_ai_neg_dear} all-in), and the guard is on the " + f"hour being SOLD INTO. So a count of zero negative-price discharges over " + f"this year would be a count of something that could not happen, and " + f"section 7's synthetic year stays because it is the only thing here that " + f"puts a negative price where the strategy would sell", + _raw_neg_dear == 0 and _ai_neg_dear == 0) + + +def replay_real(days, threshold, unc, *, soc0=50.0, floor=20.0, ceiling=95.0): + """The shipped `decide()` over the real year. Returns the ledger, nothing else. + + One `TariffPlan` per Brussels day, so "the cheapest hour" means the cheapest + hour of that day - the same shape as section 7's replay, and the same shape + a site with a day-ahead feed actually sees. + """ + soc = soc0 + trades, holdings, bad, neg_sells = [], [], [], 0 + for day in days: + plan = TariffPlan( + PriceRead.series(day, PriceProduct.DAY_AHEAD, "generic_dayahead", + day[0].start), None, "provider") + open_buy = None + for p in day: + d = decide(plan, p.start + timedelta(minutes=30), + peak_guard_active=False, soc=soc, + min_spread_eur_kwh=threshold, uncertainty=unc, + charge_w=MAX_W, discharge_w=MAX_W, + soc_floor_pct=floor, soc_ceiling_pct=ceiling) + if d.action is None: + continue + if d.spread_eur_kwh is None or d.required_eur_kwh is None: + bad.append(p.start) + if d.action == CHARGE: + soc = min(ceiling, soc + STEP_PCT) + open_buy = (p.eur_per_kwh, d) + else: + if p.eur_per_kwh < 0: + neg_sells += 1 + soc = max(floor, soc - STEP_PCT) + if open_buy is not None: + trades.append((open_buy[0], p.eur_per_kwh, d)) + open_buy = None + else: + holdings.append(p.start) + return trades, holdings, bad, neg_sells + + +# ⚠️ AT THE SHIPPED THRESHOLD, UNTOUCHED, AND WIDENED BY FCST-03's NO-WEATHER +# FACTOR - the harsher of the two operating states, so the figure reported is +# the conservative one. +_r_trades, _r_held, _r_bad, _r_neg = derived( + lambda: replay_real(_AI_DAYS, _shipped, NO_WEATHER)) or (None,) * 4 +_r_kwh = MAX_W / 1000.0 +_r_net = round(sum((s - b - _shipped) * _r_kwh for b, s, _ in _r_trades), 2) + +check(f"the real year traded at the SHIPPED threshold: {len(_r_trades)} " + f"completed round trips over 365 days of Belgian day-ahead prices - so " + f"the criterion is being graded on trades that happened, not on an empty " + f"ledger that is net-positive by vacuity", len(_r_trades) > 0) +check("...and every one of them carries the spread and the widened requirement " + "it cleared, so the ledger is auditable rather than a count", _r_bad == []) +check(f"...and it did NOT trade every day ({len(_r_trades)} round trips over " + f"365 days), so the threshold selected rather than waved everything " + f"through", len(_r_trades) < 365) +_r_losses = [(b, s) for b, s, _ in _r_trades if s - b < _shipped] +check(f"AC4: every completed round trip on the REAL year cleared the shipped " + f"{_shipped} EUR/kWh - {len(_r_losses)} exceptions of {len(_r_trades)}", + _r_losses == []) +_r_under = [d.spread_eur_kwh for _b, _s, d in _r_trades + if d.spread_eur_kwh < d.required_eur_kwh] +check(f"...and each cleared its own WIDENED requirement of " + f"{_req_shipped:.4f} EUR/kWh, which is the stricter statement §8.3 asks " + f"for", _r_under == []) +check(f"AC4 IS MET: twelve months of REAL replayed EPEX BE prices are " + f"NET-POSITIVE at the shipped default - {_r_net:+.2f} EUR of benefit net " + f"of the cycle cost over {len(_r_trades)} round trips of {_r_kwh:.1f} kWh " + f"each, accumulated from the trades the strategy actually chose", + _r_net > 0) + +# ---- what the owner's open decision actually turns on ----------------------- +# ⚠️ REPORTED, NOT SETTLED. `cycle_cost_threshold_eur` and FCST-03's 2.5/1.5 are +# the product owner's decision. DATA-02 supplies the input and changes nothing: +# every number below comes out of the same untouched `decide()`. +_r_calm = derived(lambda: replay_real(_AI_DAYS, _shipped, frozenset())[0]) +_r_raw = derived(lambda: replay_real(_RAW_DAYS, _shipped, NO_WEATHER)[0]) +# The threshold at which the MEDIAN day of this year clears its widened +# requirement. Derived from the observed spreads, not chosen. +_median_spread = _ai_spreads[len(_ai_spreads) // 2] +_suggested = round(_median_spread / widen_factor(NO_WEATHER), 4) +_r_sugg, _, _, _ = derived( + lambda: replay_real(_AI_DAYS, _suggested, NO_WEATHER)) or (None,) * 4 +_sugg_net = round(sum((s - b - _suggested) * _r_kwh for b, s, _ in _r_sugg), 2) +print(f" [report] SHIPPED {_shipped} EUR/kWh, widened {widen_factor(NO_WEATHER)}x " + f"to {_req_shipped:.4f}: {len(_r_trades)} round trips, {_r_net:+.2f} EUR " + f"over the year. Unwidened (weather present): {len(_r_calm)} trips. On " + f"RAW wholesale instead of the assumed all-in: {len(_r_raw)} trips, so " + f"the markup/VAT guess moves the count by " + f"{len(_r_trades) - len(_r_raw):+d}.") +print(f" [report] the year's MEDIAN daily all-in spread is " + f"{_median_spread:.4f} EUR/kWh, so the threshold at which a median day " + f"clears its widened requirement is {_suggested} - and at that value the " + f"same year completes {len(_r_sugg)} round trips for {_sugg_net:+.2f} " + f"EUR. THE SHIPPED DEFAULT IS NOT CHANGED BY THIS CARD; both numbers are " + f"reported so the owner can decide between them.") +print(f" [report] and the four-developer finding stands unchanged: a STATIC " + f"day/night spread of ~0.0840 EUR/kWh still does not clear " + f"{_req_shipped:.4f}, so a static-tariff site never trades at the shipped " + f"default. What this year adds is that a DYNAMIC site does - on " + f"{len(_clears)} of its 365 days the spread was there to be taken.") +check("the loose threshold is strictly less selective than the shipped one on " + "the SAME real year - the parameter does what it says at whatever value " + "the owner sets, and neither run tuned anything", + len(_r_sugg) > len(_r_trades) > 0) +check(f"§17 held over the real year too ({_r_neg} discharges into a negative " + f"hour) - but see the degeneracy check above: on this data that zero is " + f"structural, and section 7's synthetic year is what actually grades the " + f"guard", _r_neg == 0) +check("the dataset carries its own provenance, states it is NOT all-in, and " + "keeps the markup/tax figures as an assumption rather than applying " + "them - the TARIFF-02 trap, in data form", + _DS["provenance"]["all_in"] is False + and "ASSUMPTION" in _ASSUME["status"] + and _DS["provenance"]["licence"].startswith("CC BY 4.0")) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- #