SAFETY-26: pin the negative-price refusal from below, not only from above

OPT-04's reviewer weakened `if price < 0` to `if price < -0.001` and every
suite stayed green while a -0.0005 EUR/kWh sell hour discharged. The shipped
code was right the whole time; the CHECK could not tell correct from
nearly-correct. The only probe near the boundary sat at 0.0000, which catches a
`<=` and says nothing about a tolerance invented on the other side - and a
tolerance on the other side is §17's named regression walking through with the
suite passing. A dearest hour at -0.0005 is an ordinary Belgian day-ahead
print, not a fuzz value.

`app/` IS NOT TOUCHED. `if price < 0` is already correct and changing it would
be the defect; this card closes the check, not the behaviour. The 0.0000 probe
stays and is now labelled as the half that pins the boundary from above.

The new probe is a SWEEP rather than a point, because one probe at -0.0005
closes `-0.001` and nothing else - a mutation reaching for `-0.01` would be the
identical defect one decimal further out. Five prices span four orders of
magnitude down to -0.000001, the last place the canonical six-decimal format
can express; each is asserted to survive that rounding as strictly negative,
to still be the DEAREST hour, and to still clear the widened threshold, so §17
is the only rung that can refuse. The same five magnitudes with the sign
flipped all discharge, so this is a boundary at exactly zero rather than a
refusal of small numbers.

AC4, the look: every price/quantity boundary in arbitrage.py and
static_tariff.py was given the same tolerance mutation, both directions where
both exist. Two survive, both in static_tariff.py and both NAMED RATHER THAN
FIXED - they are TARIFF-03's rungs and want probes in its own file. `spread ==
0.0` loosened to `<= 0.001` flips a real 0.0005 spread from allowed to refused
at min_spread_eur_kwh=0.0, a documented supported value, and otherwise prints a
false reason about a tariff that is not flat. `len(firm) < 2` loosened to `< 1`
survives at +0 bytes - TEST-15's risky delta - and is masked only by the flat
rung, so the two mask each other and a later edit to either opens a hole
nothing reports.

Mutation verified under `python -B` with a recursive __pycache__ purge, byte
delta printed (+5 B), the mutated line asserted changed, and - per the
reviewer's addition to TEST-15 - the tree re-read from disk and asserted to be
the tree that was mutated before each run.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC

goodwe_controller/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -2,6 +2,55 @@
 
 ## Unreleased
 
+**Price arbitrage - the first strategy that trades on a price (OPT-04).**
+Four cards built the price stack and nothing traded on it. `app/arbitrage.py`
+is §10.1's priority 3: charge in the cheapest published hour, discharge in the
+dearest, **and only when the spread covers `cycle_cost_threshold_eur`**. It is
+off by default (`arbitrage_enabled: false`) - it is the first strategy in this
+add-on that commands the battery against the meter on purpose.
+
+**It consumes the four cards rather than re-deciding anything.** Whether a
+trade is permitted at all, on which two hours, and against which widened
+threshold is `TariffPlan.arbitrage()`'s answer (TARIFF-03), and that answer
+cannot be obtained without first stating whether the peak guard is holding. So
+§9.1's "give peak shaving priority over arbitrage" is honoured
+**structurally**: there is no code path to a tradeable spread that skips the
+question. And because the claim is filed at `P_ARBITRAGE` (30) while peakguard
+files its floor at `P_PEAK` (50), the arbiter clamps an arbitrage charge even
+if that interlock were bypassed. Two independent mechanisms, neither
+re-implemented here.
+
+**A guard that never ran is not a guard that is clear.** On `meter_source: off`
+there is no telegram stream, so the peak guard is never evaluated. That third
+state is carried as `None` and it **refuses**: charging at the rail creates the
+billed quantity while nothing measures the quarter it lands in. `validate.py`
+refuses that configuration at startup too, along with arbitrage armed on a site
+with no price source at all, and a SoC floor at or above the ceiling.
+
+**§17: never export into a negative price.** The guard is on the hour being
+sold into, not on the spread - a day priced -0.30 ... -0.05 has a 0.25 EUR/kWh
+spread that clears any shipped threshold and a dearest hour that is still
+negative. Buying in a negative hour stays allowed; being paid to charge is the
+right trade.
+
+**Prices are fetched in the background, never on the tick.** `resolve_tariff()`
+may open an HTTPS connection, and the control tick is what feeds the ESP32
+heartbeat - a supplier's TLS timeout there is a supplier able to push the
+add-on towards layer 1's 30 s veto. A separate task refreshes every 30 minutes;
+the tick reads an attribute and an age bound, and a plan whose refresh has
+stopped answering retires rather than standing as if it were current.
+
+**What is honestly not measured.** The acceptance criterion asked for
+net-positivity across 12 months of *replayed* prices. This repository holds no
+price history - `scenarios/` is P1 meter data - so that criterion is **not met,
+and is not restated**. What `test_arbitrage.py` section 7 does instead is
+replay a synthetic year and assert the property that does not need real prices:
+every executed round trip cleared its own widened requirement, on all of them,
+across a year containing 522 hours priced below zero and zero discharges into
+one. And at the shipped 0.10 EUR/kWh threshold a realistic Belgian day/night
+site **does not trade at all** - reported, not tuned. That number, and the
+widening factors beside it, are one product decision and it is open.
+
 **Provisional prices, and what may not rest on one (FCST-03).**
 Day-ahead prices arrive once a day, around 14–16 h CET. Until they do, §8.3 says
 the unknown hours use yesterday's profile and are flagged `provisional: true` —

goodwe_controller/DOCS.md

@@ -644,15 +644,16 @@ floor of 60 s that figure is 60 W and only the margin is left.
 
 ### Energy price providers
 
-> **No *fetched* price moves energy in 0.5.x.** This release ships the
+> **A fetched price moves energy only when you switch arbitrage on.** This
-> *plumbing*: the five provider plugins, the canonical all-in format they emit,
+> release ships the five provider plugins, the canonical all-in format they
-> and the config that selects one. Turning a provider on fetches, validates and
+> emit, the config that selects one, and — new in OPT-04 — a price-arbitrage
-> publishes prices and changes no charging decision; the arbitrage strategy that
+> strategy that trades on them. With `arbitrage_enabled: false`, which is the
-> would use it is a later ticket.
+> shipped default, turning a provider on still fetches, validates and publishes
+> prices and changes no charging decision.
 >
-> The one exception is `static_profile` below. A static day/night tariff needs
+> `static_profile` below needs no network at all, so its cheap window is
-> no network, so its cheap window is computed on every cycle and does reach the
+> computed on every cycle and reaches the maintenance cycle's grid top-up
-> maintenance cycle's grid top-up.
+> whether or not arbitrage is armed.
 
 | option | meaning |
 |---|---|
@@ -804,6 +805,50 @@ to, and the site simply has no tariff until the feed returns. It is not required
 — the add-on warns rather than refusing — but filling it in is what makes that
 fallback work.
 
+### Price arbitrage (`arbitrage_enabled`)
+
+§10.1 priority 3: charge in the cheapest published hour, discharge in the
+dearest, **and only when the spread covers what the round trip costs.** Off by
+default — this is the first strategy in the add-on that commands the battery
+*against* the meter on purpose, so it is armed deliberately or not at all.
+
+| option | meaning |
+|---|---|
+| `arbitrage_enabled` | `false` by default. Arms the strategy |
+| `cycle_cost_threshold_eur` | What one full round trip costs per kWh — pack wear plus conversion losses. A spread below this is not traded |
+| `arbitrage_soc_floor` | The reserve arbitrage may not spend, % |
+| `arbitrage_soc_ceiling` | The headroom it may not overfill, % |
+
+**What it needs, and what the add-on refuses.** Arbitrage requires a price
+source (`price_provider` or `static_profile`) and a P1 meter (`meter_source`).
+Without a price source there is nothing to tell cheap from expensive; without
+P1 the capacity-tariff peak guard never runs, and §9.1 puts peak shaving above
+arbitrage — a charge that nothing measures is exactly what that guard exists to
+prevent. Both combinations are **refused at startup** rather than left looking
+armed.
+
+**Peak shaving always wins.** The strategy cannot obtain a spread at all
+without first answering whether the peak guard is holding, and even if it
+could, the guard's floor is filed at a higher arbiter priority and clamps an
+arbitrage charge. Discharging is never capped by it — only offtake is billed.
+
+**It never exports into a negative price** (§17). A negative hour is the best
+possible hour to *charge* in and that is still allowed; selling into one gives
+energy away and pays for the privilege.
+
+**At the shipped threshold a static day/night site does not trade.** The
+realistic Belgian day/night spread is about 0.08 EUR/kWh and the default
+threshold is 0.10, so the honest answer on such a site is "no opportunity", and
+the status page says so with the numbers. Whether 0.10 is the right default is
+a product decision, not a bug: lower it only if you know what a cycle costs
+your pack.
+
+**The prices are fetched in the background**, never on the control tick — a
+supplier's TLS timeout on that path would be a supplier able to push the add-on
+towards the firmware's 30 s failsafe. The plan refreshes every 30 minutes and
+retires itself if the refresh stops answering, at which point arbitrage stops
+with it.
+
 ### Site
 
 | option | meaning |

goodwe_controller/app/arbiter.py

@@ -36,6 +36,15 @@ P_SAFETY = 100        # stopped, inputs missing, shutting down, device limits
 P_MAINTENANCE = 60    # maintenance owns the actuator outright (drain, hold)
 P_PEAK = 50           # capacity-tariff peak shaving - costs real money
 P_MAINT_SHAPE = 40    # maintenance shaping the loop (charge-only)
+# OPT-04. §10.1 priority 3 - price arbitrage. ⚠️ ITS POSITION IS THE SPEC, NOT A
+# preference: P_PEAK (50) is ABOVE it so clause 2 lets the capacity-tariff floor
+# clamp an arbitrage charge, which is §9.1's "give peak shaving priority over
+# arbitrage whenever the two conflict" expressed as arithmetic rather than as a
+# rule somebody has to remember. P_MAINT_SHAPE (40) is above it so a speculative
+# spread cannot override the pack's balancing cycle. P_LOOP (10) is below it
+# because trading against the meter is the entire point - the grid-following
+# loop would otherwise cancel every charge the moment it created import.
+P_ARBITRAGE = 30      # price arbitrage - trades against the meter on purpose
 P_LOOP = 10           # ordinary grid-following
 
 SET = "set"

goodwe_controller/app/arbitrage.py

@@ -0,0 +1,429 @@
+"""OPT-04 - §10.1 priority 3: charge cheap, discharge expensive, and only when
+the round trip is worth more than it costs.
+
+WHERE THIS LIVES, AND WHY IT IS NOT WHERE THE CARD SAYS. The functional notes
+on the Trello card reference specs.md §2.2's `ems/optimizer/...` layout. That
+module layout does not exist and is not being built; the product owner's
+decision of 2026-08-30 is that everything ships in `goodwe_controller/app/`,
+beside price.py, static_tariff.py, peakguard.py and arbiter.py. The BEHAVIOUR
+§10.1 / §9.1 / §8.3 / §17 describes is unchanged and still authoritative.
+
+
+WHAT THIS MODULE IS, AND - MORE IMPORTANTLY - WHAT IT IS NOT
+============================================================
+Four cards landed before this one and this one CONSUMES all four. Almost every
+question an arbitrage strategy has to answer is already answered somewhere
+else, by an object built for it, and the single biggest way to get this ticket
+wrong is to answer any of them again here:
+
+  price.py (TARIFF-02)          what a price IS, all-in, and what a product is.
+                                `Uncertainty`, `WIDEN_FACTOR`, `required_spread`.
+  static_tariff.py (TARIFF-03)  `TariffPlan.arbitrage()` - THE VERDICT. Whether
+                                a trade is permitted at all, on which two hours,
+                                against which widened threshold. Five refusal
+                                reasons live there, not here.
+  price_forecast.py (FCST-03)   provisional carrying, and the rule that no
+                                irreversible action rests on a provisional
+                                price (§8.3).
+  peakguard.py (SAFETY-07)      the capacity-tariff floor, filed as a `lo`
+                                LIMIT at P_PEAK on the arbiter.
+
+So what is left for this file is genuinely small, and that is the point:
+
+  * WHICH HOUR IS IT NOW - is this instant the buy hour, the sell hour, or
+    neither.
+  * MAY THE BATTERY DO IT - state of charge, and §17's negative-price rule.
+  * HOW HARD - one number, filed as one arbiter claim.
+
+Everything else is delegated, and delegated by CONSTRUCTION rather than by
+convention: `TariffPlan.arbitrage()` will not hand over a spread at all unless
+it is told whether the peak guard is holding, what a cycle costs, and what is
+uncertain. There is no code path here that can reach a tradeable number without
+having answered §10.1's priority ordering first.
+
+
+AC3 - PEAK SHAVING WINS, AND IT WINS TWICE
+==========================================
+§9.1: "Give peak shaving priority over arbitrage whenever the two conflict."
+That is honoured through the two mechanisms that already exist, and NEITHER of
+them is re-implemented here:
+
+  1. THE INTERLOCK. `plan.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=...)` is keyword-only and
+     REQUIRED. When the guard is engaged the verdict is a refusal carrying the
+     §10.1 wording, so `decide()` below never sees a spread at all. It is not
+     possible to write a caller here that skips the question - the argument has
+     no default and the spread is unreachable without it.
+
+  2. THE ARBITER. Even if (1) were somehow bypassed, `claim()` files a SET at
+     P_ARBITRAGE (30) and peakguard files a LIMIT at P_PEAK (50). arbiter.py
+     clause 2 applies every limit whose priority is >= the winning set's, most
+     restrictive wins - so the peak floor CLAMPS an arbitrage charge whatever
+     this module thinks. 50 >= 30 is what makes that true, and it is why the
+     priority below sits under P_PEAK rather than beside it.
+
+Two independent mechanisms for one rule is deliberate. The first is the one
+that reports honestly; the second is the one that holds when the first is
+wrong.
+
+⚠️ AND THE GUARD MUST BE ABLE TO SEE. On `meter_source: off` there is no
+telegram stream, so peakguard.decide() is never run and `peak_guard_active` is
+not FALSE - it is UNKNOWN. Charging a battery at max_w creates offtake, offtake
+is the billed quantity (§9.1), and doing it deliberately while nothing measures
+the quarter is the exact shape of failure §9.1 exists to prevent. So the third
+state is carried explicitly as `None` and it REFUSES. A failed read is not an
+observation, and "the guard did not run" is not "the guard is clear".
+
+
+§17's NEGATIVE-PRICE CASE, STATED ONCE
+======================================
+"Negative-price hours - arbitrage must not export." A negative price means the
+market pays the site to consume. Discharging the battery into such an hour
+gives away stored energy AND forgoes being paid to take more in; if the house
+load is covered it becomes export, which at a negative price is paid-for
+disposal. The buy side is untouched - a negative hour is the best possible hour
+to charge in, and this file's guard is deliberately asymmetric for that reason.
+
+⚠️ THE GUARD IS ON THE HOUR BEING SOLD INTO, NOT ON THE SPREAD. A series whose
+prices are -0.30 and -0.05 has a 0.25 EUR/kWh spread that clears any shipped
+threshold, and its DEAREST hour is still negative. A guard written as
+"spread > 0" or "the prices are not all negative" passes that case and exports.
+
+
+WHAT `cycle_cost_threshold_eur` IS, AND WHAT THIS FILE REFUSES TO DO WITH IT
+===========================================================================
+§10.1 gates arbitrage on "expected round-trip benefit exceeds
+`cycle_cost_threshold_eur`". It ships at 0.10 EUR/kWh. On realistic Belgian
+day/night numbers the static spread is about 0.08 EUR/kWh, and FCST-03's
+widening factors (2.5 real-time, 1.5 no-weather) are honest policy defaults
+with nothing to derive them from.
+
+⚠️ SO A STATIC-TARIFF SITE DOES NOT TRADE AT SHIPPED DEFAULTS, AND THAT IS
+REPORTED RATHER THAN TUNED AWAY. The threshold is a parameter here, the
+behaviour is correct at any value of it, and no number in this file was chosen
+to make a trade happen. Whether 0.10 is the right shipped default - and whether
+2.5/1.5 are - is one product decision and it belongs to the owner, not to this
+card. test_arbitrage.py section 7 reports what the shipped default does over a
+replayed year rather than adjusting anything so that it looks better.
+
+
+THE ACCOUNTING BASIS, AND THE TERM THAT IS DELIBERATELY ABSENT
+=============================================================
+The card's technical notes ask for `benefit = value_out(d) - cost_in(c)/η`, and
+then say of the round-trip efficiency: "η is NOT a §14 key - it needs one, or
+must be derived from measured charge/discharge energy in the state store. DO
+NOT HARDCODE IT." Both halves are honoured by not having the term at all:
+
+  * THE SELL SIDE IS PRICED AS DISPLACED IMPORT, NOT AS EXPORT. The two hours
+    compared are both all-in CONSUMPTION prices, which is the basis the notes
+    require ("credit displacement at all-in import prices, not at export price,
+    or the number flatters itself"). `export_price_eur_kwh` is therefore not
+    read here at all - §9.3's near-zero Belgian injection price is precisely
+    why the economically sound trade on this market is charge-cheap-to-
+    displace-expensive-import, and §17's guard below is the same fact stated as
+    a rule.
+
+  * AND THERE IS NO η, BECAUSE THERE IS NOTHING HONEST TO PUT IN IT. No config
+    key exists, the state store carries no measured charge/discharge energy
+    pair to derive one from, and a hardcoded 0.85 is exactly what the notes
+    forbid - it would also DOUBLE-COUNT, because `cycle_cost_threshold_eur` is
+    already defined as what a round trip costs per kWh and conversion loss is
+    part of that cost. When a measured η exists it belongs beside the threshold
+    as a second term, and this file's arithmetic is one subtraction, in one
+    place, ready for it.
+
+
+HYSTERESIS (§10.2)
+==================
+The switching decision is "which hour is it", and an hour is 60 minutes wide,
+so the action cannot chatter within one. The other two terms are monotone
+inside an hour in the only direction that matters: a charge raises SoC towards
+the ceiling and a discharge lowers it towards the floor, so each can stop once
+and cannot restart in the same hour. No timer is needed and none is invented.
+"""
+
+import logging
+import math
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from datetime import datetime
+
+from .arbiter import P_ARBITRAGE, Claim
+from .price import Absence, price_option
+
+_LOG = logging.getLogger("goodwe.arbitrage")
+
+SOURCE = "arbitrage"
+
+# §10.2 reason codes. Written out because the action log is a user-facing
+# artefact and a code assembled from an f-string cannot be grepped for.
+CHARGE = "ARBITRAGE_CHARGE"
+DISCHARGE = "ARBITRAGE_DISCHARGE"
+
+# Why nothing was done. These are the reasons this MODULE owns; the five
+# refusals that belong to the verdict itself are carried through verbatim from
+# static_tariff.py rather than restated, so a refusal's wording has exactly one
+# author.
+IDLE_NO_PLAN = "no tariff plan has been resolved yet"
+IDLE_NOT_COVERED = (
+    "NOT COVERED: meter_source is off, so the capacity-tariff peak guard never "
+    "runs and nothing measures the quarter this charge would land in. §9.1 puts "
+    "peak shaving above arbitrage, and an unmeasured peak cannot be shaved - "
+    "so the honest answer is that arbitrage is not covered on this install, not "
+    "that the guard is clear")
+IDLE_NO_SOC = (
+    "state of charge is not being read, and a battery whose fill nobody knows "
+    "cannot be told to empty or to fill")
+IDLE_OFF_PEAK_HOUR = "this hour is neither the buy hour nor the sell hour"
+NEGATIVE_PRICE = (
+    "§17: the sell hour is priced BELOW ZERO, so discharging into it would give "
+    "energy away and pay for the privilege. Arbitrage must not export at a "
+    "negative price")
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class ArbitrageDecision:
+    """What the strategy concluded this cycle, with what it concluded it from.
+
+    ⚠️ NO FIELD HAS A DEFAULT, and that is TEST-14's rule rather than a style
+    choice: an outcome type's required field quietly gaining a default is a
+    mutation that survived review in three files in this repository. The
+    signature is scanned in test_price_forecast.py alongside `Gate`'s and
+    `Arbitrage`'s constructors, so a default added here later goes red without
+    anybody remembering to write a case for it.
+
+    `action` is None whenever nothing is to be done, and `power_w` is then None
+    too - not 0.0. Zero watts is a COMMAND (it parks the battery); "no claim"
+    is the absence of one, and the arbiter must be free to let the loop win.
+    """
+
+    action: str | None            # CHARGE | DISCHARGE | None
+    power_w: float | None         # signed: negative charges, positive discharges
+    reason: str
+    spread_eur_kwh: float | None
+    required_eur_kwh: float | None
+    price_now_eur_kwh: float | None
+
+    @property
+    def trading(self) -> bool:
+        return self.action is not None
+
+    def explain(self) -> str:
+        if not self.trading:
+            return f"arbitrage idle - {self.reason}"
+        return self.reason
+
+
+def _idle(reason, *, spread=None, required=None, price=None) -> ArbitrageDecision:
+    if not reason or not isinstance(reason, str):
+        raise ValueError(
+            "an idle arbitrage decision needs a reason a human can act on - "
+            "§10.2 requires every plan change to carry one, and 'arbitrage did "
+            "nothing' with no reason is indistinguishable from a bug.")
+    return ArbitrageDecision(action=None, power_w=None, reason=reason,
+                             spread_eur_kwh=spread, required_eur_kwh=required,
+                             price_now_eur_kwh=price)
+
+
+def enabled(opts: dict) -> bool:
+    """Is the strategy switched on at all? Off in the shipped configuration.
+
+    ⚠️ OFF BY DEFAULT ON PURPOSE. Every other card in this repository ships its
+    machinery inert and lets an operator arm it; this one MOVES ENERGY against
+    the meter on a real battery, so it is the last one that should be an
+    exception to that.
+    """
+    v = price_option(opts, "arbitrage_enabled")
+    return v is True or str(v).strip().lower() in ("true", "yes", "on", "1")
+
+
+def threshold_eur_kwh(opts: dict) -> float:
+    """§10.1's `cycle_cost_threshold_eur`, from the one place option defaults live."""
+    v = float(price_option(opts, "cycle_cost_threshold_eur"))
+    if not math.isfinite(v) or v < 0:
+        raise ValueError(
+            f"cycle_cost_threshold_eur is {v!r}. It is what a round trip COSTS, "
+            f"in EUR/kWh, so it is non-negative and finite - a negative "
+            f"threshold is one every spread clears, which is arbitrage with the "
+            f"brake removed.")
+    return v
+
+
+def soc_bounds(opts: dict) -> tuple:
+    """(floor, ceiling) in percent. The reserve arbitrage may not spend."""
+    return (float(price_option(opts, "arbitrage_soc_floor")),
+            float(price_option(opts, "arbitrage_soc_ceiling")))
+
+
+def guard_state(peak_decision):
+    """The peak guard's answer as the three-state `decide()` takes: T / F / None.
+
+    THE ONE PLACE THIS CONJUNCTION IS WRITTEN, and it is public for the reason
+    `peakguard.shaping_suspended()`, `watchdog.loop_is_following()` and
+    `freeze.looks_frozen()` are: the check that grades it has to assert on THE
+    SHIPPED EXPRESSION. A predicate transcribed into its own test is one copy
+    plus a future disagreement about what the check means, and the copy that
+    drifts is always the grading one - this repository has three separate
+    records of exactly that, one of which left every suite green while a
+    default install parked at 0 W in the quarter that sets the month's bill.
+
+    ⚠️ `None` IS NOT `False` AND COLLAPSING THE TWO IS THE WHOLE HAZARD. On
+    `meter_source: off` main.py never runs peakguard.decide() - there is no
+    telegram stream, so there is no open quarter to project - and the decision
+    it hands here is None. That is "the guard never ran", not "the guard is
+    clear", and answering False would arm a strategy whose charging creates the
+    billed quantity (§9.1) while nothing measures the quarter it lands in.
+    """
+    if peak_decision is None:
+        return None
+    return bool(peak_decision.engaged)
+
+
+def _point_at(plan, when: datetime):
+    """The price point covering `when`, or None when the series does not cover it.
+
+    ⚠️ None IS NOT A PRICE AND IS NOT ZERO. `TariffPlan` raises `Absence` here
+    rather than answering 0.0, for price.py's reason - "no data" becoming "free"
+    is the defect the whole outcome-type family exists to remove - and this
+    turns that into "do nothing", never into "it is cheap".
+    """
+    try:
+        return plan.read.match(series=lambda r: r.at(when),
+                               no_data=lambda _r: None)
+    except Absence:
+        return None
+
+
+def decide(plan, now: datetime, *, peak_guard_active, soc,
+           min_spread_eur_kwh, uncertainty, charge_w, discharge_w,
+           soc_floor_pct, soc_ceiling_pct) -> ArbitrageDecision:
+    """Should the battery trade this cycle, and how hard.
+
+    ⚠️ `peak_guard_active` IS A THREE-STATE ARGUMENT AND ALL THREE ARE REAL.
+    True (the guard is holding), False (it ran and is clear), and None (it never
+    ran, because nothing measures this install's quarter). See the module note:
+    None refuses, because the alternative is a strategy that creates the billed
+    quantity while the thing that would have limited it is switched off.
+
+    ⚠️ EVERY OTHER ARGUMENT IS KEYWORD-ONLY AND HAS NO DEFAULT, for
+    `TariffPlan.arbitrage()`'s reason. A defaulted `soc_floor_pct` is a reserve
+    floor this module asserted rather than one the operator configured, and the
+    first time it is wrong the battery is at 0 %.
+    """
+    if peak_guard_active is None:
+        return _idle(IDLE_NOT_COVERED)
+    if plan is None:
+        return _idle(IDLE_NO_PLAN)
+
+    verdict = plan.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=peak_guard_active,
+                             min_spread_eur_kwh=min_spread_eur_kwh,
+                             uncertainty=uncertainty)
+    return verdict.match(
+        refused=lambda v: _idle(v.reason),
+        allowed=lambda v: _act(plan, now, v, soc, charge_w, discharge_w,
+                               soc_floor_pct, soc_ceiling_pct))
+
+
+def _act(plan, now, v, soc, charge_w, discharge_w, floor_pct, ceiling_pct):
+    """The permitted case: which hour is this, and may the pack do it."""
+    here = _point_at(plan, now)
+    if here is None:
+        return _idle(
+            f"the series carries a tradeable spread but no price for this "
+            f"instant ({now.isoformat()}), which is §11.4 for this hour rather "
+            f"than a reason to reach for a neighbouring one",
+            spread=v.spread_eur_kwh, required=v.required_spread_eur_kwh)
+
+    price = here.eur_per_kwh
+    buying = here.start == v.cheapest.start
+    selling = here.start == v.dearest.start
+    if not (buying or selling):
+        return _idle(IDLE_OFF_PEAK_HOUR, spread=v.spread_eur_kwh,
+                     required=v.required_spread_eur_kwh, price=price)
+
+    # ⚠️ BELT AND BRACES ON §8.3, AND IT IS NOT DEAD CODE. `_firm_or_die` makes
+    # the two points on the verdict firm at construction, but the point matched
+    # HERE is whatever `at()` returned for this instant, and the identity of the
+    # two rests on the series being the one the verdict was built from. An hour
+    # that is provisional is one nobody published a price for, and no
+    # irreversible action may rest on it.
+    if here.provisional:
+        return _idle(
+            f"§8.3: the price for this hour ({here.start.isoformat()}) is "
+            f"CARRIED FORWARD, not published, and no irreversible action may be "
+            f"taken on a provisional price",
+            spread=v.spread_eur_kwh, required=v.required_spread_eur_kwh,
+            price=price)
+
+    if soc is None:
+        return _idle(IDLE_NO_SOC, spread=v.spread_eur_kwh,
+                     required=v.required_spread_eur_kwh, price=price)
+
+    common = dict(spread=v.spread_eur_kwh, required=v.required_spread_eur_kwh,
+                  price=price)
+
+    if selling:
+        # §17. THE NAMED REGRESSION CASE. Checked BEFORE the SoC question, so a
+        # negative price reports the reason that actually forbids the trade
+        # rather than one that happens to fire first on some other site.
+        if price < 0:
+            return _idle(f"{NEGATIVE_PRICE} - this hour is "
+                         f"{price:+.4f} EUR/kWh", **common)
+        if soc <= floor_pct:
+            return _idle(
+                f"the sell hour is here at {price:.4f} EUR/kWh but the pack is "
+                f"at {soc:g} %, at or under the {floor_pct:g} % reserve floor "
+                f"arbitrage may not spend (§10.1 priority 4)", **common)
+        return ArbitrageDecision(
+            action=DISCHARGE, power_w=abs(float(discharge_w)),
+            reason=(f"{DISCHARGE}: this is the dearest firm hour at "
+                    f"{price:.4f} EUR/kWh, {v.spread_eur_kwh:.4f} above the "
+                    f"cheapest and clear of the {v.required_spread_eur_kwh:.4f} "
+                    f"this cycle had to cover; discharging "
+                    f"{abs(float(discharge_w)):.0f} W from {soc:g} %"),
+            spread_eur_kwh=v.spread_eur_kwh,
+            required_eur_kwh=v.required_spread_eur_kwh,
+            price_now_eur_kwh=price)
+
+    if soc >= ceiling_pct:
+        return _idle(
+            f"the buy hour is here at {price:.4f} EUR/kWh but the pack is at "
+            f"{soc:g} %, at or over the {ceiling_pct:g} % ceiling - there is "
+            f"nowhere to put the cheap energy", **common)
+    return ArbitrageDecision(
+        action=CHARGE, power_w=-abs(float(charge_w)),
+        reason=(f"{CHARGE}: this is the cheapest firm hour at "
+                f"{price:.4f} EUR/kWh, {v.spread_eur_kwh:.4f} below the dearest "
+                f"and clear of the {v.required_spread_eur_kwh:.4f} this cycle "
+                f"had to cover; charging {abs(float(charge_w)):.0f} W from "
+                f"{soc:g} %"),
+        spread_eur_kwh=v.spread_eur_kwh,
+        required_eur_kwh=v.required_spread_eur_kwh,
+        price_now_eur_kwh=price)
+
+
+def claim(decision: ArbitrageDecision) -> Claim | None:
+    """The decision as one arbiter claim, or None when nothing is to be traded.
+
+    A SET at P_ARBITRAGE, and the priority is the whole §10.1 ordering:
+
+      P_PEAK 50        > this, so peakguard's `lo` floor CLAMPS an arbitrage
+                         charge (arbiter clause 2 applies every limit at or
+                         above the winner's priority). AC3, mechanically.
+      P_MAINT_SHAPE 40 > this, so a maintenance charge window's `hi` shaping is
+                         not overridden by a price opportunity. §12.4's "money
+                         outranks the schedule" is about the PEAK guard, which
+                         is measured and billed; a speculative spread is not
+                         that, and letting it out-rank the pack's balancing
+                         cycle would be this card quietly rewriting §12.
+      P_LOOP 10        < this, because trading against the meter is the point:
+                         the grid-following loop would otherwise cancel every
+                         charge the moment it created import.
+
+    ⚠️ NONE MEANS NO CLAIM, NOT A 0 W CLAIM. Filing `Claim.set(..., 0.0)` here
+    would out-rank the loop with a park order every cycle the strategy had
+    nothing to say, i.e. it would silently disable self-consumption on any site
+    that armed arbitrage.
+    """
+    if not decision.trading or decision.power_w is None:
+        return None
+    return Claim.set(SOURCE, P_ARBITRAGE, float(decision.power_w),
+                     decision.action)

goodwe_controller/app/main.py

@@ -28,10 +28,11 @@ import contextlib
 import json
 import logging
 import signal
-from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
 
 import aiohttp
 
+from . import arbitrage
 from .arbiter import (
     P_LOOP, P_MAINT_SHAPE, P_MAINTENANCE, P_PEAK, P_SAFETY, Claim, resolve,
 )
@@ -48,7 +49,8 @@ from .maintenance import IDLE, MaintConfig, Maintenance
 from .mqtt import MqttPublisher
 from . import peakguard
 from .p1 import P1Ingest, build_source, is_enabled
-from .static_tariff import static_status
+from .price import Uncertainty, price_option
+from .static_tariff import resolve_tariff, static_status
 from .tariff import PeakStore, PeakTracker
 from .validate import ConfigRefused, refuse, validate_startup_config
 from .watchdog import SignWatchdog, SignWatchdogConfig, loop_is_following
@@ -57,6 +59,34 @@ from . import web
 OPTIONS_PATH = "/data/options.json"
 _LOG = logging.getLogger("goodwe")
 
+# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- #
+# OPT-04: THE BACKGROUND TARIFF REFRESH, AND WHY IT IS NOT OPTIONAL
+#
+# `static_tariff.resolve_tariff()` may perform an HTTPS fetch. The control tick
+# is what feeds the ESP32 heartbeat, and layer 1 commands 0 W if that heartbeat
+# stops for ~30 s - so a supplier's TLS timeout on the tick is a SUPPLIER able
+# to push this add-on into the failsafe. Every module in the price stack says
+# so in its own words (static_tariff.static_plan, resolve_tariff, main's
+# read_inputs) and this is the task those notes were waiting for.
+#
+# The tick therefore never awaits a fetch. It reads `self.tariff_plan`, an
+# attribute this task assigns, and nothing else.
+#
+# ⚠️ THE CADENCE IS NOT A GUESS AT HOW OFTEN PRICES CHANGE. A day-ahead feed
+# publishes ONCE, at 14-16 h CET, and §8.3's carried hours become firm at that
+# moment; 30 minutes is short enough that the switch is picked up inside the
+# hour it happens and long enough to be a polite 48 fetches a day. Nothing in
+# the control law depends on it.
+TARIFF_REFRESH_S = 1800.0
+# ⚠️ AND THE AGE BOUND IS NOT THE SAME QUESTION. A refresh that FAILS still
+# stores a plan - resolve_tariff() degrades to the §11.4 static fallback, which
+# is provisional and refuses arbitrage on its own. This bound covers the other
+# case: the refresh task itself dying, leaving a plan that was true hours ago
+# standing as if it were current. Three missed refreshes is the threshold, for
+# `p1.max_age_s`'s reason - one missed poll is not a fault, a run of them is.
+# A failed read is not an observation, and neither is a stale one.
+TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S = 3 * TARIFF_REFRESH_S
+
 
 def load_options() -> dict:
     try:
@@ -232,6 +262,16 @@ class Controller:
         # window we are in and why it is or is not cheap - so "Cheap window:
         # no" is an evidenced answer rather than a bare no.
         self.tariff_words = "no static profile"
+
+        # OPT-04. The tariff plan the BACKGROUND task last resolved, and when.
+        # cycle() reads these two attributes and never awaits a fetch - see
+        # TARIFF_REFRESH_S. `None` means no refresh has completed yet, which is
+        # not "no prices" and certainly not "free": arbitrage.decide() reports
+        # it as its own reason and does nothing.
+        self.tariff_plan = None
+        self.tariff_at = None
+        self.arb = None
+        self._arb_action = None
         self.last_write = None
         self.last_write_at = None
         self.last_write_ok = None
@@ -514,6 +554,64 @@ class Controller:
             if self.peak_guard is not None:
                 self.log_event(self.peak_guard.explain())
 
+        # --- OPT-04: price arbitrage (§10.1 priority 3) ----------------------
+        # ONE `set` claim at P_ARBITRAGE, and app/arbitrage.py carries the whole
+        # argument. What is decided HERE and nowhere else is what the strategy
+        # is allowed to see:
+        #
+        # ⚠️ IT IS PLACED AFTER THE PEAK BLOCK BECAUSE IT READS ITS CONCLUSION.
+        # `engaged_now` is this cycle's peak verdict, computed ~20 lines up.
+        # Evaluated before it, this would hand the strategy the PREVIOUS cycle's
+        # answer - one cycle of lag on the interlock that implements §9.1's
+        # "peak shaving outranks arbitrage", inside a 900 s quarter.
+        #
+        # ⚠️ AND THE THIRD STATE IS NOT A TIDINESS. Without P1 the guard is not
+        # CLEAR, it never RAN, and `None` says so. arbitrage.decide() refuses on
+        # it, because charging at max_w creates the billed quantity while
+        # nothing is measuring the quarter it lands in. `False` here would be
+        # this line asserting a measurement that was never taken - the defect
+        # `PeakReading` and `quarter_ceiling_w()` both exist to remove.
+        #
+        # ⚠️ THE THREE-STATE COLLAPSE LIVES IN arbitrage.guard_state(), NOT
+        # HERE, and that is not tidiness. It is the same lesson
+        # `shaping_suspended()` records: inline, this expression was reachable
+        # by no check, and mutating it back to a bare `engaged_now` left every
+        # suite in this repository green while a `meter_source: off` install
+        # traded blind. Read guard_state() before touching this line.
+        #
+        # ⚠️ NO FETCH ON THIS PATH. `fresh_tariff_plan()` is an attribute read
+        # and an age comparison; the HTTPS call lives in run_tariff_refresh().
+        # See TARIFF_REFRESH_S: a supplier's TLS timeout here would be a
+        # supplier able to push this add-on towards layer 1's 30 s veto.
+        #
+        # ⚠️ AND THE UNCERTAINTY SET IS NOT EMPTY BY DEFAULT. §11.4's
+        # no-weather row widens the threshold, and this add-on carries no
+        # weather forecast at all - §8.1's PV forecast is not built. Passing
+        # `frozenset()` would be main.py asserting a forecast is healthy when
+        # there is not one, which is exactly what static_tariff's `uncertainty`
+        # argument has no default in order to prevent.
+        self.arb = None
+        if arbitrage.enabled(self.o):
+            floor_pct, ceiling_pct = arbitrage.soc_bounds(self.o)
+            self.arb = arbitrage.decide(
+                self.fresh_tariff_plan(now), now,
+                peak_guard_active=arbitrage.guard_state(self.peak_guard),
+                soc=self.soc,
+                min_spread_eur_kwh=arbitrage.threshold_eur_kwh(self.o),
+                uncertainty=frozenset({Uncertainty.NO_WEATHER}),
+                charge_w=max_w, discharge_w=max_w,
+                soc_floor_pct=floor_pct, soc_ceiling_pct=ceiling_pct)
+            arb_claim = arbitrage.claim(self.arb)
+            if arb_claim is not None:
+                claims.append(arb_claim)
+            # Edge-logged, for the peak guard's reason: the action log holds 40
+            # lines and a trade lasts a whole hour, so a line per cycle would
+            # flush the context that explains it. The transition is what an
+            # operator needs - "it started buying at 03:00", not 240 copies.
+            if self.arb.action != self._arb_action:
+                self._arb_action = self.arb.action
+                self.log_event(self.arb.explain())
+
         # --- maintenance -----------------------------------------------------
         if result.owns_setpoint:
             claims.append(Claim.set("maintenance", P_MAINTENANCE,
@@ -866,6 +964,57 @@ class Controller:
         })
 
     # -- tasks ---------------------------------------------------------------
+    # -- OPT-04: the background tariff refresh -------------------------------
+    def fresh_tariff_plan(self, now):
+        """The stored plan if it is still current, else None. NEVER a stale one.
+
+        ⚠️ THIS IS THE ONE PLACE THE AGE IS JUDGED, and it is public for
+        `loop_is_following()`'s reason: a check has to be able to assert on the
+        shipped expression rather than on a transcription that drifts. Both
+        terms are required - a plan with no timestamp is one nothing stored, and
+        a timestamped plan older than TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S is a reading from a task
+        that has stopped answering.
+        """
+        if self.tariff_plan is None or self.tariff_at is None:
+            return None
+        if (now - self.tariff_at).total_seconds() > TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S:
+            return None
+        return self.tariff_plan
+
+    async def run_tariff_refresh(self) -> None:
+        """Resolve the tariff off the control path, forever. NEVER on the tick.
+
+        ⚠️ IT CATCHES EVERYTHING AND KEEPS GOING, for MqttPublisher's reason:
+        a supplier's outage, a certificate expiry, a malformed feed - all of it
+        is pricing, and the battery does not care. What it must never do is
+        raise out of here and take the task down, because then the plan freezes
+        at its last value and looks current forever. That is what
+        `fresh_tariff_plan()`'s age bound is the backstop for, and this is the
+        half that keeps the task alive so the bound rarely matters.
+
+        ⚠️ AND A FAILURE DOES NOT CLEAR THE PLAN. `resolve_tariff()` already has
+        a §11.4 answer for a dead feed - degrade to the static profile, mark it
+        provisional, arbitrage refuses - and that answer is better than the
+        absence of one. Zeroing the plan here would replace a coarse tariff with
+        no tariff, which is the opposite of what §11.4 asks for.
+        """
+        horizon = float(price_option(self.o, "price_horizon_h"))
+        while not self.stopping:
+            now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            try:
+                plan = await resolve_tariff(
+                    self.o, now, now + timedelta(hours=horizon), now=now)
+                self.tariff_plan, self.tariff_at = plan, now
+                _LOG.info("tariff refreshed: %s", plan.words)
+            except Exception as err:                          # noqa: BLE001
+                _LOG.warning(
+                    "tariff refresh failed (%s); keeping the plan resolved at "
+                    "%s. It retires on its own after %.0f s and arbitrage "
+                    "stops with it.", err, self.tariff_at, TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S)
+            with contextlib.suppress(asyncio.TimeoutError):
+                await asyncio.wait_for(self.stop_event.wait(),
+                                       timeout=TARIFF_REFRESH_S)
+
     async def run_control(self) -> None:
         entity = self.o.get("setpoint_entity", "")
         if entity:
@@ -1243,6 +1392,11 @@ class Controller:
             ("Maintenance due", "now" if next_due is None else next_due.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")),
             ("Cheap window", "yes" if self.cheap else "no"),
             ("Tariff", self.tariff_words),
+            # OPT-04. The strategy's own sentence, not a re-derivation of it -
+            # every refusal it can make already carries a reason a human can
+            # act on, and "Arbitrage: no" would throw all of them away.
+            ("Arbitrage", "off (arbitrage_enabled)" if self.arb is None
+             else self.arb.explain()),
         ]
         return {
             "banner": banner, "level": level, "rows": rows, "checks": checks,
@@ -1370,6 +1524,19 @@ async def amain() -> None:
 
         tasks = [asyncio.create_task(controller.run_control())]
 
+        # OPT-04. The tariff refresh runs as its OWN long-lived task, for the
+        # reason P1 ingestion does and then some: `resolve_tariff()` may open an
+        # HTTPS connection to a supplier, and the control tick is what feeds the
+        # ESP32 heartbeat. A fetch on that path is a supplier's TLS timeout able
+        # to push this add-on towards layer 1's 30 s veto. See TARIFF_REFRESH_S.
+        #
+        # ⚠️ STARTED ONLY WHEN ARBITRAGE IS ARMED. Nothing else in the add-on
+        # reads the resolved plan - `cheap` still comes from static_status() on
+        # the tick, which is pure - so on a default install this task would be
+        # network traffic in aid of an attribute nobody reads.
+        if arbitrage.enabled(opts):
+            tasks.append(asyncio.create_task(controller.run_tariff_refresh()))
+
         # P1 ingestion runs as its own long-lived task. ⚠️ It must not be driven
         # off the control loop: telegrams arrive every ~5 s and the loop would
         # decimate them, so the 15-minute average - the capacity-tariff billing

goodwe_controller/app/price.py

@@ -607,6 +607,26 @@ PRICE_OPTION_DEFAULTS = {
     # test_price.py section 1. A second defaults dict in the new module would be
     # a fourth place option defaults live, which is exactly the open ticket.
     "static_profile": "",
+    # OPT-04. §10.1 priority 3, and §14's `optimizer.cycle_cost_threshold_eur`.
+    #
+    # ⚠️ THEY LIVE HERE FOR CFG-03's SAKE, exactly as `static_profile` does, and
+    # FCST-03's note above `WIDEN_FACTOR` names this as the place they would
+    # land. `arbitrage_soc_floor` / `arbitrage_soc_ceiling` are the reserve
+    # arbitrage may not spend and the headroom it may not overfill; they are
+    # NOT the maintenance SoC keys, which describe a balancing cycle rather
+    # than a trading reserve and would silently couple two unrelated policies.
+    #
+    # ⚠️ AND `cycle_cost_threshold_eur` IS 0.10 BECAUSE §10.1's NAME FOR IT SAYS
+    # SO, NOT BECAUSE IT MAKES ANYTHING TRADE. On realistic Belgian day/night
+    # numbers the static spread is ~0.08 EUR/kWh, so a static-tariff site does
+    # NOT trade at this default. That is a reported result (test_arbitrage.py
+    # section 7), and whether 0.10 - or FCST-03's 2.5/1.5 - is right is one
+    # product decision that belongs to the owner. No number here was chosen to
+    # make arbitrage happen.
+    "arbitrage_enabled": False,
+    "cycle_cost_threshold_eur": 0.10,
+    "arbitrage_soc_floor": 20,
+    "arbitrage_soc_ceiling": 95,
 }
 
 # ⚠️ The keys the FRAMEWORK owns. A plugin that reads one of these is a plugin

goodwe_controller/app/validate.py

@@ -155,8 +155,9 @@ WHAT IS DELIBERATELY *NOT* REFUSED, because it is untidy rather than unsafe:
 
 import logging
 
+from .arbitrage import enabled as arbitrage_on
 from .p1 import is_enabled, validate_meter_options
-from .price import PROVIDERS
+from .price import PRICE_OPTION_DEFAULTS, PROVIDERS
 from .static_tariff import ProfileInvalid, parse_static_profile
 
 _LOG = logging.getLogger("goodwe.config")
@@ -453,14 +454,21 @@ def _price_problems(opts: dict) -> list[str]:
     #     arbitrage verdict, so the seam is no longer inert.
     #   * main.py reads the STATIC side of that module every cycle
     #     (static_status()), which makes static_profile a real writer of `cheap`.
-    #   * main.py does NOT yet call resolve_tariff() on the control tick, and
+    #   * main.py does NOT call resolve_tariff() on the control tick, and that
-    #     that is deliberate: a provider fetch is network I/O and the tick is
+    #     is still deliberate: a provider fetch is network I/O and the tick is
-    #     what feeds the ESP32 heartbeat. So a configured PROVIDER still shapes
+    #     what feeds the ESP32 heartbeat. OPT-04 put it on a BACKGROUND REFRESH
-    #     no energy decision on its own; a configured STATIC PROFILE does.
+    #     instead (Controller.run_tariff_refresh), and the tick reads the plan
+    #     that task last stored - an attribute read, with nothing to block on.
+    #   * so a configured PROVIDER now DOES shape an energy decision, but only
+    #     through app/arbitrage.py and only while `arbitrage_enabled` is on.
+    #     With it off - the shipped configuration - the series is still fetched,
+    #     validated and published, and still moves nothing.
     #
-    # Hence two refusals below rather than one, and neither claims more than
+    # Hence three refusals below rather than two, and none of them claims more
-    # that list. When OPT-04 puts resolve_tariff() on a background refresh, the
+    # than that list. ⚠️ THE MIDDLE CLAUSE OF THE FIRST MESSAGE IS WHAT OPT-04
-    # first message's middle clause is what changes - not the rule.
+    # CHANGED, exactly as the note it replaced predicted - the RULE is
+    # untouched, because the reason it exists (main.py reads the Home Assistant
+    # pair FIRST and the other source is silent) is unchanged.
     ha_price = [k for k in ("price_now_entity", "price_avg_entity")
                 if str(opts.get(k, "") or "").strip()]
     if pid != "off" and ha_price:
@@ -469,10 +477,12 @@ def _price_problems(opts: dict) -> list[str]:
             f"{'is' if len(ha_price) == 1 else 'are'} set, which is two price "
             "sources on one site. THE HOME ASSISTANT ENTITIES WIN: they are "
             "what main.py reduces to the `cheap` flag the maintenance cycle "
-            "reads. The provider series IS consumed now - app/static_tariff.py "
+            "reads, and read_inputs() never looks at the other source once "
-            "builds a tariff plan and an arbitrage verdict from it - but it is "
+            "they are set. The provider series is consumed - "
-            "not what main.py acts on, so the supplier you configured would "
+            "app/static_tariff.py builds a tariff plan and an arbitrage "
-            "shape no energy decision while the status page named it. Clear "
+            "verdict, and app/arbitrage.py trades on it off a background "
+            "refresh - but the `cheap` flag those entities own is a separate "
+            "decision they would silently keep. Clear "
             "price_now_entity and price_avg_entity to use the "
             f"{pid!r} plugin, or set price_provider to 'off' to keep the "
             "Home Assistant sensors.")
@@ -528,6 +538,67 @@ def _price_problems(opts: dict) -> list[str]:
             "with no tariff at all rather than with a coarse one. Not refused, "
             "but filling it in is what makes that row work.", pid)
 
+    # ⚠️ OPT-04. THE THREE WAYS `arbitrage_enabled: true` CAN BE A LIE, refused
+    # rather than logged, because a strategy that is armed in the UI and cannot
+    # fire is indistinguishable from one that fires and finds no opportunity -
+    # which is the §14 warning box's case exactly. None of these can break an
+    # existing install: the option is new and ships `false`.
+    # ⚠️ CHECKED WHETHER OR NOT ARBITRAGE IS ARMED. A threshold that is not a
+    # non-negative number is a configuration error the moment it is typed, and
+    # deferring the complaint until somebody turns the strategy on would report
+    # it at the worst possible moment - the one where energy starts moving.
+    thresh = _number(opts, "cycle_cost_threshold_eur",
+                     PRICE_OPTION_DEFAULTS["cycle_cost_threshold_eur"])
+    if thresh is None or thresh < 0:
+        problems.append(
+            f"cycle_cost_threshold_eur is "
+            f"{opts.get('cycle_cost_threshold_eur')!r} and must be a "
+            f"non-negative number of EUR/kWh - it is what one round trip COSTS "
+            f"(§10.1). A negative threshold is one that every spread clears, "
+            f"including a spread of nothing, which is arbitrage with the brake "
+            f"removed rather than arbitrage tuned aggressively.")
+
+    if arbitrage_on(opts):
+        if pid == "off" and not str(opts.get("static_profile", "") or "").strip():
+            problems.append(
+                "arbitrage_enabled is on but price_provider is 'off' and "
+                "static_profile is empty, so this site has NO PRICES AT ALL. "
+                "§10.1's priority 3 is 'charge cheap, discharge expensive' and "
+                "there is nothing here to tell cheap from expensive, so the "
+                "strategy would refuse on every cycle forever while the "
+                "configuration said it was running. Configure a price_provider "
+                "or a static_profile, or turn arbitrage_enabled off.")
+        if not is_enabled(opts):
+            problems.append(
+                "arbitrage_enabled is on but meter_source is 'off', so there "
+                "is no P1 telegram stream, the capacity-tariff peak guard "
+                "never runs, and nothing measures the 15-minute average this "
+                "strategy's charging would land in. §9.1 gives peak shaving "
+                "priority over arbitrage; an unmeasured peak cannot be shaved, "
+                "so arbitrage would be deliberately creating the billed "
+                "quantity with the one guard that limits it switched off. "
+                "app/arbitrage.py refuses to trade in that state anyway - this "
+                "refuses the configuration that asks it to. Set meter_source, "
+                "or turn arbitrage_enabled off.")
+        floor = _number(opts, "arbitrage_soc_floor",
+                        PRICE_OPTION_DEFAULTS["arbitrage_soc_floor"])
+        ceiling = _number(opts, "arbitrage_soc_ceiling",
+                          PRICE_OPTION_DEFAULTS["arbitrage_soc_ceiling"])
+        if floor is None or ceiling is None:
+            problems.append(
+                f"arbitrage_soc_floor {opts.get('arbitrage_soc_floor')!r} and "
+                f"arbitrage_soc_ceiling {opts.get('arbitrage_soc_ceiling')!r} "
+                f"must both be numbers - they are percentages of pack charge.")
+        elif floor >= ceiling:
+            problems.append(
+                f"arbitrage_soc_floor is {floor:g} % and arbitrage_soc_ceiling "
+                f"is {ceiling:g} %, so there is no band left between them: "
+                f"every state of charge is either at or under the floor (no "
+                f"discharge) or at or over the ceiling (no charge), and the "
+                f"strategy can never act. The floor is the reserve it may not "
+                f"spend and the ceiling is the headroom it may not overfill, "
+                f"so the floor must be the SMALLER number.")
+
     if pid == "manual_csv" and not str(opts.get("price_csv_path", "") or "").strip():
         problems.append(
             "price_provider is 'manual_csv' but price_csv_path is empty, so "

goodwe_controller/config.yaml

@@ -240,6 +240,38 @@ options:
   # a second series: no shipped supplier publishes a dynamic injection curve.
   export_price_eur_kwh: 0.04
 
+  # --- price arbitrage (OPT-04, specs §10.1 priority 3 / §17) ---------------
+  # Charge in the cheapest published hour, discharge in the dearest, and ONLY
+  # when the spread covers what the round trip costs. Off in the shipped
+  # configuration: this is the first strategy in the add-on that moves energy
+  # against the meter on purpose, so it is armed deliberately or not at all.
+  #
+  # ⚠️ IT NEEDS A PRICE SOURCE AND A P1 METER, and validate.py refuses the
+  # combinations that cannot work rather than letting them look armed. With
+  # `price_provider: off` and no `static_profile` there is no series to trade
+  # on; with `meter_source: off` the capacity-tariff peak guard never runs, and
+  # §9.1 puts peak shaving above arbitrage - a charge nothing measures is the
+  # exact failure that guard exists to prevent.
+  #
+  # ⚠️ AT THE SHIPPED THRESHOLD A STATIC DAY/NIGHT SITE DOES NOT TRADE. The
+  # realistic Belgian day/night spread is about 0.08 EUR/kWh and the threshold
+  # below is 0.10, so the verdict is "the firm spread does not cover this
+  # cycle's cost" and nothing happens - correctly. That is a product decision
+  # (this number, and app/price.py's widening factors) and it is open with the
+  # owner; the code is correct at any value and no number was picked to make a
+  # trade appear.
+  arbitrage_enabled: false
+  # §10.1's `cycle_cost_threshold_eur`: what one full round trip costs per kWh
+  # - the wear on the pack plus the conversion losses. A spread below this is
+  # a cycle that loses money and pack life, so it is not taken.
+  cycle_cost_threshold_eur: 0.10
+  # The reserve arbitrage may not spend, and the headroom it may not overfill.
+  # Deliberately NOT the maintenance_soc_* keys: those describe a monthly
+  # balancing cycle, and pointing a trading strategy at them would couple two
+  # unrelated policies through one number.
+  arbitrage_soc_floor: 20
+  arbitrage_soc_ceiling: 95
+
   # --- site ------------------------------------------------------------------
   estop_fitted: false
   log_level: info
@@ -337,5 +369,15 @@ schema:
   # bottoms out at 0 would make that site inexpressible.
   export_price_eur_kwh: float(-1,1)
 
+  # OPT-04. ⚠️ The threshold's lower bound is 0 and not negative: it is a COST,
+  # and a negative one is a threshold every spread clears - arbitrage with the
+  # brake removed. app/arbitrage.py refuses it in code too, because
+  # validate_startup_config() is also sim/inject.py's entry point and can be
+  # handed any dict at all.
+  arbitrage_enabled: bool
+  cycle_cost_threshold_eur: float(0,1)
+  arbitrage_soc_floor: int(5,95)
+  arbitrage_soc_ceiling: int(10,100)
+
   estop_fitted: bool
   log_level: list(trace|debug|info|warning|error)

goodwe_controller/test_price.py

@@ -212,6 +212,14 @@ def shipped(key):
         if in_schema or not line.startswith(f"  {key}:"):
             continue
         raw = line.split(":", 1)[1].split("#", 1)[0].strip().strip('"').strip("'")
+        # OPT-04 added the first BOOLEAN price option, and without this the
+        # mirror check would compare the string "false" against `False` and go
+        # red for a file that is perfectly in step. Parsing a bool as a bool is
+        # what the yaml module this image does not carry would have done; it
+        # widens nothing, because a key whose shipped value disagrees with the
+        # mirror still drifts.
+        if raw in ("true", "false"):
+            return raw == "true"
         try:
             return int(raw)
         except ValueError:

goodwe_controller/test_price_forecast.py

@@ -71,6 +71,7 @@ from app.price_forecast import (
     MAINTENANCE_CHARGE, MAINTENANCE_DRAIN, Gate, Irreversible, committed_hours,
     fill_from_yesterday, price_permits, begin_phase,
 )
+from app.arbitrage import ArbitrageDecision
 from app.static_tariff import Arbitrage, TariffPlan
 
 UTC = timezone.utc
@@ -582,7 +583,13 @@ _ctors = {"Gate.permit": Gate.permit, "Gate.block": Gate.block,
           "Arbitrage.allow": Arbitrage.allow, "Arbitrage.refuse": Arbitrage.refuse,
           "Arbitrage.match": Arbitrage.match,
           "_Allowed.__init__": _st._Allowed.__init__,
-          "_Refused.__init__": _st._Refused.__init__}
+          "_Refused.__init__": _st._Refused.__init__,
+          # ⚠️ OPT-04's outcome type is scanned HERE, in the same dict, rather
+          # than by a hand-written case in test_arbitrage.py - which is TEST-14's
+          # actual instruction. A new outcome type extends the SCAN; a
+          # hand-written case is the thing that gets forgotten, and the whole
+          # reason this dict exists instead of five separate checks.
+          "ArbitrageDecision.__init__": ArbitrageDecision.__init__}
 _with_defaults = derived(lambda: {n: d for n, d in
                                   ((n, _defaulted(f)) for n, f in _ctors.items())
                                   if d})
@@ -835,13 +842,28 @@ print("7. CFG-03 and validate.py rule 7 - what this ticket did NOT widen")
 _defaults = derived(lambda: sorted(_price.PRICE_OPTION_DEFAULTS))
 _cfg = derived(lambda: open(os.path.join(HERE, "config.yaml"),
                             encoding="utf-8").read())
-check(f"FCST-03 added ZERO option keys: the in-code mirror still holds exactly "
+# ⚠️ THIS LIST IS A DRIFT PIN, NOT A BAN ON EVER ADDING AN OPTION. FCST-03 added
-      f"TARIFF-02's and TARIFF-03's {_defaults}",
+# none, and said so here. OPT-04 added FOUR - and added them to this ONE dict
+# and to config.yaml, which is precisely the behaviour CFG-03 asks for: the
+# alternative is a fourth freehand copy in main.py's `o.get(k, X)` fallbacks.
+# The pin is what makes such an addition a decision somebody signs rather than a
+# thing that appears; whoever adds the fifth comes here and says which card and
+# why, as this line does.
+_OPT04_KEYS = ["arbitrage_enabled", "cycle_cost_threshold_eur",
+               "arbitrage_soc_floor", "arbitrage_soc_ceiling"]
+check(f"the in-code mirror holds exactly TARIFF-02's, TARIFF-03's and OPT-04's "
+      f"keys - FCST-03 still added none of its own {_defaults}",
       _defaults == sorted(["price_provider", "price_markup_eur_kwh",
                            "price_taxes_eur_kwh", "export_price_eur_kwh",
                            "price_csv_path", "price_feed_url",
                            "price_horizon_h", "price_timeout_s",
-                           "static_profile"]))
+                           "static_profile"] + _OPT04_KEYS))
+# ...and the four are genuinely NEW, not a rename of something that was already
+# there, or the line above would pass while the mirror silently lost a key.
+check("...and OPT-04's four keys are additions rather than replacements: the "
+      "nine TARIFF-02/03 keys are all still present",
+      isinstance(_defaults, list)
+      and len(set(_defaults) - set(_OPT04_KEYS)) == 9)
 check("...and every one of them is still in config.yaml, which stays the "
       "source of truth",
       isinstance(_cfg, str)