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Author SHA1 Message Date
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5 04292c4a08 DATA-01: thirty days of the real meter, and what AC 3 actually measures
checks / unit (pull_request) Successful in 3m36s
TARIFF-01 and SAFETY-07 both merged with AC 3 - "monthly peak held under
the soft limit in >= 95 % of intervals over a 30-day simulation replay" -
honestly unmet, because two days of capture existed and it was believed
nothing longer could be produced. That belief was a true statement about
the past read as a claim about the future: HA's recorder still held the
whole month, and the reason nobody found out is that the 2026-08-25
export was a one-off script that left no artefact.

So the exporter is committed and runnable now.
scenarios/p1-net-30d-2026-08/ is 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-30, 485,841
samples, 30/30 days read, 0 failed, 4.13 MB gzipped, in the schema the
two committed days already fixed.

VERIFIED AGAINST THE DAYS THAT EXIST. `--verify` re-fetches 2026-08-20
and 2026-08-23 by this exact route and reproduces both committed files
BYTE FOR BYTE after decompression (865,024 B / 15,600 samples and
894,387 B / 16,351 samples). The gzip containers differ by design: this
exporter writes mtime 0 so its output is reproducible, where the one-off
wrote a wall clock.

A FAILED READ IS NOT AN OBSERVATION. A day whose read fails writes no
file, is recorded "read": "FAILED", and the run exits non-zero; the
entity is proved to exist through /api/states before any empty day is
believed, because a typo would otherwise answer 200 [] thirty times and
produce a consistent dataset of nothing. Nothing is interpolated, so the
month's 13 gaps (1291 s, 99.95 % covered) and its 3 `unavailable`
samples stay visible as holes.

SIZE: COMMITTED, DELIBERATELY, AND MEASURED. A git bundle of the whole
history goes from 1.58 MB (release/1.0 @ 86c43eb) to 5.28 MB - +3.70 MB,
x3.3 - and a Home Assistant supervisor clones that on every install.
Downsampling was not on the table: meter_max_age_s is 30 s, so any
coarser resample turns real coverage into modelled meter-gap and moves
the number being measured. "Outside the repo with a pointer" is what
already happened and is why this card exists. The files sit in a
SUBDIRECTORY so the non-recursive globs in test_tariff.py part 9 and
test_peakguard.py part 6 do not pick them up - CI keeps replaying the two
small days instead of growing ~50 s per PR.

AC 3, MEASURED OVER 30 DAYS (tools/replay_ac3.py, which must reproduce
test_peakguard part 6's 189/190 to be believed):

  uncontrolled  2847/2879 = 98.89 % of quarters at or under 3500 W
  guarded       2850/2879 = 98.99 %
  month peak    5029.8 W -> 4107.3 W

Met on the ">= 95 % of intervals" reading - and the uncontrolled figure
is the finding, because a month with no controller at all passes it. Not
met on the other reading of the same sentence: 4107.3 W is still over the
soft limit. The guard pulls 31 of the 32 over-cap quarters down but lands
only 3 under the cap, because CEILING_MONTH_PEAK defends the running
month peak rather than the cap once one is set. Both suites' honesty
notes are corrected to point at the month instead of at its absence.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC
2026-08-31 11:15:02 +02:00
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5 9234016419 Merge release/1.0 (OPT-04) into SAFETY-24, and fix one grader the merge broke
checks / unit (pull_request) Successful in 3m36s
OPT-04 landed after the previous rebase. Conflicts were CHANGELOG.md and one
IMPORT LINE in validate.py; both refusal blocks and both option sets survive
untouched, and DOCS.md, main.py and config.yaml auto-merged.

⚠️ AND THE MERGE BROKE A CHECK THAT NEITHER CARD COULD HAVE SEEN ALONE.
test_peakguard.py graded "the first `.decide(` call in main.py" and asserted
there was exactly one. That was true when SAFETY-24 was written; OPT-04 added
`arbitrage.decide(...)`, so the merged tree had two and the assertion failed.
It failed loudly rather than grading the wrong call - the guard did its job -
but it cannot ship red.

Fixed by selecting the call by QUALIFIED NAME (`peakguard.decide`) instead of
by position, and requiring exactly one of THAT. Other modules may now call
their own decide(); this grader can no longer be moved by one of them. Verified
still discriminating: a decoy `peakguard.decide` added to main.py turns it red
on 7 assertions, and the `maintenance_soc_floor` swap still turns it red on 6.

Also folded in the review's wording finding. An assertion read "a CONTROLLER
whose SoC entity does not answer hands decide() None" while driving no
Controller. The wiring property is stronger than the one claimed, and is now
asserted on the SERVICE CALL: a Controller with no SoC never reaches the guard
at all, because `inputs_ok` is False and cycle() stops at the safety claim
first - so a `float(soc or 100)` defaulting line above the call site cannot
disarm the floor. The original decide()-level check is kept, reworded to say
what it actually grades.

Full suite green on the merged tree: 15 files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC
2026-08-31 07:39:40 +02:00
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5 e709554857 SAFETY-24: an energy floor under the peak guard's forced discharge
checks / unit (pull_request) Successful in 3m29s
SAFETY-07 can command a discharge to hold a billed quarter down, and
nothing below it consulted the state of charge. On the 2026-08-20 replay
it asks for 878 Wh in a day. Relying on the BMS is not absurd - it is a
real floor and it works - but it is the pack's protection rather than the
operator's, and a month of aggressive quarters leaves the battery
repeatedly at that cut-out with no EMS-side record of why. The first
symptom is a pack never available when wanted, which is indistinguishable
from the SoC drift MAINT-01 exists to correct.

decide() now takes soc and soc_floor, both required and neither
defaulted, and discharge_permitted() is the one place the question is
answered. Above the floor nothing changes. At or below it the guard files
a 0 W floor instead of a sized one - one-directional, so charging stays
blocked and no discharge is capped - and reports floor_limited with the
reason it bound. It is not a trip: every stop in 11.2's table still
outranks the claim, and the floor is never negative, so 9.1's asymmetry
survives as a property of the object (0 negative floors over 1296 swept
combinations, SoC included).

The SoC is graded only after `wanted > 0` is established, so it is never
evaluated where it governs nothing. An unreadable SoC is floor-limited,
not a full battery - a full battery is exactly the value that would
disarm the floor, and this project shipped that defaulting once already.

Failing to shave is not silent: one notification per episode
(goodwe_peak_soc_floor), distinct from the saturation alarm because the
two ask for opposite operator actions, plus its own status row and an
action-log line.

Verified by replay. The 2026-08-20 capture is driven against a modelled
pack sized from the day's own measured appetite, so it genuinely
exhausts: without the floor it reaches the BMS cut-out and holds there
for 1227 guard cycles; with it the pack stops at 20.0 % and never touches
the BMS. The energy withheld equals the energy between the two floors to
within one cycle at the rail. The honest half is reported too - the worst
quarter goes 4338 W -> 5030 W, because a floor-limited guard shaves less
on purpose.

Two new options, mirrored once in peakguard.PEAK_OPTION_DEFAULTS
(TARIFF-02's pattern), imported by validate.py and main.py rather than
typed as literals and pinned to config.yaml by a check that reads the
file - so CFG-03 still tracks three places. validate.py rule 8 refuses
peak_soc_floor <= bms_soc_floor at startup, in CFG-01/MAINT-04's manner.
maintenance_soc_floor is deliberately not reused and not renamed: it is a
drain target, not a spend limit, and the rename is recorded as a decision
to revisit if a third floor appears.

Eleven mutations of the shipped source were run against the checks; all
eleven go red and there are no survivors.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC
2026-08-31 00:29:36 +02:00
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5 2d570d84ce SAFETY-07 review: defend the three wiring mutations that survived
The reviewer's finding was correct and the shape of it matters: everything the
first cut graded was in peakguard.py, and grading the module is not the same as
grading the guard. Three one-line changes to main.py's CALL SITE left all twelve
suites green while a default install parked at 0 W in the quarter that sets the
month's bill.

B2 was the serious one. My own comment described that defect - "that entity is
optional and empty on a default install, so until now the suspension could not
fire on the site that needed it" - and nothing could regress it. A comment that
documents a fix nobody can test is the same shape as a corrected comment nobody
tests, which this project has already been caught by once.

WHAT CHANGED

The suppression conjunction moved out of main.py and into
peakguard.shaping_suspended(), for the reason watchdog.loop_is_following() and
freeze.looks_frozen() live where they do: the check that grades a safety
predicate must assert on THE SHIPPED EXPRESSION, not on a transcription that can
drift apart from it in silence. Its docstring carries both terms and why neither
is sufficient alone. main.py's call site now says READ THAT FUNCTION FIRST, and
records that a reviewer mutated it back to its historical broken form with every
suite staying green.

test_peakguard.py part 7 gains a section that EXECUTES the three mutations
rather than describing them. Each one is put in place on the shipped module and
the REAL Controller.cycle() is driven with it, on the dangerous fixture: a
default install (no peak_forecast_entity, so peak_fc is None and peak_at_risk is
False forever) with maintenance in its CHARGE phase, so a P_MAINT_SHAPE `hi <= 0`
limit is live, and the guard genuinely engaged on the measurement. That the
mutations are monkeypatched onto the shipped module is itself load-bearing: if
main.py inlined either expression again the patch would do nothing and these
checks would pass vacuously.

    SHIPPED   suspended=True    loop -> 1498 W, limited by peak    +1497.8 W
    B1        suspended=False   CONTRADICTION between limits           0.0 W
    B2        suspended=False   CONTRADICTION between limits           0.0 W
    B2b (forecast term dropped instead) - caught by its own check

B3 is graded three ways, because the single-cycle form is only INFLATED and the
failure is what happens on the next cycle:

  * the value main.py actually hands decide() is recorded off the real call, with
    the measured battery at 0 W and the command standing at +3000 W;
  * the one-cycle difference is asserted to be exactly the standing command - the
    whole defect in one line, watts that were asked for and never arrived counted
    as if they had;
  * both forms are then run forward against the REAL controller's own projection
    with an inverter that never follows:

        intent-sized floor    4482 5000 5000 5000 ...  SATURATED at cycle 2
        delivered-power floor 1482 1482 1482 1482 ...  stationary

  * and the call site is graded on parsed syntax, so a rename cannot quietly
    reintroduce it: `decide(batt_w=...)` must unparse to `self.batt`.

SAFETY-24 is now named in peakguard.py, in its own section, with the number that
makes it real - 878 Wh of forced discharge on the 2026-08-20 replay - and the
statement that this must not go to a client install before that ticket lands. A
ticket nobody can find from the code is a ticket nobody reads before shipping.

RED AND GREEN

Fifteen mutations run against the shipped modules, each reverted after: the six
new wiring ones (B1, B2, B2b, B3, B3b, and deleting the SAFETY-24 pointer) and
the eight from the first round, re-run to confirm they still bite. All fifteen
turn test_peakguard.py red. Full suite green, test_price.py and TARIFF-03's
included.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC
2026-08-30 23:40:39 +02:00
glenn schrooyenandClaude Opus 5 616b62d3e9 SAFETY-07: cap the loop before it sets the month's billed capacity peak
checks / unit (pull_request) Successful in 3m7s
TARIFF-01 measured the quarter and said the consumer would be this card. It is
one new module, app/peakguard.py, and one new claim.

THE MECHANISM. Every cycle the guard projects the open 900 s block to its
end-of-interval average - from P1 telegrams only, never from the command - and
compares it to a ceiling. Over the ceiling it files ONE arbiter claim: a lower
bound on the setpoint at P_PEAK. That single shape is both behaviours 10.1 asks
for, a hard clamp on charging and pre-emptive discharge, and it cannot cap
discharge or export, because a floor cannot. 9.1's asymmetry becomes a property
of the object instead of a rule to remember.

    excess = 900 x (projected - ceiling) / seconds remaining
    floor  = MEASURED battery power + excess

The 900/remaining gain is 1.0 at the top of the quarter and grows, so the guard
is gentlest where its projection rests on the least evidence. The floor is sized
from delivered battery power, not the standing command: a floor built on intent
re-adds its own unmet ask every cycle and winds to the rail whenever the inverter
fails to follow, and test_peakguard.py part 1 shows the two diverging.

IT TRIPS, AND THE CAPTURES DECIDED THAT. On the healthy reference day it engages
on zero of 95 quarters. The action is level-triggered, unlatched and re-derived
every cycle, so a false engagement costs one cycle of discharge rather than a
parked battery - the cost SAFETY-18 could not bound and this one can. Replayed on
2026-08-20 the billed quarter goes from 5029.8 W, above the inverter's own 5000 W
rating, to 3485 W, under the soft limit and without saturating. Quarters under
the limit across both committed days: 189/190 -> 190/190. Two days is not thirty
and AC 3 remains TARIFF-01's open item.

BLINDNESS IS CHECKED BEFORE THE PROJECTION IS GRADED, and it is a different
action. A fresh averager projects a confident 0 W, which is under every ceiling
there is; a meter gap longer than meter_max_age_s makes the projection read LOW;
a frozen meter reading export projects 0 W at full coverage. All three become a
floor of 0 W - no importing while the billed quantity is unobservable - which is
one-directional and cannot cost pack energy. That is the backstop SAFETY-18 could
not be: its alarm arrives at 300 s of a 900 s quarter and commands nothing. The
frozen term is freeze.looks_frozen() itself, on this cycle's standing command.

THE CEILING IS peak_cap_w, RAISED ONLY BY AN OBSERVED READING. NO_RECORD and
NOT_OBSERVED both leave it at the cap, so an unreadable peak store makes the
guard stricter and never looser. The gate is the reading's STATE, not whether a
number happens to be attached: today a `peak_w is not None` test behaves
identically, and depending on that coincidence is how a future last-known-peak
field would raise the ceiling off a read that failed. headroom_w() is
deliberately not consumed - cap minus peak turns a zero peak into FULL freedom.

TWO DEFECTS FOUND BUILDING IT, both in the interaction rather than the
arithmetic, and both caught by running the thing rather than by reading it:

  * A LIMIT does not out-vote another LIMIT. arbiter.resolve() applies every
    limit at or above the winner's priority and takes the most restrictive, so
    the peak floor (lo >= 0) and the maintenance charge-only shaping (hi <= 0)
    resolved to a CONTRADICTION and 0 W - the battery parked in the exact quarter
    it should shave. Fixed by suppression, not priority: main.py drops the
    maintenance shaping while the guard is engaged, which is what that branch
    already did for the optional peak_forecast_entity - a key empty on a default
    install, so until now the suspension could not fire on the site that needed
    it.
  * Thresholding `excess > 0` released the claim the instant it began working,
    producing seventeen engage/release cycles in one 900 s quarter and leaving
    that quarter 49 W over the limit it had spent fifteen minutes holding. That
    is 10.2's oscillation. The threshold is now the floor itself, which is the
    same arithmetic read as a level rather than as a switch.

PeakTracker.project() no longer reads a private name with a default.
getattr(averager, "_last_net", 0.0) failed quiet AND disarming - a rename credits
0 W held, the projection reads low, the money guard does not engage.
QuarterAverager.held_net_w is a documented public property now, read without a
default, and Projection carries it. TEST-13 item 4.

NO NEW OPTION AND NO FOURTH DEFAULTS SITE. The ceiling is peak_cap_w, the
coverage threshold is meter_max_age_s, the freeze predicate is meter_freeze_s,
and the achievable discharge comes from max_w and the device rating. config.yaml
and validate.py are untouched; 14's capacity_peak_limit_kw stays declined. On
meter_source: off there are no telegrams, so the guard does not run at all and
the status page says NOT COVERED - running it there blinded it permanently and
stopped every legacy install from charging, which is what the first cut did until
test_clamp.py's export case caught it.

test_peakguard.py: eight parts, all figures derived from the shipped config.yaml
and the committed captures. Part 8 runs seven one-line defeats of the guard and
reports which check bites; six do, and the seventh is reported as NOT caught,
because max(cap, peak) makes a zero peak the strictest ceiling there is and there
is nothing left to catch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015VXjA3LWccN1rJsk3okyPC
2026-08-30 23:05:05 +02:00