OPT-15: price-run fixes (quarter edge, charge-end overshoot, refusal probe)

F1: with battery modes on, the peak guard projects the quarter `now` is in
even before its first P1 sample (PeakTracker.project(roll=True)), and only
a measured stop latches the period. The edge tick no longer reads "no
seconds left", so a charge is not stopped and latched at a quarter edge.

F2: after a run edge the loop is held at E until the meter shows the step
(EDGE_HOLD_S, longer while the battery still moves). The replay gained a
lag model (dead time, reading age, P1 debounce, 1 s cycles) that shows
TEST-23's overshoot without the hold.

F3: a charge refuser's SAFETY-73 probe inside a cheap run is a charger
pinned at PROBE_W, the others rest, so the probe actually runs.

Modes off stays byte-identical to 5a4cdc2 (new late-P1 identity scenarios).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

goodwe_controller/tools/opt11p3_identity.py

@@ -19,12 +19,14 @@ import hashlib
 import os
 import sys
 import tempfile
+import time
 from datetime import timedelta
 
 sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
 
 import opt11_identity as rig                               # noqa: E402
 import safety79_identity as s79                            # noqa: E402
+from app.p1 import make_sample, split_signed               # noqa: E402
 from app.price import PricePoint, PriceProduct, PriceRead, brussels  # noqa
 from app.static_tariff import TariffPlan                   # noqa: E402
 
@@ -53,6 +55,21 @@ def _feed(c, t):
     s79._feed(c, t)
 
 
+# OPT-15: the P1 sample of each cycle is built this long after the cycle
+# reads the grid (the HA source's debounce), so the cycle on a quarter
+# boundary still sees the old block, as on TEST-23.
+P1_LAG_S = 0.35
+
+
+def _feed_lag(c, t):
+    c.tariff_plan, c.tariff_at = PLAN, rig.BASE + timedelta(seconds=t)
+    imp, exp = split_signed(c.hass.grid())
+    c.p1.submit(make_sample(
+        "ha_signed", imp, exp, phases=1,
+        ingest_ts=rig.BASE + timedelta(seconds=t - P1_LAG_S),
+        ingest_mono=time.monotonic()))
+
+
 def load(t):
     """Under the limit, over it, a surplus, a big evening load."""
     k = int(t // 600) % 5
@@ -70,10 +87,13 @@ SCENARIOS = {
     # The option present and false: an install that saved it off.
     "n1_off": dict(n=1, extra={"battery_modes_enabled": False}),
     "n2_off": dict(n=2, extra={"battery_modes_enabled": False}),
+    # OPT-15: every quarter boundary with the old block still open.
+    "n1_lag": dict(n=1, lag=True),
+    "n2_lag": dict(n=2, lag=True),
 }
 
 
-def run(n, *, extra=None, dur=DUR):
+def run(n, *, extra=None, dur=DUR, lag=False):
     opts = dict(s79.P1, **ARB, **(extra or {}))
     trade = []
 
@@ -85,7 +105,8 @@ def run(n, *, extra=None, dur=DUR):
     rig.Controller = functools.partial(real, peak_db_path=db)
     try:
         rows, c = rig.run(n, extra=opts, dur=dur, load=load, soc=soc,
-                          cut=lambda u, t: False, before=_feed,
+                          cut=lambda u, t: False,
+                          before=_feed_lag if lag else _feed,
                           on_cycle=on_cycle)
     finally:
         rig.Controller = real

goodwe_controller/tools/opt11p3_replay.py

@@ -18,7 +18,11 @@ earlier (364 days), or the captured quarter-hourly energy-charts bodies for
 2026-09-09/10), the decision code.
 MODELLED: the batteries (a first-order lag, 3 s, 800 W/s ramp, SoC
 integrated, 95 % each way, a reading that jitters by a few watts, and
-optionally a device limit or a refusal to charge), the all-in price (the EPEX file's own stated
+optionally a device limit or a refusal to charge). By default the readings
+are instantaneous and the loop runs every 5 s, which hides what the loop
+does on readings a second or two old; `lag=Lag(...)` (OPT-15) adds a command
+dead time, a meter and battery reading age, the P1 sample's debounce and a
+1 s cycle, as on TEST-23. The all-in price (the EPEX file's own stated
 assumption: (wholesale + 0.02 + 0.10) x 1.06), export paid at the wholesale
 price, tomorrow's prices known from 13:00 local. The absolute money is
 therefore an estimate; the comparison between variants is the point.
@@ -104,10 +108,28 @@ def qh_points():
             if p is not None]
 
 
+class Lag:
+    """OPT-15: how old what the add-on reads is, and how often it acts.
+    `dead_s` a command takes effect that late; `meter_s` / `batt_s` the age
+    of the grid and battery readings; `p1_s` a P1 sample is built that long
+    after the reading (the HA source's debounce), so a cycle just after a
+    quarter boundary can still see the old block; `tick` the cycle period;
+    `tau_s` / `ramp_w_s` the battery's own lag (TEST-23's plant: `dead_s` 1,
+    no lag or ramp)."""
+
+    def __init__(self, dead_s=1.0, meter_s=1.0, batt_s=1.0, p1_s=0.35,
+                 tick=1.0, sub=0.25, tau_s=3.0, ramp_w_s=800.0):
+        self.dead_s, self.meter_s, self.batt_s = dead_s, meter_s, batt_s
+        self.p1_s, self.tick, self.sub = p1_s, tick, sub
+        self.tau_s, self.ramp_w_s = tau_s, ramp_w_s
+
+
 class Plant:
     def __init__(self, soc, refuse_charge=False):
         self.cmd, self.p, self.soc = 0.0, 0.0, float(soc)
         self.refuse_charge = refuse_charge
+        self.queue = []                 # (t, command) not yet in effect
+        self.tau, self.ramp = 3.0, 800.0
 
     def step(self, dt, floor):
         c = self.cmd
@@ -115,8 +137,8 @@ class Plant:
             c = 0.0
         if c < 0 and (self.soc >= 100.0 or self.refuse_charge):
             c = 0.0
-        want = self.p + (c - self.p) * (1 - math.exp(-dt / 3.0))
-        dp = max(-800.0 * dt, min(800.0 * dt, want - self.p))
+        want = self.p + (c - self.p) * (1 - math.exp(-dt / self.tau))
+        dp = max(-self.ramp * dt, min(self.ramp * dt, want - self.p))
         self.p += dp
         e = self.p * dt / 3600.0 / 1000.0            # kWh, + = out
         eff = 1 / 0.95 if e > 0 else 0.95
@@ -125,17 +147,52 @@ class Plant:
 
 
 class Hass:
-    def __init__(self, units, house_at, soc0=None, refuse=(), limits=None):
+    def __init__(self, units, house_at, soc0=None, refuse=(), limits=None,
+                 lag=None):
         self.units = units
         self.lim = limits or {}
         self.plants = {u: Plant((soc0 or {}).get(u, 50.0), u in refuse)
                        for u in units}
         self.house_at = house_at
         self.t = 0.0
+        self.lag = lag
+        self.hist = []                  # (t, grid, {unit: p}), with `lag`
+        for p in self.plants.values():
+            if lag is not None:
+                p.tau, p.ramp = lag.tau_s, lag.ramp_w_s
 
     def grid(self):
         return self.house_at(self.t) - sum(p.p for p in self.plants.values())
 
+    def _past(self, age):
+        """(grid, {unit: p}) as they were `age` seconds ago."""
+        want = self.t - age
+        for t, g, ps in reversed(self.hist):
+            if t <= want + 1e-9:
+                return g, ps
+        return self.hist[0][1:] if self.hist else (self.grid(), {
+            u: p.p for u, p in self.plants.items()})
+
+    def advance(self, dt, floor):
+        """Step the plant `dt` seconds (with `lag`: in `sub` steps, commands
+        applied after `dead_s`, history kept for the lagged readings)."""
+        lag = self.lag
+        if lag is None:
+            for p in self.plants.values():
+                p.step(dt, floor)
+            return
+        end = self.t + dt
+        while self.t < end - 1e-9:
+            h = min(lag.sub, end - self.t)
+            for p in self.plants.values():
+                while p.queue and p.queue[0][0] <= self.t + 1e-9:
+                    p.cmd = p.queue.pop(0)[1]
+                p.step(h, floor)
+            self.t += h
+            self.hist.append((self.t, self.grid(),
+                              {u: p.p for u, p in self.plants.items()}))
+        del self.hist[:-200]
+
     async def limits(self, e):
         lo, hi = self.lim.get(e[-1], (-5000.0, 5000.0))
         return (lo, hi, 1.0)
@@ -145,7 +202,8 @@ class Hass:
 
     async def number(self, e, invert=False):
         if e == "sensor.grid":
-            return self.grid()
+            return self.grid() if self.lag is None else \
+                self._past(self.lag.meter_s)[0]
         u = e[-1]
         if e.startswith("sensor.soc"):
             return round(self.plants[u].soc, 1)
@@ -153,11 +211,17 @@ class Hass:
             # A real reading jitters by a few watts; a dead-flat one is a
             # stale register to the add-on (SAFETY-37), which is not modelled.
             j = (ord(u) * 31 + int(self.t)) % 7 - 3
-            return float(round(self.plants[u].p) + j)
+            p = self.plants[u].p if self.lag is None else \
+                self._past(self.lag.batt_s)[1][u]
+            return float(round(p) + j)
         return None
 
     async def set_number(self, e, v):
-        self.plants[e[-1]].cmd = float(v)
+        p = self.plants[e[-1]]
+        if self.lag is None:
+            p.cmd = float(v)
+        else:
+            p.queue.append((self.t + self.lag.dead_s, float(v)))
         return True
 
 
@@ -239,7 +303,7 @@ def plan_at(now, pts):
 
 def run(variant, house, pts, start, dur, *, check=None, stride=1, n=2,
         soc0=None, refuse=(), extra=None, choice=None, patch=None,
-        limits=None):
+        limits=None, lag=None):
     modes, arb, var_choice = VARIANTS[variant]
     choice = var_choice if choice is None else choice
     units = tuple("ab"[:n])
@@ -272,7 +336,8 @@ def run(variant, house, pts, start, dur, *, check=None, stride=1, n=2,
                  ticks=0, quarters={}, trade_ticks=0)
 
     async def go():
-        hass = Hass(units, house_at, soc0, refuse, limits)
+        hass = Hass(units, house_at, soc0, refuse, limits, lag)
+        tick = TICK if lag is None else lag.tick
         import tempfile
         db = os.path.join(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="p3r-"), "tariff.db")
         c = Controller(dict(options(modes, arb, n), **(extra or {})), hass,
@@ -299,6 +364,8 @@ def run(variant, house, pts, start, dur, *, check=None, stride=1, n=2,
                 now = start + timedelta(seconds=t)
                 hass.t = t
                 clock[0] = now
+                if lag is not None and not hass.hist:
+                    hass.advance(0.0, 10.0)
                 if plan_hour != now.replace(minute=0, second=0,
                                             microsecond=0):
                     plan_hour = now.replace(minute=0, second=0,
@@ -306,17 +373,25 @@ def run(variant, house, pts, start, dur, *, check=None, stride=1, n=2,
                     c.tariff_plan, c.tariff_at = plan_at(now, pts), now
                 else:
                     c.tariff_at = now
-                imp, exp = split_signed(hass.grid())
-                c.p1.submit(make_sample("ha_signed", imp, exp, phases=1,
-                                        ingest_ts=now,
-                                        ingest_mono=time.monotonic()))
+                if lag is None:
+                    imp, exp = split_signed(hass.grid())
+                    c.p1.submit(make_sample("ha_signed", imp, exp, phases=1,
+                                            ingest_ts=now,
+                                            ingest_mono=time.monotonic()))
+                elif t >= lag.p1_s:
+                    # The sample of the reading one debounce ago.
+                    imp, exp = split_signed(hass._past(
+                        lag.meter_s + lag.p1_s)[0])
+                    c.p1.submit(make_sample(
+                        "ha_signed", imp, exp, phases=1,
+                        ingest_ts=now - timedelta(seconds=lag.p1_s),
+                        ingest_mono=time.monotonic()))
                 await c.read_inputs(now_mono=t)
                 await c.cycle()
-                for p in hass.plants.values():
-                    p.step(TICK, 10.0)
+                hass.advance(tick, 10.0)
                 g = hass.grid()
                 pr = price_at(now)
-                dt_h = TICK / 3600.0
+                dt_h = tick / 3600.0
                 if g > 0:
                     stats["imp_kwh"] += g / 1000 * dt_h
                     stats["cost"] += g / 1000 * dt_h * (all_in(pr) if pr
@@ -339,7 +414,7 @@ def run(variant, house, pts, start, dur, *, check=None, stride=1, n=2,
                 stats["ticks"] += 1
                 if check is not None:
                     check(c, hass, now, pr)
-                t += TICK
+                t += tick
         finally:
             m.datetime = real_dt
         return c