OPT-11 P4: solar forecast and day plan

A Home Assistant solar forecast (Forecast.Solar, Solcast or Open-Meteo
shapes) and the add-on's own hourly house use decide, before each cheap
run, whether the sun will fill each battery before the expensive hours.
Leftover solar then buys from the grid only the shortfall; Cheap hours only
skips the part the sun covers; Solar first never grid-charges. No, stale or
failed forecast: P3 option A exactly (12 digests pinned from 5a4cdc2).

Replay (16 recorded days, forecast errors from Elia's day-ahead BE solar):
year-earlier prices P4 19.15 vs P2 19.33 / option A 19.44 / old trade 18.14;
real 2026 prices P4 29.19 vs 32.26 / 32.01 / 31.40 EUR net.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Claude
2026-09-29 19:29:32 +02:00
parent 5a4cdc273e
commit eb10537aee
24 changed files with 1984 additions and 35 deletions
+84 -3
View File
@@ -345,7 +345,10 @@ def mode_runs(c, day0, day1, now, shadow):
else (soc - floor)) / 100.0 * cap)
return kwh
blocks = []
if rp.charge_useful() and pm.mode in GRID_CHARGE_MODES:
# P4: with a day plan, the grid block is the planned shortfall.
need = plan_need(c, inv.name)
if rp.charge_useful() and (need > 0.0 if need is not None
else pm.mode in GRID_CHARGE_MODES):
blocks.append(("grid", rp.cheap))
sell = rp.sell if pm.sell and pm.can_sell else None
for g in rp.give:
@@ -358,6 +361,8 @@ def mode_runs(c, day0, day1, now, shadow):
continue
hrs = (run.end - run.start).total_seconds() / 3600.0
kwh = room(kind, hrs)
if kind == "grid" and need is not None:
kwh = min(kwh, need)
if kwh < MIN_KWH:
continue
price = run.mean_eur_kwh
@@ -382,6 +387,56 @@ def mode_runs(c, day0, day1, now, shadow):
return out, None
def plan_need(c, name):
"""P4: kWh this battery buys from the grid by the day plan, or None when
there is no plan for it (then P3 option A applies)."""
targets = c.plan_targets() if hasattr(c, "plan_targets") else None
if not targets or name not in targets:
return None
inv = next((i for i in c.inverters if i.name == name), None)
if inv is None or inv.soc is None or not inv.capacity_kwh:
return None
return max(0.0, targets[name] - float(inv.soc)) / 100.0 * float(
inv.capacity_kwh)
def plan_state(c):
"""P4: `"plan"` (a day plan is made), `"learning"` (no house profile
yet), `"no_forecast"` (set but missing or stale), or None (not set, or
battery modes off)."""
if not getattr(c, "modes_on", False) or \
getattr(c, "fc_entity", None) is None:
return None
if getattr(c, "solar_fc", None) is None:
return "no_forecast"
hp = getattr(c, "house_profile", None)
if hp is not None and not hp.ready():
return "learning"
return "plan" if getattr(c, "day_plan", None) is not None else None
def solar_block(c, now):
"""P4: the solar forecast line for the Batteries screen and the Simple
settings view: `{state, fc_kwh, count_kwh, updated, line}`."""
st = plan_state(c)
out = {"state": st, "fc_kwh": None, "count_kwh": None, "updated": None,
"line": ""}
if st is None and getattr(c, "solar_fc", None) is None:
return out
fc = getattr(c, "solar_fc", None)
if fc is not None:
trust = float(getattr(c, "solar_trust_pct", 70)) / 100.0
out.update(fc_kwh=round(fc.today.kwh, 1),
count_kwh=round(fc.today.kwh * trust, 1),
updated=hhmm(fc.at))
if st in ("no_forecast", "learning"):
out["line"] = _t("solar." + st)
elif fc is not None:
out["line"] = line_solar(fc.today.kwh, out["count_kwh"],
out["updated"])
return out
def maintenance_runs(c, day0, day1, now, shadow):
"""The monthly battery cycle: under way now, or starting later today.
The cycle starts in the hour `maintenance_start_hour` names, read as the
@@ -655,7 +710,9 @@ def battery_rows(c, shadow, running, held=False):
phase=phase, shadow=shadow, running=running, held=held,
refused=refusing(c, inv), peak=peak,
giving=flow(inv.batt) == "giving", other_refuses=other,
sf_ahead=sf_ahead, role=role, plan=plan, has_at=bool(at))
sf_ahead=sf_ahead, role=role, plan=plan, has_at=bool(at),
day=None if pm is None or pm.mode not in PRICE_MODES
else day_key(c, inv.name))
rows.append({
"name": inv.name,
"level_pct": None if inv.soc is None else float(inv.soc),
@@ -689,10 +746,25 @@ def battery_rows(c, shadow, running, held=False):
return rows
def day_key(c, name):
"""P4: the day plan's word for one Leftover solar or Cheap hours
battery: `sun_fills`, `tops_up`, `no_forecast`, or None."""
st = plan_state(c)
if st == "no_forecast":
mode = c.pack_mode(next(i for i in c.inverters if i.name == name))
return "no_forecast" if mode.mode == LEFTOVER_SOLAR else None
if st != "plan":
return None
need = plan_need(c, name)
if need is None:
return None
return "tops_up" if need >= MIN_KWH else "sun_fills"
def battery_why(*, modes_on, mode, off, reading, phase, shadow, running,
held, refused, peak, sf_ahead, giving=False,
other_refuses=None, role=None, plan=None,
has_at=False) -> str:
has_at=False, day=None) -> str:
"""The key of one battery's "why" line (`home_words.why`), most urgent
first. Pure, so every branch is tested without a controller."""
if not reading:
@@ -717,6 +789,8 @@ def battery_why(*, modes_on, mode, off, reading, phase, shadow, running,
if not modes_on:
return "modes_off"
# OPT-11 P3: the battery's role in the price runs this cycle.
if role == "hold" and day is not None:
return day # P4: what the day plan decided
if role in ROLE_WHY:
if role == "hold" and not has_at:
return "saves_later"
@@ -864,6 +938,7 @@ def _build(c, *, level, checks, now):
modes_on=bool(getattr(c, "modes_on", False)),
running=running, held=held, shadow=shadow)
return {
"solar": solar_block(c, now),
"state": {"kind": kind, "pill": pill(kind),
"ran": ctl.get("text", "") if ctl else "",
"sub": banner_sub(kind)},
@@ -1160,6 +1235,10 @@ def run_house_amount() -> str:
return _t("run.house_amount")
def line_solar(fc_kwh, count_kwh, at) -> str:
return _t("solar.line", kwh=_kwh(fc_kwh), count=_kwh(count_kwh), at=at)
def line_no_trade(key) -> str:
return "" if key == "off" else _t("no_trade." + key)
@@ -1302,6 +1381,8 @@ def _samples() -> list:
off=off, peak=peak)))
out += [("plan", why_words(k, name="Battery A")) for k in words["why"]]
out += [("plan", today_words(k)) for k in words["today"]]
out += [("plan", line_solar(9.2, 6.4, "10:15")),
("plan", _t("solar.no_forecast")), ("plan", _t("solar.learning"))]
out += [("plan", line_no_trade(k)) for k in
("not_covered", "no_prices", "peak", "not_firm", "not_worth",
"no_level")]