`run_tariff_refresh()` promised in its own docstring that "a failure does not clear the plan", and enforced it with `except Exception` - a branch a supplier outage never reaches. `load_prices()` states the reason in its own words: it "RETURNS, NEVER RAISES, for every failure a site can actually have", because a degradation arriving as a traceback into the planning tick would stop the controller regulating over an expired certificate. So a dead feed RETURNS a §11.4 plan, the `try` succeeds, and the assignment below it overwrote the good plan unconditionally. With `static_profile` unset - the shipped default, and the normal state of a dynamic-tariff site - `_degrade()` returns `TariffPlan(no_data, None, "none")`: a complete 48-hour plan replaced by nothing, at the FIRST failed fetch, ~27 minutes after the last good one. `TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S` (5400 s) never governed anything and there was no serve-stale window at all. Fourth card in one family: FCST-04's M4 (`not ok` only), FCST-05's HIGH (`(JSONDecodeError, OSError)` only), FCST-06 (`not self.ok` only), and now `except Exception` only, for a path that never raises. The question is now asked once, after the attempt, from the evidence that exists - FCST-06's answer, one module over. The evidence is `TariffPlan.from_feed` (did this resolution observe the configured feed) and the shipped `fresh_tariff_plan()`, reused rather than transcribed. A degradation replaces a standing observation only once that observation has aged out, so `TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S` is now the serve-stale window it reads like. A §11.4 static fallback does not replace a fresh provider plan either, although it carries real prices: every point `_degrade()` builds is `provisional=True`, so `firm_points()` is empty, `arbitrage()` refuses and `cheap_now()` is False - everything a consumer may act on is already off - while a day-ahead price for a given hour does not change once published. The rule is deliberately not symmetrical: a standing plan that is itself a degradation IS replaced, or an outage would freeze the operator's static profile at the window it was first generated for. `tariff_at` does not move on a kept plan. It is the moment of the fetch that produced the plan standing, `fresh_tariff_plan()` judges the age from it, and an unmoved timestamp is the only thing that tells a kept plan from a freshly fetched one. test_arbitrage.py section 8b drives the whole chain with nothing stubbed but the socket: the transport raises the way aiohttp does, load_prices() returns no_data, _degrade() builds the §11.4 plan, and the shipped run_tariff_refresh() decides. A check that patched resolve_tariff to RAISE would have passed against the defect. Ten mutations, ten reds, no survivors; 29/29 suites green. Out of scope and unchanged: the persisted price store still does not back the plan during an outage (FCST-03), and the status banner and the Arbitrage row's lag are separately carded. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BwRLw7eKYj2byVdwB6kbjU
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# TARIFF-12 — a returned degradation is not a refresh
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Three decisions. The first is what the ticket put up for judgement; the second
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and third are what fall out of it and would otherwise be decided by accident.
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---
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## 0. What was actually wrong, stated once
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`run_tariff_refresh()`'s docstring:
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> ⚠️ **AND A FAILURE DOES NOT CLEAR THE PLAN.** … Zeroing the plan here would
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> replace a coarse tariff with no tariff, which is the opposite of what §11.4
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> asks for.
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The guarantee was real. The condition it was enforced on was not:
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```python
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try:
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plan = await resolve_tariff(...)
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self.tariff_plan, self.tariff_at = plan, now # unconditional
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except Exception as err:
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_LOG.warning("tariff refresh failed (%s); keeping the plan ...")
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```
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`load_prices()` says in its own docstring that it **"RETURNS, NEVER RAISES, for
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every failure a site can actually have"**, because a degradation arriving as a
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traceback into the planning tick would stop the controller regulating over an
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expired certificate. So a supplier outage — the case the docstring names first —
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is a **return**: the `try` succeeds, `_degrade()` hands back a §11.4 plan, and
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the good plan is overwritten. The `except` is reachable only by something
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nobody expected, and nothing in the shipped path produces it.
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This is the fourth card in one family: FCST-04's M4 (`not ok` only), FCST-05's
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HIGH (`(JSONDecodeError, OSError)` only), FCST-06 (`not self.ok` only), and now
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`except Exception` only, for a path that never raises. **A guarantee enforced on
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the condition someone thought of, rather than the condition that occurs.**
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Reproduced before the fix, driving the shipped chain with nothing stubbed but
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the socket — 48 h horizon, `static_profile` empty, one good fetch then a
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`ClientConnectorError` 1800 s later, `TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S` = 5400 s:
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```
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after a good fetch origin='provider' n_points=48 'dynamic_dayahead from generic_dayahead, 48 h'
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after the failed fetch origin='none' n_points=0 'no tariff - generic_dayahead: ClientConnectorError: ...'
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tariff_at moved: True
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```
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and after it:
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```
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after the failed fetch origin='provider' n_points=48 'dynamic_dayahead from generic_dayahead, 48 h'
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tariff_at moved: False
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```
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---
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## 1. The question is asked ONCE, after the attempt, from the evidence that exists
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FCST-06's answer, one module over, and for the same reason: **the enumeration
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of failure conditions cannot be completed.** There is no pre-check that a feed
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will answer which is not itself a guess, and adding one would be a second
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symptom test beside the `except`. So the predicate is an **outcome**, read off
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the object the attempt produced:
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```python
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standing = self.fresh_tariff_plan(now)
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keep = (not plan.from_feed
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and standing is not None and standing.from_feed)
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```
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Two facts, both of which exist by the time the question is asked:
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* **`plan.from_feed`** — did *this* resolution observe the configured provider?
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`TariffPlan.origin` already names the four ways a plan is obtained; this
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collapses them to the one question a caller holding a previous plan has to
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ask. It lives on `TariffPlan` rather than as an `origin == "provider"` at the
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call site for `fresh_tariff_plan()`'s own stated reason — *a check has to be
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able to assert on the shipped expression rather than on a transcription that
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drifts* — and because `origin`'s vocabulary belongs to `static_tariff.py`.
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* **`fresh_tariff_plan(now)`** — is a standing observation still current. It
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already existed, it is already the one place the age is judged, and it is
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**reused, not transcribed**. `test_arbitrage.py` 8b pins that reuse on the
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AST; a copy of the comparison behaves identically until the day the two
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drift, which is a claim about the code's shape, so a shape check is what
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grades it (FCST-06's precedent for the one source check among driven ones).
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### What was NOT done
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* **Not `except Exception` widened, or a second `if` beside it.** That is the
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defect's own shape — a place where the rule is spelt twice, so a fifth cause
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needs a fifth branch. The `except` stays, relabelled *"not the outage path"*,
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keeps the plan on the same terms, and is now honestly the
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something-nobody-expected branch.
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* **Not the persisted price store as a cache.** Out of scope by the product
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owner's call, and it is the right call: FCST-03 exists precisely to stop
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stale prices being acted on, and "recent" is not "current". Keeping the last
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**fetched** plan until it ages out is a different promise from serving the
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store, and that one needs its own ticket.
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* **Not a `no_data`-only guard.** `not plan.has_prices` is the tempting
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spelling and it is wrong — see decision 2. It leaves the §11.4 fallback free
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to replace a fresh observation, and it is a 1-byte edit from the shipped
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line, which is why it is in the mutation table rather than in a comment.
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---
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## 2. A §11.4 static fallback does NOT replace a fresh provider plan
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The ticket asked this directly, because the fallback is *not* nothing: it is
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the operator's own configured profile, with real prices, for the requested
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window. The answer is still no, and the reason is not that it is worse data —
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it is that **nothing may be acted on it, and it is no more current.**
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* Every point `_degrade()` builds carries `provisional=True`. So
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`firm_points()` is empty, `arbitrage()` finds fewer than two firm hours and
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refuses, and `cheap_now()` is False. Both of the two things `TariffPlan`
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exposes for a consumer to act on are already off.
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* A day-ahead price for a given hour **does not change once published**. A plan
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fetched 30 minutes ago is exactly as true about 19:00 as one fetched now; at
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most `TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S` of its horizon has elapsed. The observation is not
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stale in any sense the fallback is fresher than.
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So replacing the observation with the fallback trades a plan with firm hours
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for a plan with none, and buys no currency with it. The fallback takes over
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when the observation **retires** — which is exactly the row §11.4 describes,
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arrived at when there is no longer an observation to prefer.
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### And the rule is deliberately NOT symmetrical
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`standing.from_feed` is a term in its own right. A standing plan that is itself
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a degradation **is** replaced by the next degradation, and its timestamp moves.
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Without that term:
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* an outage on a static-profile site would freeze the operator's profile at the
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window it was first generated for, and the guard would be *"never overwrite"*
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wearing a bound's name;
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* and on a `price_provider: off` install — the shipped default — the plan would
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flip between kept and re-derived every `TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S`, for no behavioural
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gain, changing which reason the status page prints on a two-hour cycle.
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Each of the three terms is the only false one in some check in 8b, which is
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MUTATION.md habit 17's test for whether a suite can tell an `AND` from an `OR`.
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---
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## 3. `tariff_at` does not move on a kept plan
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The docstring's other half is that a plan must not *"freeze at its last value
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and look current forever"*. `tariff_at` is what makes that work: it is the
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moment of the fetch that produced the plan standing, and `fresh_tariff_plan()`
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judges the age from it.
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Re-stamping it on a kept plan would be this task asserting the feed answered
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when it did not. The plan would be re-certified as current at every refresh, an
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outage of any length would never retire it, and `TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S` would be
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**exactly as dead as it was before this card** — reachable only by the refresh
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task itself dying. Leaving it alone is what makes the bound govern: the plan is
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served for the age bound after its own fetch, and no longer.
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It is also the whole of **"distinguishable from a freshly-fetched one"**. A
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kept plan and a fetched plan are the same object shape; what separates them is
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that one's timestamp advanced and the other's did not, and every consumer that
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asks how old the plan is already reads that number. The kept case additionally
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logs at WARNING, naming the degradation's own reason, the fetch it is keeping,
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its age, and the deadline it retires at.
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⚠️ **What this does not give the operator, and why it is not here.** The status
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page has no row for "the last refresh failed" — the banner/level not moving
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when the plan is lost is separately carded, and the ticket rules it out of
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scope. This card's change makes that surface *more* truthful, not less: during
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the first `TARIFF_MAX_AGE_S` of an outage there is now a real plan behind the
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Arbitrage row instead of a no-plan refusal, so the row says something true for
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longer. The no-plan state is entered later by up to 5400 s; it is not removed,
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and the 30-minute lag reported on that row is untouched by anything here.
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---
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## What this does not change
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* **Nothing on the 30 s tick.** `cycle()` still reads two attributes and awaits
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no fetch; the AST pin in `test_arbitrage.py` section 8 is unchanged and green.
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* **Nothing about the prices themselves.** No series is invented, extended,
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re-stamped or carried. The only question this card answers is *which of two
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plans the controller holds*.
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* **A `price_provider: off` install is bit-for-bit unaffected.** Its standing
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plan is never `origin == "provider"`, so `keep` is false on every refresh it
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will ever run, and the assignment happens exactly as it did before.
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