SAFETY-48: what the lead cap actually does to a frozen integrator, and what the peak figure depends on

Four review findings, none of them in executable code. The control law, the
tests and the instruments' arithmetic are untouched; every number below was
re-measured against the committed 16-day capture before it was written down.

R1 - app/control.py carried a justification the decision record and MUTATION.md
habit 22 had already retracted, and it was false about the code it sits in. It
said an unconditional placement "would also pull the integrator toward a
command the SATURATION freeze is pinning", priced at 118 of 256 250 ticks. The
118 was measured against a different pair; on the pair the sentence names the
two forms are bit-identical - 0 of 256 246 ticks, re-measured. And the narrow
form that shipped DOES move a saturation-frozen integrator: it runs before the
freeze block and is not gated on `frozen`. Of 79 160 frozen ticks the cap
changes `i_w` on 1095, and on 679 of those it moves it further out on the side
it was already on - putting back magnitude the freeze had just let fall, which
the freeze's own rule forbids. Worst case 2424 W, at prev_w -3400 W, grid
+4697 W, actual -4144 W, sat_count 2 -> 3: the freeze leaves the integrator at
-176 W and the cap drags it to -2600 W. It never overrides a same-cycle refusal
(the freeze clipped on 75 512 ticks, the slew bound on none of them), and that
is stated too. It is also where SAFETY-13's settle values went: gating the cap
on `not frozen` puts test_control.py part 5 back at -1190 W exactly, while part
4(b) does not come back - that one moved for the winding reason.

R3 - the record read its own sensitivity table backwards. `fit_plant()` picks
lag 7.5 s on battery-power RMS, which separates it from 2.5 s by 0.3 %, while
the tool's own printed fidelity measure (export against the recorded 29.43 kWh)
prefers 2.5 s by the whole 35 % gap. Swept properly: at every lag <= 5.0 s
release/1.0's worst quarter is ALREADY 3434 W and this card changes it by
exactly zero. The 3739 -> 3434 W headline exists at one plant. New section 3a
carries the table; the export reduction now leads every summary and the peak is
presented as lag-dependent. The form-A rejection is strengthened rather than
weakened: form A is worse on the billed quarter at every lag where release/1.0
produces a peak at all, and at every top-N cut of the quarters.

R2 - DOCS.md stated modelled watts to the owner as measurement. It now leads
with the export reduction, says the figures are simulated, and says plainly
that no capacity-tariff improvement is promised.

R4 - tools/slew_sim.py --slew narrated "the OVER-ABSORPTION does not move, and
at the slowest slews it is slightly WORSE" while printing a monotonically
falling column. That sentence is TRUE on release/1.0 (reproduced:
958/1107/1133/1058/987/1029/1150/1143/1081) and false under this branch's law
(777/734/663/563/553/507/435/358/321), so SAFETY-39 is not retracted: its
record gets a forward reference, and the script now reads SLEW_LEAD_STEPS out
of the law it imported and narrates from the column it just printed. Both
branches of that narration were driven.

R5 - three counts in the L table were decoration and are re-driven in the CI
image on a `cp -a`, purged, `:ro`, one file at a time: L5 is 5+5 with the
function names exchanged and 5+4 with the branch bodies exchanged (two
mutations wearing one name, now listed separately), L6 is 6+3. The separable-
state count is grid-dependent and three sweeps disagree, so all three are
quoted with their grids and the load-bearing claim is WHERE they separate.

R7 - "a large import answered too weakly" is not what the aggregate shows. Form
A cuts import by 5.45 kWh and export by 5.18 kWh, and paired per tick delivers
8.56 kWh less offtake energy on the ticks release/1.0 was importing. The harm
is a tail redistribution inside quarters that already net to offtake. The
conclusion stands; the sentence is narrowed to it.

Verified: the full suite in the CI image, purged tree, `:ro` mount, one file at
a time, exactly the command in .gitea/workflows/checks.yml - 30/30, exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BwRLw7eKYj2byVdwB6kbjU

goodwe_controller/DOCS.md

@@ -385,10 +385,28 @@ saturation freeze is holding the command (`Loop reason` says
 Before this bound existed, the same 6 kW export drove the lead to 4600 W and the
 integrator to its 5000 W rail, and the command then needed twelve cycles — about
 a minute at this install's meter rate — to walk back down once the disturbance
-cleared. Measured over 16 days of the reference install's own recorded
-disturbances, bounding it cut avoidable export by 5.5 kWh, cut wasted battery
-throughput from 4.67 to 3.19 kWh, and **lowered** the worst quarter-hour average
-offtake — the billed one — from 3739 W to 3434 W.
+cleared.
+
+⚠️ **What the bound buys — and how much of it is a model rather than a meter
+reading.** Sixteen days of the reference install's own recorded disturbances
+were replayed through both laws (`tools/replay_recorded_loop.py`). The result
+that survives every plant and tuning tried is the **export reduction: about an
+eighth of the modelled export** — 5.5 kWh of 39.6 at the plant lag the replay
+fits, 3.8 kWh of 28.9 at the shorter lag that best reproduces what this install
+actually exported — with wasted battery throughput falling alongside it, 4.67 to
+3.19 kWh at the fitted plant. ⚠️ **Those are simulated watt-hours.** The
+replay's fitted inverter carries a ~375 W RMS residual and prints `+35 %
+PESSIMISTIC` beside its own export figure on every run; the *direction* is what
+it establishes, not the absolute kWh.
+
+⚠️ **And it does NOT promise you a lower capacity-tariff peak.** The worst
+quarter-hour average offtake — the billed quantity — improves from 3739 W to
+3434 W **only at the longest plant lag the replay fits**. At every shorter lag,
+including the one that best reproduces the recorded export, release/1.0 already
+sits at 3434 W and this bound changes it by exactly zero. The plant lag is not
+identified by the recording, so treat the peak as unchanged and the export as
+the reason this exists. `DECISIONS/SAFETY-48-bounding-the-integrator-lead.md`
+§3a has the table.
 
 ⚠️ **Two roster names that differ only in punctuation or case** — `inverter-b`
 and `Inverter B` — are two names to the validator and one id once slugged. The