TARIFF-16: the injection leg stops being one number
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`price.py` modelled what a site is PAID for export as ONE scalar. The market
publishes a line, and the cards say so in their own words: Eneco Zon & Wind
Dynamisch `0,1 x BELPEX-H - 1,188` c EUR/kWh - "het injectietarief is dynamisch
en kan per uur wijzigen", identical on the January and the September 2026 cards;
ENGIE Dynamic `(B x eSpot_15) - A`; Aspiravi `0,07 x Belpex - 2`.
`price_export_formula` carries that line with its OWN coefficients.

⚠️ THIS IS NOT A WRONG-TRADE FIX, AND SAYING SO IS PART OF SHIPPING IT.
`arbitrage.py` does not read `export_price_eur_kwh` at all - its own comment
says so, citing §9.3's near-zero Belgian injection price as the reason the
economically sound trade on this market is charge-cheap-to-displace-expensive-
IMPORT. Both hours it compares are all-in CONSUMPTION prices. No trade this
add-on takes today is decided by an injection price and nothing here changes
one. What it changes is what an operator is told, and what a future
export-aware strategy rests on: OPT-06 and any export logic would otherwise
inherit a scalar that cannot represent the market, and the 6% VAT asymmetry
would be invisible in the arithmetic. test_price.py 17h parses every module
under app/ and goes red the day something calls an injection reader, so that
sentence is graded rather than attested.

FOUR PROPERTIES A SCALAR CANNOT HOLD. Its own factor (Eneco 0,102 consumption
against 0,100 injection; Aspiravi 0,07 against ~0,10 - not the consumption B
with a sign flip). A negative offset, which `price_markup_eur_kwh: float(0,1)`
cannot express at all. VAT-exemption - "injectietarieven zijn vrijgesteld van
btw" - against 6% on consumption, representable only because `vat_pct` is PER
SPEC. And a price that goes below zero with no floor, under 11,88 EUR/MWh of
BELPEX-H, which is the middle of a sunny day.

⚠️ A NEGATIVE INJECTION PRICE IS ACCEPTED, AND THAT NEEDED A DIFFERENT BAND
RATHER THAN A LOWER FLOOR. `implausible_all_in()` floors the consumption leg at
+0.02 EUR/kWh of energy; applied to injection that refuses the real market in
the hours it matters most. Measured rather than argued: 17c puts ONE spec
through BOTH bands and prints that the consumption band refuses -0.03008
EUR/kWh while the injection band accepts it. The floor was not decoration - it
is what catches a card read a hundred times too small, the one unit error the
card self-check cannot see because it cancels out of a comparison between the
two sides - so the bound moves OFF the price and ONTO the coefficients, where
it is index-free and sign-free: a pass-through band (Eneco's injection leg is
1.00x, Aspiravi's 0.70x; the band is 0.10-10x) and an offset magnitude bound
(0.20 EUR/kWh against published 0.01188 and 0.02). Two rungs that can both
answer a hundredfold error, so each is graded on its REASON, each gets a
stimulus the other cannot reach with the precondition asserted as its own
check, and they are mutated TOGETHER (TEST-16).

⚠️ THE CARD SELF-CHECK APPLIES WHERE THERE IS A CARD, AND WHERE THERE IS NOT
THAT IS STATED RATHER THAN WORKED AROUND. `price_formula` can require a `card`
block because a Belgian card prints the consumption formula, the reference
index AND the resulting price. Eneco's INJECTION formula is printed with no
price beside it. Requiring a block would make the published line inexpressible;
inventing the estimate would grade the coefficients against arithmetic done
with the same coefficients. So the block is OPTIONAL on this leg and unchanged
on the other, the self-check runs at the same tolerance wherever a printed
estimate exists, and validate.py says at startup - "its coefficients are
UNGRADED" - when it does not, naming the two bounds that ran instead. This is
TARIFF-15 demonstrating two tariffs end to end rather than three, one card
later. 17e also MEASURES the size of that gap: a factor of 0.070 where the
contract says 0.100 - 30% of every export payment - passes both bounds, because
0.70x is a pass-through somebody really publishes.

ONE PARSER, NOT TWO. `parse_export_formula()` is `parse_price_formula()` with
its OPTION NAME as an argument - TARIFF-17's move on `parse_static_profile()`,
exactly - and everything that differs between the legs is a string in one
`_LEGS` table. A second copy would be a second unit table, a second NaN rule, a
second unknown-key rule and a second `to_resolution()`, diverging first on the
23- and 25-hour days. test_price.py 17b pins it two ways: all 32 grammar names
are defined in exactly ONE module under app/, with the scope COMPUTED by
parsing every file rather than listed; and twelve refusal sentences for the new
option are DERIVED from the old option's own sentence rather than transcribed.
The four sentences that deliberately differ are named, with what differs, and
asserted to differ.

NOTHING CHANGES FOR A SITE THAT DOES NOT SET IT. The option ships "";
`export_price_eur_kwh()`'s body is byte-identical, pinned on the AST rather
than on the source text; `export_price_at()` falls through to it for every
index value. 17f compares seven option dicts x five index values against the
pre-TARIFF-16 expression with `==`.

`price_export_formula` joins FRAMEWORK_KEYS, BANNED_IN_PLUGIN_CODE is derived
from that set, and `code_leaks()` refuses a plugin that names it with nothing
else edited.

ALSO CORRECTED HERE: config.yaml's comment beside `export_price_eur_kwh` still
read "no shipped supplier publishes a dynamic injection curve". TARIFF-07
struck that claim from app/price.py and DOCS.md and did not reach config.yaml,
where it has been shipping since.

20 mutations, every one red on a named check, ledger in test_price.py below
section 17 - including a ZERO-byte one (the two legs transposed in the
VAT-asymmetry banner: no decision moves, only the sentence) and a ONE-byte one
(`card_required=True` on the injection leg). Three run over all 29 files and
red on test_price.py alone. 29/29 green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BwRLw7eKYj2byVdwB6kbjU
This commit is contained in:
glenn schrooyen
2026-09-13 18:41:06 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 4dcd9b0fc6
commit 995da777ce
11 changed files with 1884 additions and 116 deletions
+34 -2
View File
@@ -316,10 +316,33 @@ options:
price_taxes_eur_kwh: 0.11736
# §9.3: injection is priced SEPARATELY, and in Belgium it is often near zero -
# which by itself strongly favours self-consumption over export. A scalar, not
# a second series: no shipped supplier publishes a dynamic injection curve.
# which by itself strongly favours self-consumption over export. This is the
# FLAT injection price, for a site paid the same for every exported kWh.
#
# ⚠️ THE REASON THIS COMMENT USED TO GIVE - "no shipped supplier publishes a
# dynamic injection curve" - WAS FALSE, and TARIFF-07 struck the same
# sentence from app/price.py and DOCS.md without reaching this file. Eneco
# publishes `0,1 x BELPEX-H - 1,188` c EUR/kWh on the same card as its
# consumption formula, ENGIE publishes `(B x eSpot_15) - A`, and Aspiravi
# `0,07 x Belpex - 2`. A site on one of those sets price_export_formula
# below; this scalar stays the fixed-product default and is what every site
# uses today.
export_price_eur_kwh: 0.04
# TARIFF-16. The INJECTION leg as a formula, in price_formula's own grammar
# and with its OWN coefficients: Eneco uses 0,102 on consumption and 0,100 on
# injection, and injection is VAT-EXEMPT where consumption is at 6%, so
# `vat_pct` here is normally 0. A negative `offset` is expected - it is what
# the published lines carry - and the resulting price legitimately goes below
# zero in the midday hours a PV household exports in.
#
# ⚠️ NO STRATEGY IN THIS ADD-ON READS IT. arbitrage.py prices the sell side
# as displaced IMPORT and compares two all-in CONSUMPTION prices; it does not
# read the injection price at all. This option is what the operator is shown
# and the shape a future export-aware strategy would rest on. Empty by
# default, which leaves every existing site on the scalar above.
price_export_formula: ""
# §14's `tariffs.static_profile`, and "" is its `null`. §9.2: "a large share
# of the installed base is on [a static profile]" - this is what makes those
# sites first-class rather than "price_provider: off, good luck".
@@ -901,6 +924,15 @@ schema:
# bottoms out at 0 would make that site inexpressible.
export_price_eur_kwh: float(-1,1)
# TARIFF-16. A JSON string in `price_formula`'s grammar, parsed by
# `custom_formula.parse_export_formula()` - the SAME parser with its option
# name as an argument, so a second unit table and a second card rule do not
# exist to diverge. The `card` block is OPTIONAL on this leg and required on
# the other: Eneco prints its injection formula with no price beside it, so
# on that card there is nothing to grade against, and the add-on says at
# startup that the leg is ungraded rather than inventing an estimate.
price_export_formula: str?
# A JSON string rather than a nested schema, deliberately: it is ONE option
# key (§14 has one), it survives config.yaml's flat options block, and
# parse_static_profile() accepts an already-parsed dict too, so a future