TARIFF-24 round 3: a run planned with a forecast keeps its gap to its end

Losing the solar forecast mid-run used to widen the gap at once and stop a
grid charge (and a sensor that went unavailable for a minute stopped and
restarted it). A run under way when the forecast is lost now keeps the gap it
was planned with until it ends (Controller.weather_held(), recorded by
_wx_track() each cycle a forecast is read); the wider gap applies from the next
run. The plan key holds the hold state so the plan rebuilds when it ends. Home's
mirror (homeview.trade_verdict) asks the same weather_held(now).

Tests: test_tariff24_weather.py part 4 (going: the charge continues to the run's
end, the next run is not_worth; flap of one and two reads: no stop, no restart;
Home agrees) and a test_modes_p4.py scenario that runs a forecast day at a gap
between 1x and 1.5x the cycle cost. DECISIONS wording follows.

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

goodwe_controller/DECISIONS/TARIFF-24-modes-need-the-tariff-task.md

@@ -54,8 +54,10 @@ No forecast, or a stale or unusable one: 1.5 x, as before. It is read in three
 places that must agree: the run plan (`_price_runs()`), the charge gate
 (`_mode_roles()`) and Home's mirror (`homeview.trade_verdict()`). The forecast
 is read at most every 60 s and the plan key already holds "forecast or not", so
-the gap follows in the cycle the read changes, both ways. A run already under
-way is kept to its end (`priceruns.keep_started()`), as for any change.
+the gap follows in the cycle the read changes, both ways, with one exception:
+a run planned with a forecast that is under way keeps that gap to its end
+(`Controller.weather_held()`), so a sensor that goes unavailable does not stop
+or restart a charge. The wider gap applies from the next run.
 
 **Not changed.** Modes off (the site trade) keeps the doubt always. The
 shipped cost 0.10 still needs a gap of 0.10 even with a forecast: a 0.08

goodwe_controller/app/arbitrage.py

@@ -267,15 +267,17 @@ def threshold_eur_kwh(opts: dict) -> float:
     return v
 
 
-def weather_uncertainty(modes_on: bool, solar_fc) -> frozenset:
+def weather_uncertainty(modes_on: bool, solar_fc, held: bool = False) -> frozenset:
     """The "no weather" doubt (x1.5) a trade must clear. TARIFF-24.
 
     Battery modes read a solar forecast; with one read (`solar_fc` not None) the
-    doubt is gone. Everything else, and the modes without a forecast, keep it.
-    One rule for the run plan, the charge gate and Home's mirror of it. See
+    doubt is gone, and `held` (a run planned with a forecast is under way, see
+    `Controller.weather_held()`) keeps it gone until that run ends. Everything
+    else, and the modes without a forecast, keep it. One rule for the run plan,
+    the charge gate and Home's mirror. See
     DECISIONS/TARIFF-24-modes-need-the-tariff-task.md.
     """
-    if modes_on and solar_fc is not None:
+    if modes_on and (solar_fc is not None or held):
         return frozenset()
     return frozenset({Uncertainty.NO_WEATHER})
 

goodwe_controller/app/homeview.py

@@ -279,7 +279,9 @@ def trade_verdict(c, plan, now):
                              min_spread_eur_kwh=arbitrage.threshold_eur_kwh(c.o),
                              uncertainty=arbitrage.weather_uncertainty(
                                  bool(getattr(c, "modes_on", False)),
-                                 getattr(c, "solar_fc", None)),
+                                 getattr(c, "solar_fc", None),
+                                 bool(getattr(c, "weather_held",
+                                              lambda _n: False)(now))),
                              now=now)
     return verdict.match(
         allowed=lambda v: (v, "allowed"),

goodwe_controller/app/main.py

@@ -960,6 +960,9 @@ class Controller:
         # and whether last tick filed a mode trade (a run edge reseeds).
         self.mode_runs = None
         self._runs_key = None
+        # TARIFF-24: the end of the run that was under way while a forecast
+        # was read; until then losing the forecast does not widen the gap.
+        self._wx_free_to = None
         self.mode_tick = None
         self._run_done = {}
         self._mode_trade_was = False
@@ -2226,6 +2229,28 @@ class Controller:
                 probing=probing))
         return out
 
+    def _wx_track(self, now) -> None:
+        """TARIFF-24, once per cycle, before the plan: with a forecast read,
+        remember when the run now under way (cheap, give or sell) ends."""
+        if self.solar_fc is None:
+            return
+        rp = self.mode_runs
+        ends = []
+        if rp is not None and rp.on:
+            ends = [r.end for r in (rp.cheap, rp.sell)
+                    if r is not None and r.holds(now)]
+            g = rp.give_at(now)
+            if g is not None:
+                ends.append(g.end)
+        self._wx_free_to = max(ends) if ends else None
+
+    def weather_held(self, now) -> bool:
+        """TARIFF-24: no forecast now, but a run planned with one is under
+        way: it keeps its gap to its end. The wider gap applies from the next
+        run. Pure; Home asks the same (`homeview.trade_verdict()`)."""
+        return (self.solar_fc is None and self._wx_free_to is not None
+                and now < self._wx_free_to)
+
     def _price_runs(self, now, packs, floor_pct, ceiling_pct):
         """The kept run plan, rebuilt at most once per price slot (15 min) or
         when the prices or a battery's choice change; a run under way is
@@ -2239,9 +2264,11 @@ class Controller:
         slot = int(now.timestamp() // 900)
         key = (id(plan), slot, tuple((p.name, p.use, p.mode, p.sell)
                                      for p in packs))
+        held = self.weather_held(now)
         if self.fc_entity is not None:
-            # P4: a forecast arriving or going rebuilds the plan at once.
-            key += (self.solar_fc is None,)
+            # P4: a forecast arriving or going rebuilds the plan at once (and
+            # so does the end of a run that held the gap, TARIFF-24).
+            key += (self.solar_fc is None, held)
         if key != self._runs_key:
             done_c = self._run_done.get("charge", (None, set()))[1]
             done_s = self._run_done.get("sell", (None, set()))[1]
@@ -2250,7 +2277,7 @@ class Controller:
             required = price_required_spread(
                 arbitrage.threshold_eur_kwh(self.o),
                 price_uncertainty_of(plan.read.product)
-                | arbitrage.weather_uncertainty(True, self.solar_fc))
+                | arbitrage.weather_uncertainty(True, self.solar_fc, held))
             ref = self._ref_cheap
             if ref is not None and now - ref.end > REF_CHEAP_KEEP:
                 ref = self._ref_cheap = None
@@ -2319,6 +2346,7 @@ class Controller:
         quarter), exactly the gate `arbitrage.decide()` has."""
         floor_pct, ceiling_pct = arbitrage.soc_bounds(self.o)
         packs = self._mode_packs(maint_results)
+        self._wx_track(now)
         runs = self._price_runs(now, packs, floor_pct, ceiling_pct)
         guard = arbitrage.guard_state(self.peak_guard)
         plan = self.fresh_tariff_plan(now)
@@ -2329,7 +2357,8 @@ class Controller:
             return plan.arbitrage(
                 peak_guard_active=active,
                 min_spread_eur_kwh=arbitrage.threshold_eur_kwh(self.o),
-                uncertainty=arbitrage.weather_uncertainty(True, self.solar_fc),
+                uncertainty=arbitrage.weather_uncertainty(
+                    True, self.solar_fc, self.weather_held(now)),
                 now=now).match(
                     allowed=lambda _v: True, refused=lambda _v: False)
         if guard is not None and plan is not None and runs is not None:

goodwe_controller/test_modes_p4.py

@@ -614,6 +614,35 @@ check("sunny: a day plan is made, and says sunny",
           for r in rows))
 check("sunny: no grid charge at all", not charge)
 
+# TARIFF-24 round 2: the same day at the cycle cost 0.20 itself. With the
+# forecast read the gap needed is 0.20 (not 1.5 x = 0.30), so the midday
+# quarter 0.339 against the evening 0.551 (gap 0.21, between 1x and 1.5x) is
+# a planned top-up for B (Leftover solar) up to its planned level.
+rows_g, st_, c_g = run_day(SF_LS, fc=40.0, soc0={"a": 60.0, "b": 30.0})
+charge_g = invariants("gap between 1x and 1.5x", rows_g, c_g)
+_first_g = nth(charge_g, 0, "a charge cycle")
+_gaps = [min(g.mean_eur_kwh for g in r["runs"].give)
+         - r["runs"].cheap.mean_eur_kwh for r in charge_g
+         if r["runs"] is not None and r["runs"].give]
+print(f"    gap 0.20 <= gap < 0.30: {len(charge_g)} charge cycles, run gap "
+      f"{min(_gaps, default=0):.3f}, B to "
+      f"{max((r['soc']['b'] for r in rows_g), default=0):.1f} %")
+check("a forecast day whose price gap lies between 1x and 1.5x the cycle "
+      "cost (0.20 < 0.21 < 0.30) plans a cheap run: B charges from the grid "
+      "inside it, only B, and only up to its planned level",
+      present(_first_g) and len(_gaps) == len(charge_g)
+      and all(0.20 <= g < 0.30 for g in _gaps)
+      and all(r["runs"].cheap.holds(r["now"]) for r in charge_g)
+      and all(r["roles"][B] == modetrade.CHARGE for r in charge_g)
+      and all(r["roles"][A] != modetrade.CHARGE for r in charge_g)
+      and max(r["soc"]["b"] for r in rows_g) <= 45.64 + 2.0)
+check("...and the same day with no forecast read does not (it needs 0.30): "
+      "the old gate, kept for a day without a forecast",
+      not [r for r in run_day(SF_LS, fc=None,
+                              soc0={"a": 60.0, "b": 30.0})[0]
+           if r["action"] == arbitrage.CHARGE
+           and r["now"].astimezone(L).hour == 12])
+
 # Dark: 1 kWh. B buys the evening's shortfall only, in the cheap run.
 rows, st_, c = run_day(SF_LS, fc=1.0, soc0={"a": 60.0, "b": 30.0})
 charge = invariants("dark", rows, c)

goodwe_controller/test_tariff24_weather.py

@@ -14,8 +14,10 @@ DECISIONS/TARIFF-24-modes-need-the-tariff-task.md.
    0.105 and the reason is `not_worth` / "Prices differ too little".
 3. A dynamic day with a 0.12 gap at cost 0.10: on with a forecast, not worth
    without.
-4. The forecast going and coming mid-run: the gate follows in the same cycle
-   the forecast read changes, both ways.
+4. The forecast coming (the gate follows in the same cycle) and going mid-run:
+   a run under way keeps its gap to its end, the next run needs the wider one;
+   a forecast unavailable for one or two reads mid-run does not stop or
+   restart the charge.
 5. Home agrees with control in each case (Batteries Why, Home line, and
    `trade_verdict()`, Home's mirror of the gate).
 
@@ -69,6 +71,7 @@ NIGHT = datetime(2026, 10, 30, 23, 0, tzinfo=L).astimezone(timezone.utc)
 CHOICE = {"a": (True, "leftover_solar", False),
           "b": (True, "cheap_hours", False)}
 FC_TODAY, FC_TOMORROW = "sensor.fc_today", "sensor.fc_tomorrow"
+TARIFF_REFRESH_S = m.TARIFF_REFRESH_S
 
 
 def opts(cost, *, arb=False, sensors=True):
@@ -108,8 +111,23 @@ def forecast_mode(mode, t, now):
     return at
 
 
+def take(c, now):
+    """What Home and the Batteries screen say now, and Home's mirror of the
+    gate (it reads the trade switch, so ask it as a site that has it on next
+    to the modes)."""
+    keep = c.o
+    c.o = dict(keep, arbitrage_enabled=True)
+    try:
+        mirror, why = homeview.trade_verdict(c, c.fresh_tariff_plan(now), now)
+    finally:
+        c.o = keep
+    return dict(home=homeview.build_plan(c, now, False, True),
+                cards=homeview.battery_rows(c, False, True),
+                mirror=mirror, mirror_why=why)
+
+
 def drive(o, *, fc="fresh", points=None, minutes=20, tick=5.0,
-          house_w=300.0, soc0=None):
+          house_w=300.0, soc0=None, snap_at=()):
     """-> (controller, rows). `points`: a feed-shaped plan injected every
     cycle (no task); else the static profile via the real tariff task."""
     store = rp._Store()
@@ -118,6 +136,7 @@ def drive(o, *, fc="fresh", points=None, minutes=20, tick=5.0,
                        ("pack_sell", sell)):
             store.data[unit_key(f"inverter-{u}", k)] = val
     rows = []
+    snaps = {}
 
     class H(rp.Hass):
         async def state(self, e):
@@ -163,9 +182,19 @@ def drive(o, *, fc="fresh", points=None, minutes=20, tick=5.0,
                                          "generic_dayahead", now), None,
                         "provider")
                     c.tariff_at = now
-                elif t == 0.0:
+                elif t == 0.0 or t % TARIFF_REFRESH_S == 0.0:
+                    # The task's own 30 min wait is wall clock, so the
+                    # simulated clock restarts it: one refresh per period.
+                    if task is not None and t > 0.0:
+                        task.cancel()
+                        try:
+                            await task
+                        except asyncio.CancelledError:
+                            pass
+                        task = asyncio.create_task(c.run_tariff_refresh())
                     for _ in range(500):
-                        if c.tariff_plan is not None:
+                        if c.tariff_plan is not None and (
+                                c.tariff_at is not None and c.tariff_at >= now):
                             break
                         await asyncio.sleep(0)
                 imp, exp = split_signed(hass.grid())
@@ -182,18 +211,17 @@ def drive(o, *, fc="fresh", points=None, minutes=20, tick=5.0,
                     reason=None if rp_ is None else rp_.reason,
                     roles=dict(c.mode_tick.roles) if c.mode_tick else {},
                     why=None if c.mode_tick is None else c.mode_tick.why,
-                    charging=hass.plants["b"].p < -200.0))
+                    charging=hass.plants["b"].p < -200.0,
+                    soc_b=hass.plants["b"].soc,
+                    cheap_end=None if rp_ is None or rp_.cheap is None
+                    else rp_.cheap.end))
+                if t in snap_at:
+                    snaps[t] = take(c, now)
                 t += tick
-            c.home_plan = homeview.build_plan(c, clock[0], False, True)
-            c.cards = homeview.battery_rows(c, False, True)
-            # Home's mirror of the gate (it reads the trade switch, so ask it
-            # as a site that has it on next to the modes).
-            c2 = c
-            c2.o = dict(c.o, arbitrage_enabled=True)
-            c.mirror, c.mirror_why = homeview.trade_verdict(
-                c2, c.fresh_tariff_plan(clock[0]), clock[0])
-            c.o = dict(c.o, arbitrage_enabled=o.get("arbitrage_enabled",
-                                                    False))
+            last = take(c, clock[0])
+            c.home_plan, c.cards = last["home"], last["cards"]
+            c.mirror, c.mirror_why = last["mirror"], last["mirror_why"]
+            c.snaps = snaps
         finally:
             if task is not None:
                 task.cancel()
@@ -274,8 +302,9 @@ check("without one it is not_worth (needs 0.15 > 0.12) and says so",
       and why_of(cn, B) == "no_spread")
 
 # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- #
-print("\n4. the forecast going and coming mid-run")
+print("\n4. the forecast going and coming mid-run (a run under way keeps its gap)")
 CUT = 600.0                      # 10 min in
+SOC = {"a": 40.0, "b": 60.0}     # B's cheap run is then about 2 h
 
 
 def going(t):
@@ -286,8 +315,73 @@ def coming(t):
     return "gone" if t < CUT else "fresh"
 
 
-cg, rg = drive(opts(0.07), fc=going, minutes=25)
+def flap(n_reads):
+    """Unavailable for `n_reads` forecast reads (60 s apart) from CUT."""
+    return lambda t: "gone" if CUT <= t < CUT + 60.0 * n_reads else "fresh"
+
+
+MID, AFTER = 3000.0, 7800.0
+cg, rg = drive(opts(0.07), fc=going, minutes=135, soc0=SOC,
+               snap_at=(MID, AFTER))
 cc, rc = drive(opts(0.07), fc=coming, minutes=25)
+_end = nth([r["cheap_end"] for r in rg if r["cheap_end"] is not None], 0,
+           "the cheap run's end")
+_end_t = (_end - NIGHT).total_seconds() if present(_end) else 1e9
+lost = [r for r in rg if r["fc_none"]]
+print(f"    going: cheap run ends at t={_end_t:.0f} s; forecast lost from "
+      f"t={lost[0]['t'] if lost else None}")
+check("going: the run planned with the forecast ends before the snapshot "
+      "taken after it (the scenario is long enough)",
+      present(_end) and CUT + 300.0 < _end_t < AFTER - 300.0 and bool(lost)
+      and lost[0]["t"] - CUT <= 60.0)
+check("going: the forecast read is lost mid-run and the run under way KEEPS "
+      "its gap: the plan stays on and B keeps charging, cycle after cycle, "
+      "until B is full or the run ends",
+      all(r["runs_on"] is True and (r["roles"].get(B) == modetrade.CHARGE
+                                    or r["soc_b"] >= 94.0)
+          for r in rg if r["fc_none"] and r["t"] < _end_t - 60.0)
+      and all(r["charging"] or r["soc_b"] >= 94.0 for r in rg
+              if 60.0 <= r["t"] < _end_t - 60.0)
+      and max(r["soc_b"] for r in rg if r["fc_none"]) >= 90.0)
+check("going: from the run's end the wider gap is back: the next run is "
+      "not_worth (needs 0.105 at 0.07), no new run, and no grid charge",
+      all(r["runs_on"] is False and r["reason"] == "not_worth"
+          for r in rg if r["t"] >= _end_t + 30.0)
+      and not any(r["charging"] for r in rg if r["t"] >= _end_t + 60.0))
+_sm, _sa = cg.snaps.get(MID), cg.snaps.get(AFTER)
+check("going, Home agrees mid-run: its mirror still allows, the Batteries "
+      "screen says it charges from the grid, and Home does not say the gap "
+      "is too small",
+      _sm is not None and _sm["mirror"] is not None
+      and first((b for b in _sm["cards"] if b["name"] == B),
+                "a card")["why_key"] == "grid_charge"
+      and not any("price gap is too small" in ln
+                  for ln in _sm["home"]["lines"]))
+check("going, Home agrees after the run: its mirror refuses, the Batteries "
+      "screen says 'differ too little' and Home says the gap is too small",
+      _sa is not None and _sa["mirror"] is None
+      and first((b for b in _sa["cards"] if b["name"] == B),
+                "a card")["why_key"] == "no_spread"
+      and any("price gap is too small" in ln for ln in _sa["home"]["lines"]))
+for n in (1, 2):
+    cf, rf = drive(opts(0.07), fc=flap(n), minutes=30, soc0=SOC,
+                   snap_at=(CUT + 30.0,))
+    gone = [r for r in rf if r["fc_none"]]
+    print(f"    flap, {n} read(s) lost: {len(gone)} cycles without a "
+          f"forecast; B charging in {sum(r['charging'] for r in rf)} of "
+          f"{len(rf)}")
+    check(f"flap: the forecast is unavailable for {n} read(s) mid-run: the "
+          f"plan stays on and B charges without a break (no stop, no "
+          f"restart)",
+          bool(gone) and all(r["runs_on"] is True for r in rf)
+          and all(r["charging"] and r["roles"].get(B) == modetrade.CHARGE
+                  for r in rf if r["t"] >= 60.0))
+    sf = cf.snaps.get(CUT + 30.0)
+    check(f"flap, {n} read(s): Home agrees while the read is lost (mirror "
+          f"allows, Batteries 'charges from the grid')",
+          sf is not None and sf["mirror"] is not None
+          and first((b for b in sf["cards"] if b["name"] == B),
+                    "a card")["why_key"] == "grid_charge")
 
 
 def flips(rows):
@@ -301,19 +395,10 @@ def flips(rows):
     return out
 
 
-fg, fcm = flips(rg), flips(rc)
-print(f"    going: forecast read lost at cycle/t {fg}; coming: {fcm}")
-check("going: the plan is on with the forecast and not_worth the cycle the "
-      "read is lost (within one forecast read, 60 s, of the sensor change)",
-      len(fg) == 1 and fg[0][1] - CUT <= 60.0 and fg[0][2] is False
-      and all(r["runs_on"] is True for r in rg if not r["fc_none"])
-      and all(r["runs_on"] is False for r in rg if r["fc_none"]))
-check("...and the grid charge stops with it: no charging after the cycle "
-      "that lost the forecast, plus the 15 s the inverter ramp takes",
-      len(fg) == 1 and not any(
-          r["charging"] for r in rg if r["t"] >= fg[0][1] + 40.0))
-check("coming: not_worth until the read is back, then on in the same cycle, "
-      "and the battery charges",
+fcm = flips(rc)
+print(f"    coming: forecast read arrives at cycle/t {fcm}")
+check("coming (no run under way before): not_worth until the read is back, "
+      "then on in the same cycle, and the battery charges",
       len(fcm) == 1 and fcm[0][1] - CUT <= 60.0 and fcm[0][2] is True
       and all(r["runs_on"] is False for r in rc if r["fc_none"])
       and all(r["runs_on"] is True for r in rc if not r["fc_none"])