Merge release/1.0 (OPT-11 P4, #156) into safety-83-peak-over-drain

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

goodwe_controller/DECISIONS/OPT-11-battery-modes.md

@@ -75,3 +75,55 @@ P1 is its section 6 P1, and the pull request lists what was measured.
   P2's 19.33; Solar first + Cheap hours only 19.57.
 - Not done in P3: the forecast (P4), and a headroom too short for the run
   moving the rest to the next cheap periods.
+
+## P4: the solar forecast and the day plan (2026-09-29)
+- Input: a Home Assistant forecast sensor (`pv_forecast_entity`, kWh left
+  today; `pv_forecast_tomorrow_entity` optional), read by `app/solarfc.py`.
+  Supported shapes: Forecast.Solar (state only), Solcast (`detailedForecast`)
+  and Open-Meteo Solar Forecast (`wh_period`). The unit is read, not guessed;
+  older than 3 h is stale (one missed hourly poll must not flag it).
+- Trust: `solar_trust_pct`, default 70 (owner answer 5).
+- House use: nothing the add-on recorded fitted. `tariff.db` holds grid
+  import per quarter, which the batteries shape. So `dayplan.HouseProfile`
+  keeps grid + battery per local hour for 7 days in the store
+  (`house_profile`), median per hour. It is net of the solar the house used,
+  so the solar sum never takes it below the night median. Solar readings are
+  not used (TEL-11). The first plan needs one day of it.
+- Verdict (`dayplan.plan()`): trust x sum max(0, forecast - house) x 0.95
+  until the expensive run the cheap run is for. Solar first takes it first.
+  - Leftover solar may then charge from the grid up to min(ceiling, floor +
+    the house's use in the expensive runs / 0.95), less its sun share: only
+    the shortfall.
+  - Cheap hours only ignores the plan and fills to the ceiling (design
+    section 1; review of #156, see the replay below).
+  - Solar first never charges from the grid (owner, 2026-09-29).
+- The level is kept unless it moves by min(1 kWh, 10 %). With no plan
+  (no, stale or failed forecast, no house profile, no capacity) every mode
+  is P3 option A exactly: `test_modes_p4.py` part 1 pins 12 digests from
+  5a4cdc2 (modes on, with and without an unavailable forecast).
+- The plan is made with the runs (every 15 min, or at once when the forecast
+  comes or goes). A lost forecast drops the levels at the next cycle.
+- Not done: the design's scaling by measured solar from 10:00 (it needs the
+  solar readings TEL-11 keeps out), the HA `goodwe_<inv>_plan` sensor, and
+  FCST-01.
+- Replay (`tools/opt11p4_replay.py`, 16 recorded days, Solar first + Leftover
+  solar, net EUR, lower is better; site solar rebuilt from the recording,
+  forecast errors from Elia's day-ahead Belgian solar forecast):
+  - year-earlier hourly prices: P2 19.33, P3 option A 19.44, old one-period
+    trade 18.14, P4 19.15 (perfect forecast 19.14, 1.5 x too high 19.16,
+    missing 19.44);
+  - the days' real 2026 quarter-hourly prices (held out): P2 32.26, option A
+    32.01, old trade 31.40, P4 29.19 (perfect 29.21, too high 29.28, missing
+    32.01).
+  - Solar first + Cheap hours only, skipping its sun share (the first
+    build): 19.57 (same as P3) and 29.72 against P3's 29.41. The shorter,
+    moved runs left B lower, so later midday top-ups rested A while the sun
+    shone. Cheap hours now ignores the plan, which is P3 exactly.
+  - A forecast of no sun at all gives 19.14 and 29.33. So nearly all of the
+    gain is Leftover solar buying the evening's shortfall in the cheap run;
+    the forecast itself was worth 0.14 EUR in 16 September days.
+  - Bias: the site's solar is rebuilt from the same net use the replay
+    plays, and "recorded" keeps its hourly shape and adds only the national
+    daily error. Both favour P4; "national" (no house leakage) gives 29.25.
+  No threshold was tuned to these days. The 2026-09-24 PV recording could not
+  be replayed: it is only in the live Home Assistant.