TARIFF-24 round 2: a usable solar forecast replaces the "no weather" x1.5 (AUDIT-02 F1)

With battery modes on, the price gap a mode needs was always widened x1.5 by
Uncertainty.NO_WEATHER, even with a solar forecast read, so a 0.08 day/night
gap never traded at the shipped cycle cost. The doubt is now added only when
no usable forecast is read (solar_fc is None, the day plan's own test), in the
run plan (_price_runs), the charge gate (_mode_roles) and Home's mirror
(homeview.trade_verdict). The rule is one helper, arbitrage.weather_uncertainty();
the modes-off trade path (main.py cycle) keeps its literal NO_WEATHER.

DOCS "Battery modes" sentence, CHANGELOG 0.19.1 line and the DECISIONS note
follow. Tests: test_tariff24_weather.py.

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

goodwe_controller/app/arbitrage.py

@@ -147,7 +147,7 @@ from dataclasses import dataclass
 from datetime import datetime
 
 from .arbiter import ACTUATOR_SITE, P_ARBITRAGE, Claim
-from .price import Absence, price_option
+from .price import Absence, Uncertainty, price_option
 
 _LOG = logging.getLogger("goodwe.arbitrage")
 
@@ -267,6 +267,19 @@ def threshold_eur_kwh(opts: dict) -> float:
     return v
 
 
+def weather_uncertainty(modes_on: bool, solar_fc) -> frozenset:
+    """The "no weather" doubt (x1.5) a trade must clear. TARIFF-24.
+
+    Battery modes read a solar forecast; with one read (`solar_fc` not None) the
+    doubt is gone. Everything else, and the modes without a forecast, keep it.
+    One rule for the run plan, the charge gate and Home's mirror of it. See
+    DECISIONS/TARIFF-24-modes-need-the-tariff-task.md.
+    """
+    if modes_on and solar_fc is not None:
+        return frozenset()
+    return frozenset({Uncertainty.NO_WEATHER})
+
+
 def soc_bounds(opts: dict) -> tuple:
     """(floor, ceiling) in percent. The reserve arbitrage may not spend."""
     return (float(price_option(opts, "arbitrage_soc_floor")),

goodwe_controller/app/homeview.py

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ from . import arbitrage, messages, peakguard, uitext
 from .maintenance import CHARGE as M_CHARGE, DRAIN as M_DRAIN, HOLD as M_HOLD
 from .maintenance import IDLE as M_IDLE, next_slot_start
 from .packmode import CHEAP_HOURS, GRID_CHARGE_MODES, LEFTOVER_SOLAR, SOLAR_FIRST
-from .price import Absence, Uncertainty, brussels, _cover_table
+from .price import Absence, brussels, _cover_table
 from .static_tariff import static_plan
 from .tariff import BILLING_TZ
 from .uimodel import REGION_PRESETS, options_to_ui
@@ -277,7 +277,9 @@ def trade_verdict(c, plan, now):
         return None, "no_prices"
     verdict = plan.arbitrage(peak_guard_active=guard,
                              min_spread_eur_kwh=arbitrage.threshold_eur_kwh(c.o),
-                             uncertainty=frozenset({Uncertainty.NO_WEATHER}),
+                             uncertainty=arbitrage.weather_uncertainty(
+                                 bool(getattr(c, "modes_on", False)),
+                                 getattr(c, "solar_fc", None)),
                              now=now)
     return verdict.match(
         allowed=lambda v: (v, "allowed"),

goodwe_controller/app/main.py

@@ -2250,7 +2250,7 @@ class Controller:
             required = price_required_spread(
                 arbitrage.threshold_eur_kwh(self.o),
                 price_uncertainty_of(plan.read.product)
-                | {Uncertainty.NO_WEATHER})
+                | arbitrage.weather_uncertainty(True, self.solar_fc))
             ref = self._ref_cheap
             if ref is not None and now - ref.end > REF_CHEAP_KEEP:
                 ref = self._ref_cheap = None
@@ -2329,7 +2329,7 @@ class Controller:
             return plan.arbitrage(
                 peak_guard_active=active,
                 min_spread_eur_kwh=arbitrage.threshold_eur_kwh(self.o),
-                uncertainty=frozenset({Uncertainty.NO_WEATHER}),
+                uncertainty=arbitrage.weather_uncertainty(True, self.solar_fc),
                 now=now).match(
                     allowed=lambda _v: True, refused=lambda _v: False)
         if guard is not None and plan is not None and runs is not None: