OPT-11 P4 review: records and text
- DECISIONS: the Cheap hours change and why; the no-sun replay (the gain is Leftover solar buying the evening's shortfall; the forecast added 0.14 EUR); the reconstruction bias stated plainly. - DOCS: Cheap hours ignores the forecast; a reading from before midnight is stale. - The forecast line: "Solar still to come today: ..." (it is what is left, and it stays within the 12-word limit). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -94,7 +94,8 @@ P1 is its section 6 P1, and the pull request lists what was measured.
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- Leftover solar may then charge from the grid up to min(ceiling, floor +
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the house's use in the expensive runs / 0.95), less its sun share: only
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the shortfall.
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- Cheap hours only charges up to the ceiling less its sun share.
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- Cheap hours only ignores the plan and fills to the ceiling (design
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section 1; review of #156, see the replay below).
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- Solar first never charges from the grid (owner, 2026-09-29).
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- The level is kept unless it moves by min(1 kWh, 10 %). With no plan
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(no, stale or failed forecast, no house profile, no capacity) every mode
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@@ -114,9 +115,15 @@ P1 is its section 6 P1, and the pull request lists what was measured.
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- the days' real 2026 quarter-hourly prices (held out): P2 32.26, option A
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32.01, old trade 31.40, P4 29.19 (perfect 29.21, too high 29.28, missing
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32.01).
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- Solar first + Cheap hours only: 19.57 on both P3 and P4 (year-earlier
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prices); on real 2026 prices P4 29.72 against P3's 29.41. Skipping the
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sun's share does not pay for Cheap hours there; Leftover solar is the
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mode the forecast pays for.
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- Solar first + Cheap hours only, skipping its sun share (the first
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build): 19.57 (same as P3) and 29.72 against P3's 29.41. The shorter,
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moved runs left B lower, so later midday top-ups rested A while the sun
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shone. Cheap hours now ignores the plan, which is P3 exactly.
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- A forecast of no sun at all gives 19.14 and 29.33. So nearly all of the
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gain is Leftover solar buying the evening's shortfall in the cheap run;
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the forecast itself was worth 0.14 EUR in 16 September days.
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- Bias: the site's solar is rebuilt from the same net use the replay
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plays, and "recorded" keeps its hourly shape and adds only the national
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daily error. Both favour P4; "national" (no house leakage) gives 29.25.
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No threshold was tuned to these days. The 2026-09-24 PV recording could not
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be replayed: it is only in the live Home Assistant.
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