Merge release/1.0 (e3e4ba6) into opt15-price-run-fixes

Conflicts (5 files, 9 hunks) resolved keeping both sides:
- p1.py: held_t (OPT-15) beside held_since (SAFETY-90).
- modetrade.py: chargers() takes targets (P4) and probe (OPT-15); decide()
  clears the chargers, a probing refuser included, while a battery drains
  (SAFETY-78); the docstring lists both rules.
- main.py: the roll goes into the SAFETY-90/91 projection chain
  (`_peak_proj`); the SAFETY-95 drain-tail grid_w keeps the run-edge hold on
  its other branch; the P4 forecast state and the hold state both stay.
- DOCS.md, DECISIONS: both lines kept, OPT-15 item refreshed.

Adaptations the merge needs:
- SAFETY-81 x F1: a rolled projection is not graded by the saturation alarm
  until the quarter's first sample, as the old edge tick was not, so a
  standing overload is still notified once per quarter.
- test_safety81, test_modes_p4: modes-on pins re-pinned (with a note), modes
  off pinned to e3e4ba6; test_price_run_fixes: identity pins on e3e4ba6,
  F1 reproduced at one inverter (SAFETY-91 already holds two), tests for the
  drain and the day plan against the probe.

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

goodwe_controller/DECISIONS/OPT-11-battery-modes.md

@@ -75,7 +75,8 @@ P1 is its section 6 P1, and the pull request lists what was measured.
   P2's 19.33; Solar first + Cheap hours only 19.57.
 - Not done in P3: the forecast (P4), and a headroom too short for the run
   moving the rest to the next cheap periods.
-- OPT-15 (TEST-23 findings on 5a4cdc2, `test_price_run_fixes.py`):
+- OPT-15 (TEST-23 findings on 5a4cdc2, merged up to e3e4ba6,
+  `test_price_run_fixes.py`):
   - F1, a charge stopped at a quarter edge and latched for the quarter. The
     P1 averager opens a quarter only when a sample arrives, and the HA source
     builds one 0.35 s after the reading, so the cycle on the boundary still
@@ -84,6 +85,15 @@ P1 is its section 6 P1, and the pull request lists what was measured.
     projects the quarter `now` is in (`PeakTracker.project(roll=True)`,
     crediting the held sample as the averager will), and only a measured
     stop latches. Modes off still reads the old block (identity).
+    Since SAFETY-91, `next_quarter()` does the same for the guard at two
+    inverters (no stop there without the roll, same banked quarters); the
+    roll is what covers one inverter, where the old projection stops the
+    charge at every edge. With modes on at one inverter the roll also removes
+    the 1 s 0 W command at each quarter edge that SAFETY-81's sim showed, so
+    its modes-on digests are re-pinned (modes off equal to e3e4ba6). A
+    rolled projection is not graded by SAFETY-81's alarm (the old edge tick
+    read "no seconds left"), so a standing overload is still notified once
+    per quarter.
   - F2, -1120 W export at a charge end against -257 W modelled. The replay
     acted every 5 s on readings of that instant, and by then the lagged
     battery had nearly arrived, so it never acted on a reading that still
@@ -93,21 +103,81 @@ P1 is its section 6 P1, and the pull request lists what was measured.
     reaches the target (or `EDGE_HOLD_S`, 18 s; to 36 s while the battery
     still moves). The replay gained `Lag` (dead time, reading age, the P1
     debounce, 1 s cycles). Charge end, 800 W house: -10 to -51 W over eight
-    lag variants; without the hold -1370 W (meter 2 s).
+    lag variants; without the hold -1370 W (meter 2 s). On e3e4ba6 the same
+    numbers hold. The hold gives the loop the target as its grid, so it
+    yields to SAFETY-95's drain tail, and any other claim that moves the
+    command ends it.
   - F3, a charge refusal in a cheap run was never probed: the SAFETY-73 pin
     stands only while the site asks that way, and nothing asked to charge.
     Probing was chosen over changing the card: the probe is 200 W for 34 s
     each 15 min under the same peak gates, and it wins back the run. In its
     probe window the refusing battery is a charger, pinned at 200 W by its
-    own claim, and the others rest. At one inverter SAFETY-52 already ends a
-    charge refusal as soon as the house asks for power.
-  - Not fixed, same on 5a4cdc2: with lagged readings a headroom-sized quarter
+    own claim, and the others rest. A monthly drain (SAFETY-78) still comes
+    first, and with a day plan a probing Leftover solar battery goes only to
+    its planned level. At one inverter SAFETY-52 already ends a charge
+    refusal as soon as the house asks for power.
+  - Not fixed, same on e3e4ba6: with lagged readings a headroom-sized quarter
     banks up to 1.4 W over the aim (48.6 W under the cap), and a battery
     reading older than the meter can make a charge start look like a house
     over the aim, a real guard stop.
   - Review: an unmeasured stop that never latched let a headroom missing
     every other cycle flip the charge 1799 times in 30 min, so the second one
-    in a quarter latches (at most 4 changes a quarter). House steps of +3 and
-    +5 kW during the hold, N=1 and 2: the peak guard's floor ends the hold at
-    once, and no banked quarter differs from the loop without the hold by
-    more than +33 W (1342 W, far under the aim).
+    in a quarter latches (at most 4 changes a quarter). A house that rises
+    1, 2 or 3 kW as the charge ends, from 30 s into the quarter to 15 s
+    before its end (two inverters, lagged readings): the hold adds at most
+    +33 W to that quarter against the loop without it, and the most any
+    quarter banks is 3431 W with the charge sized to the aim (3450 W; the cap
+    is 3500 W). The import during the hold is the rise, below the charge's
+    own, and a rise past that is the peak floor's, which ends the hold.
+
+## P4: the solar forecast and the day plan (2026-09-29)
+- Input: a Home Assistant forecast sensor (`pv_forecast_entity`, kWh left
+  today; `pv_forecast_tomorrow_entity` optional), read by `app/solarfc.py`.
+  Supported shapes: Forecast.Solar (state only), Solcast (`detailedForecast`)
+  and Open-Meteo Solar Forecast (`wh_period`). The unit is read, not guessed;
+  older than 3 h is stale (one missed hourly poll must not flag it).
+- Trust: `solar_trust_pct`, default 70 (owner answer 5).
+- House use: nothing the add-on recorded fitted. `tariff.db` holds grid
+  import per quarter, which the batteries shape. So `dayplan.HouseProfile`
+  keeps grid + battery per local hour for 7 days in the store
+  (`house_profile`), median per hour. It is net of the solar the house used,
+  so the solar sum never takes it below the night median. Solar readings are
+  not used (TEL-11). The first plan needs one day of it.
+- Verdict (`dayplan.plan()`): trust x sum max(0, forecast - house) x 0.95
+  until the expensive run the cheap run is for. Solar first takes it first.
+  - Leftover solar may then charge from the grid up to min(ceiling, floor +
+    the house's use in the expensive runs / 0.95), less its sun share: only
+    the shortfall.
+  - Cheap hours only ignores the plan and fills to the ceiling (design
+    section 1; review of #156, see the replay below).
+  - Solar first never charges from the grid (owner, 2026-09-29).
+- The level is kept unless it moves by min(1 kWh, 10 %). With no plan
+  (no, stale or failed forecast, no house profile, no capacity) every mode
+  is P3 option A exactly: `test_modes_p4.py` part 1 pins 12 digests from
+  5a4cdc2 (modes on, with and without an unavailable forecast).
+- The plan is made with the runs (every 15 min, or at once when the forecast
+  comes or goes). A lost forecast drops the levels at the next cycle.
+- Not done: the design's scaling by measured solar from 10:00 (it needs the
+  solar readings TEL-11 keeps out), the HA `goodwe_<inv>_plan` sensor, and
+  FCST-01.
+- Replay (`tools/opt11p4_replay.py`, 16 recorded days, Solar first + Leftover
+  solar, net EUR, lower is better; site solar rebuilt from the recording,
+  forecast errors from Elia's day-ahead Belgian solar forecast):
+  - year-earlier hourly prices: P2 19.33, P3 option A 19.44, old one-period
+    trade 18.14, P4 19.15 (perfect forecast 19.14, 1.5 x too high 19.16,
+    missing 19.44);
+  - the days' real 2026 quarter-hourly prices (held out): P2 32.26, option A
+    32.01, old trade 31.40, P4 29.19 (perfect 29.21, too high 29.28, missing
+    32.01).
+  - Solar first + Cheap hours only, skipping its sun share (the first
+    build): 19.57 (same as P3) and 29.72 against P3's 29.41. The shorter,
+    moved runs left B lower, so later midday top-ups rested A while the sun
+    shone. Cheap hours now ignores the plan, which is P3 exactly.
+  - A forecast of no sun at all gives 19.14 and 29.33. So nearly all of the
+    gain is Leftover solar buying the evening's shortfall in the cheap run;
+    the forecast itself was worth 0.14 EUR in 16 September days.
+  - Bias: the site's solar is rebuilt from the same net use the replay
+    plays, and "recorded" keeps its hourly shape and adds only the national
+    daily error. Both favour P4; "national" (no house leakage) gives 29.25.
+  No threshold was tuned to these days. The 2026-09-24 PV recording could not
+  be replayed: it is only in the live Home Assistant.